860
FXUS65 KPUB 291511
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
911 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet, active weather today through Thursday with widespread
  heavy rainfall and Flash Flood Watches in effect for much of
  the area.

- There is a fair amount of uncertainty with precipitation
  amounts...while the forecast favors higher amounts, a few
  model solutions have significantly less rainfall

- Cooler through Thursday with mainly 50s and 60s for highs.

- Drier and warmer conditions for the weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Update to current forecast for today, with scattered to numerous
showers spreading northeast across the southern tier through the
southeast plains through the morning. Moist southerly flow aloft
to help develop scattered showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms
over and near the higher terrain through the afternoon, with
widespread precipitation developing from south to north through
the evening and into early Wednesday morning, as the upper low
lifts north and east across northern New Mexico. While can rule
out locally heavy rain, through out the day, the heaviest rain
area-wide is expected later tonight and through the day Wednesday.
However, we will keep the current Flood Watch in place, hopefully
to avoid confusion in changing the timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently...satellite and radar imagery early this morning show
widespread shower activity spreading across much of southern
Colorado. These showers will continue lift northeast across the
region through sunrise. Temperatures are currently in the 50s to
60s across the Plains, and will likely hold steady through
morning.

Today and tonight...an upper level low will slowly move out of
southern California and across Arizona through tonight. Abundant
moisture will continue to stream northeastward ahead of the
upper low across Colorado leading to continued periods of
widespread moderate to at times heavy rainfall. The main focus
for today will be south along the New Mexico border, lifting
northeast along the Kansas border by this afternoon and evening.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will drop south along
the I-25 corridor turning winds northerly by mid to late
morning. This will likely limit rainfall across the Pikes Peak
Region down in the Pueblo. Low level surface flow will shift
more northeasterly late tonight into Wednesday morning. This
will help showers fill in across the Plains toward Wednesday
morning. Temperatures this afternoon will reach into the 60s
across the region, with a few low 70s near southeast Kansas
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

There is still a LOT of uncertainty among the various model
solutions through Thursday with the handling of the remnants of
Polo and the track of the upper low. The ECMWF continues to
track the upper low further west, while the GFS is further
southeast. There is better agreement beyond Thursday with high
pressure impacting the region over the weekend into early next
week.

Wednesday through Thursday...as mentioned, there remains a high
degree of uncertainty with the upper low storm track, gradient,
and QPF amounts. There are two scenarios that remain plausible
during this period...the ECMWF, some CAM guidance, and several
ensembles tracking the upper low along with the remnants of Polo
north out of New Mexico, and across southern Colorado before
shifting the system east Thursday evening. These solutions are
by far the wettest solutions, most with widespread 2 to 4 inch
amounts focused along the central/southern I-25 corridor and
Raton Mesa region. Strong upper dynamics, deep upslope flow, and
moisture wrapping around the system look to produce a period of
heavy rainfall Wednesday into Thursday morning over the areas
mentioned above. This activity looks to shift eastward Thursday
afternoon and clear into Kansas overnight Thursday. Wind in
these solutions would be possible Wednesday night Thursday
morning, but not as strong as the further east guidance.

Looking at the other scenario, the GFS, NAM 12km and other
various AI and ensemble guidance are clustered around a drier
solution. They track the upper low out of New Mexico and into
the Central Plains. A majority of the guidance in this camp have
much stronger north downslope winds Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, limiting precipitation amounts along the I-25
corridor (very similar to our winter storms). These guidance
have the highest totals out east along the Kansas border. QPF
amounts with these solutions vary from a half inch or less, to
around an inch and a half over the Raton Mesa and near the
Kansas border. In addition, a strong gradient would set up, with
very strong winds possible off the Palmer Divide and across the
Plains north of Highway 50. Wind gusts in excess of 40 to 50 mph
would be possible.

As for the the forecast...did not stray from the NBM guidance,
which is similar to the ECMWF camp, with widespread 1 to 3
inches of rainfall during this period, mainly along and south of
Highway 50, with the highest amounts along the Wet Mountains and
southern Sangre de Cristo Range. Just know that if the storm
track is further east (like the GFS), rainfall amounts could be
significantly less!

Temperatures do look to remain cool, with 50s and 60s both
Wednesday and Thursday across the region, and 40s to 50s for
overnight lows. A Flash Flood Watch remain in effect for this
period for most of the county warning area, including the Aspen
Acres burn scar.

Snow levels look to remain high; above 12 kft through this
period. Several inches of snow are possible across the higher
peaks.

Friday through Tuesday...upper level high pressure looks to
build across the Great Basin over the weekend into early next
week, with generally broad northwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures look to warm, and much drier air will work into the
region. Expect any residual showers on the Plains to have
cleared by Friday morning, with dry conditions through early
next week anticipated. Temperatures will warm back through the
70s and lower 80s. A couple of dry cold fronts Saturday and
Monday will bring minor cool downs to the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

At KCOS and KPUB, a lull in precipitation is possible this
morning, with mainly VFR cigs and some brief sprinkles at times.
Showers move back into the area this afternoon, with periods of
MVFR conditions under heavier showers possible. Rain becomes
steadier and heavier overnight into Wed morning, with MVFR
conditions prevailing.

AT KALS, occasional showers expected today, then
steadier/heavier rainfall overnight into Wed morning. Cigs/vis
will be occasionally drop to MVFR levels today under heavier
showers, then MVFR conditions prevail this evening and overnight
with heavier rainfall.

There will be a low chance (10-20 percent) for a thunderstorm
at all terminals from this afternoon into the overnight hours,
though haven`t included a mention in any taf as activity looks
isolated at best.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ067-068.
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for COZ069>071.
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for COZ072>075-077>080-
083-086>089-093>099.
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Thursday morning for
COZ076-081-082-084-085.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN