366
FXUS65 KPSR 102249
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
348 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will be common across the region
over the next several days with some locations flirting with record
highs heading into the end of the week.

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail for at least the next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current upper-air analysis shows unseasonably strong high pressure
dominating over the southwestern CONUS, pushing any significant
weather well off to our north. This ridge will be the main feature
for the region through the end of the work week with heights near or
exceeding the 90th percentile (582-585 dm) for this time of year.
The higher heights, indicative of warmer air throughout the
atmospheric column, will translate to well above normal temperatures
at the surface. In fact, the most recent trends have the ridge
slightly stronger than previous model runs so forecasted temps have
ticked up a bit for the next few days. Readings through the end of
the work week for lower desert areas now look solidly in the middle
70s to lower 80s, with the upper end of that range now looking more
common for Thursday and Friday. In response to this slightly warmer
forecast, probabilities for record highs being reached or broken
have gone up with Phoenix now having around a 50% chance of at least
tying the Friday record high of 79 degrees set in 2010.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/...
The weather pattern over the weekend and likely through most if not
all of next week will continue to support ridging mostly dominating
across the Southwestern U.S. The ridge to our west is expected to
weaken over the weekend as one or two very weak shortwave troughs
try to undercut or move into the ridge. These disturbances should
lead to the ridge weakening or even pushing through and then to the
east of our region by Sunday or Monday, but H5 heights are not
expected to drop all that much. The near 80 degree daily highs are
likely to persist through at least Saturday and maybe even Sunday
before the lower heights bring highs more into a 74-77 degree range
by early next week. The disruption of the ridge should also result
in periods of higher level clouds moving through the region.

Model guidance shows very good agreement in rebuilding the ridge
again to our west by next Tuesday before moving back over our region
by next Wednesday or Thursday. Both the GEFS and EPS show mean H5
heights staying between 579-582dm through all of next week which
should keep daytime highs well into the 70s, but slightly cooler
than what we will see over the next couple of days. Guidance shows
no precipitation chances through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2248Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather issues will exist through Thursday evening under clear
skies. Wind tendencies will be very similar to the past 24 hours
with only a brief late afternoon/early evening W/NW switch the
Phoenix metro. Winds will tend to predominantly favor the W/NW
trajectories across SE California. Extended periods of calm
conditions will continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region through this
week. Temperatures will be above normal and gradually warm to 8-13
degrees above normal by the end of the week. A dry weather system
toward the middle of next week may enhance winds. Otherwise, winds
will remain light every day and follow diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay above critical levels with
afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-25%, followed by good
overnight recoveries to around 50-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/11  81 (1977)
12/12  79 (2010)
12/13  82 (2010)
12/14  78 (2010)
12/15  79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict