481
FXUS65 KPUB 052244
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this
afternoon and again on Sunday, mainly over the mountains and our
eastern plains south of Highway 50.

- Better moisture moves in starting on Monday, with temperatures
slowly dropping a few degrees into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

A few isolated-scattered storms will form over the mountains by mid-
afternoon today, pushing east through early evening. Latest analysis
shows decent CAPE over the plains, though with some stable air in
place capping things (as of 12pm). Storms will initially start out
weak and fairly high-based, with some drier air near the surface.
Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern. As storms approach
the KS border, they will hit better moisture and intensify with one
or two stronger to marginally severe storms possible. These storms
could produce some stronger outflow, as well as some brief heavy
rain and hail. Into the overnight hours, most convection will move
off into Kansas, with a few lingering showers slowly dissipating
over the eastern plains by early Sunday morning.

Sunday...

Models have continued the recent down trend in convective potential
for tomorrow. This is mainly caused by the positioning of the upper
low over the NW CONUS, and changes in the mid-level flow that kicks
the monsoon plume too far west for our area to take advantage. That
being said, some afternoon showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible, mainly confined to the Raton Mesa and portions of our
southernmost plains. Mostly, we`ll be looking at gusty outflow winds
again thanks to drier low-level conditions. Temperatures will be
similar to today, with 80s-90s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Heading into next week, the upper tough will move east through the
Great Basin, sending some shortwave energy into our region. This
will coincide with the monsoon plume and allow for some greater
coverage for showers/storms on Monday. Most activity will be over
and near the higher terrain, while the eastern plains remain hot and
largely dry.

That low moves off to the northeast by midweek, leaving an uncertain
pattern for the rest of this forecast period. Long-range guidance
suggests the presence of a system off the west coast, while keeping
high pressure in place over our area. Beyond that, the behavior and
evolution of the synoptic pattern varies greatly between models and
runs. Overall, daily showers and storms will likely continue for our
mountains due to lingering moisture. Storms will be slow-moving
beneath the lighter winds, so we may see an uptick in flash flooding
concerns. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to decrease a few
degrees, closer to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours.

KALS: Winds will lighten overnight, remaining diurnal into Sunday
morning with mid-level clouds.

KCOS: Showers will linger in the area through about 03Z, with brief
periods of thunderstorm activity possible. Have included a PROB30
for this, given how scattered showers are in the area. Another round
of afternoon storms is expected in the area mid-late Sunday
afternoon.

KPUB: A few showers will linger over the mountains into this
evening. No direct impacts are currently expected at the terminal,
but will still need to monitor for outflow boundaries. Otherwise,
winds remain below 10 knots into Sunday, with more mid-level clouds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO