254
FXUS65 KPUB 301156
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
556 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are expected this afternoon, with a couple
  of strong storms possible.

- Decrease in thunderstorm chances expected from Sunday into
  Tuesday.

- Slight upturn in precip chances Wed/Thu with cold front moving
  through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today and Tonight: Saturday will bring another day with shower and
thunderstorm chances. A shortwave embedded in northwesterly flow
will push across the area, bringing continued terrain forcing. Along
with that, northeasterly surface winds will continue across the
eastern plains, bringing modest surface upsloping. In addition, this
flow pattern will start to advect drier air into the region, though
modest moisture will remain in place. Despite the drier air,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected, first blossoming
along the higher terrain by early afternoon, and then spilling
across the valleys and plains by mid to late afternoon. A strong
thunderstorm or two will be possible given strong shear still in
place, however, instability is expected to be limited due to early
day cloud cover, which is expected to keep thunderstorm intensity
lower. With that said, the primary hazard with any stronger storms
are anticipated to be gusty outflow winds and small hail. Heading
into the overnight hours, dry conditions are expected to prevail as
showers and thunderstorms dissipate as instability lessens. Outside
of all of that, winds will remain relatively light around and less
than 10 mph, with partly to mostly cloudy skies through much of this
period, though with clearing skies by Sunday morning. As for
temperatures, highs will remain near to slightly below seasonal
values, with the plains in the mid 70s to low 80s, the valleys in
the 70s, and the mountains in the 50s and 60s.

Tomorrow: Sunday brings a further down trend in the active weather
pattern, though with isolated showers and storms still possible.
Northwesterly flow will prevail over the area behind the
aforementioned shortwave, with modest orographic forcing persisting.
Along with that, drier air will continue to push into the area. With
the forcing still ongoing, showers and storms are still anticipated
to blossom during the afternoon, however, given the drier air, they
are expected to be more isolated in nature across the region, and
mostly restricted to the higher terrain. Otherwise, winds will
continue to remain light at 10 mph or less, with mostly clear skies
early becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. Looking at
temperatures, another near to slightly below seasonal day is
anticipated for much of south central and southeastern Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Upper ridge builds over the wrn U.S. Mon/Tue, with weak nw flow
aloft bringing drier air into much of CO. Convection looks
rather sparse and limited to mostly the mountains both days,
best chances near the NM border, where some modest low/mid level
moisture begins to sneak northward. Temps Mon/Tue will warm back
toward seasonal levels at most locations, with 80s plains,
mostly 70s valleys, and a mix of high elevation 60s/lower
elevation 70s over the mountains.

Amplified pattern still appears likely to send a cold front
south through the area Wed, while slightly better mid level
moisture works e-ne under the ridge. This should set the stage
for at least a modest increase in shower/thunderstorm chances
Wed/Thu, though latest round of models/ensembles looks drier
than 24 hrs ago. Cooler max temps likely behind the front,
coolest on Thu, though again trend in the models the past 24 hrs
has been slightly warmer, as cool air mass appears to be rather
shallow and retreats quickly eastward late Thu into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

KALS...mainly VFR conditions with mid and high clouds across the
terminal through this morning. Prob30 for tsra from mid-afternoon
into early evening with brief periods of reduced CIGS and VIS
possible, then storms ending with slow clearing trend after 02z.

KCOS...isolated showers along and north of the Palmer Divide
this morning should stay north of the terminal and won`t include
in the forecast. CIGS mainly VFR this morning, though some
patchy MVFR not too far away near KMNH as of 12z, and will
monitor for any southward spread. North winds around 10 kts will
persist into early afternoon, before turning e-se after 21z.
Prob30 for showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into
the evening with brief periods of MVFR CIGS and VIS as they
pass. Precip chances end after 02z, with clearing skies
overnight.

KPUB...VFR cigs this morning, then a prob30 for showers and
thunderstorms during from late afternoon into early evening, with
brief periods of MVFR CIGS and VIS as they pass. Precip chances
end after 02z, with clearing skies overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR/SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN