251
FXUS65 KPSR 071115
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue through at
  least the next 7 days.

- Temperatures will warm over the weekend and through the upcoming
  workweek, likely reaching 8 to 12 degrees above daily normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Objective analysis and water vapor satellite imagery early this
morning show a high pressure system centered over the eastern
Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of southern California, along with
longwave troughing over the eastern two thirds of CONUS. The
aforementioned ridge will remain stalled over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, but strengthen over the next couple of days. Even though
the ridge is centered over the eastern Pacific, much of western
CONUS is under the influence of its eastern flank. Over the next
couple of days, the ridge will strengthen and the aforementioned
longwave trough will move eastward, heights over the Desert
Southwest will slowly rise. This will lead to a gradual warming
trend resulting in temperatures 4-8 degrees above normal.
Afternoon high temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low
to mid 70s across the lower deserts and in the mid to upper 60s
across the higher terrain. With the ridge to the west of our
region, the Desert Southwest will be under dry N/NW flow which
will promote the continuation of dry tranquil weather conditions.
Skies will also remain mostly clear with only some occasional
passing mid and high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...
Models continue to be in great agreement that the ridge will remain
stalled off the west coast of California through the middle of this
coming week, keeping much of western CONUS under the influence of
the eastern flank of the ridge. Multiple shortwaves will be moving
from the Pacific NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains
that will temporally dampen the ridge, but, it will quickly rebound.
If any of these shortwaves are able to push into the Desert
Southwest at all, it would briefly stall our warming trend for a
day. Nevertheless, afternoon high temperatures, region wide, will
gradually warm to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle of
next week. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid
to upper 70s and near 80F in some places across the lower deserts,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the higher terrain.

By the end of the week and heading into next weekend, the ridge will
finally push onshore with the center of the ridge eventually moving
over the Desert Southwest during the weekend. The ridge will be
weakening as it moves onshore, however, with it moving directly
overhead temperatures will continue to gradually warm. H5 heights
will rise into the 583-586 dm range by the end of next week and
heading into next weekend. This will result in afternoon high
temperatures 10-12 degrees above normal and morning low temperatures
6-8 degrees above normal. For the end of next week, afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 70s across the higher
terrain. Morning lows are forecast to be in the 50s across the lower
deserts and in the 40s across the higher terrain. Additionally with
the ridge continuing to dominate the region, dry and tranquil
conditions will continue through at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period under
mostly clear skies. Winds will continue to follow their typical
diurnal tendencies and remain light, generally aob 5 kt, with
extended periods of light and variable to calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will prevail across the region through this coming
week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to
10-12 degrees above normal by the end of this week. Winds will
generally remain light and terrain-driven. Humidities over the
next week will stay elevated with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging
between 20-30%, followed by good to excellent overnight
recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich