184
FXUS65 KPUB 101717
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1017 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected for today, with
  gusty west winds over the high country.

- Dry and warm conditions persist through the midweek period.

- Pattern change still anticipated this weekend, with
  precipitation chances increasing, especially along the
  mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Currently..

Cold air continues to filter into the region behind the Great Lakes
low pressure system. Our eastern plains are already seeing
temperatures down into the low 20s as of 2 AM, and could easily fall
into the teens by sunrise. The I-25 corridor is down into the mid
and upper 20s, with our mountain valleys also down in the low
twenties this hour. Dew points are mainly in the teens. Skies are
mostly clear, with a few high clouds over portions of the plains.
Winds are weak at the surface.

Today and Tonight..

Our flow aloft transitions to more northwesterly throughout the day
today, as we come under the influence of the building high to our
southwest. By this evening, we`ll be firmly in northwesterly flow as
we sit in the eastern periphery of the ridge. This transition will
bring in warmer temperatures than yesterday, with many locations
warming to around 5 degrees or so warmer than normal today. Highs
look to climb into the upper 50s for mountain valleys, with low 60s
on our far eastern plains, and mid to upper 60s along the I-25
corridor. High clouds are expected today, along with some breezy
west winds over the high country. Gusts to 30 mph or so will be
possible along the Continental Divide and the top of Pikes Peak.
Precipitation is not expected for any of our areas today. Overnight
lows will be several degrees warmer on our plains, especially for
banana belt locations near the mountains. These areas will likely
see continued mixing well into the evening, keeping over overnight
lows in the low 40s. The Lower Arkansas River Valley may see calmer
winds and therefore lower temperatures, with lows in the upper 20s
and low 30s tonight. The San Luis Valley looks to dip down into the
teens again tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday: Early in the week, quiet weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Ridging and increased subsidence
will remain in place, and given this, along with weak flow, dry
conditions are expected areawide. Along with that, a couple of
amorphous waves/vort maxes will drift over the region, however
influence from these is anticipated to be minimal, with enough
forcing to bring a slight uptick in mid to high level cloud cover.
Otherwise, relatively light winds around and less than 10-15 mph and
warm temperatures is expected. Speaking of temperatures, much of the
area will warm to above seasonal values. With that said, a weak cold
front is expected to sag southward through the day, though this will
have more of an influence on Wednesdays temperatures.

Tuesday Night - Thursday: Through much of the midweek timeframe,
quiet weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Synoptically, ridging will continue to sit over the area, and given
this feature and weak flow, dry conditions are anticipated to
prevail for the region. Again, minor waves/vort maxes may drift over
the area, though any influence from these is expected to be minimal,
with brief increases in cloud cover at most from them. Beyond all of
that, winds will continue to remain relatively light around and less
than 10 mph, with temperatures slightly dropping Wednesday and then
increasing Thursday. Looking at temperatures, while the
aforementioned cold front passage will drop temperatures a tad
Wednesday, values are still expected to remain above seasonal
values. As for Thursday, temperatures will warm back up and remain
well above seasonal values for mid November.

Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend,
active weather makes a return as a pattern change takes place across
south central and southeastern Colorado. Like previous forecast,
will lean heavily on ensemble model guidance given continued run to
run consistency and decent agreement between different ensembles.
With that said, confidence only remains medium (50-60%) on this
pattern evolution given some discrepancies still in how the pattern
change ultimately evolves, especially during Saturday. With that all
said, troughing is expected to develop and start approaching the
region Friday, push across through Saturday, and start to exit the
region through Sunday. As this trough approaches and pushes over,
precipitation is anticipated to increase in coverage, though
particularly along the mountains where where forcing will be
greatest and snow is expected. For the plains and valleys,
confidence is lower on how much precipitation will develop, as that
will be highly dependent on how the trough develops. Then as the
troughing pushes eastward through Sunday, precipitation is expected
to lessen in coverage as forcing and moisture decrease. Beyond
all of that, winds will become more breezy and clouds will
increase in coverage given the more unsettled pattern, with
windiest conditions expected Friday ahead of the approaching
wave. As for temperatures, Friday is anticipated to be the
warmest day given downsloping winds ahead of the trough, with
temperatures then falling Saturday and Sunday given the trough
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1016 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Winds will be fairly light and diurnally driven. Increasing
middle and upper-level cloud cover is expected this evening, and did
mention wind shear for both KCOS and KPUB starting in the 05-07z
time frame.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE