806
FXUS65 KPUB 172342
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
542 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms still expected this evening.

- Dry and sunny for Wednesday.

- Heat and wind increases again late week into next weekend with
  Heat Advisories possible for much of the lower elevations,
  and Fire Weather Highlights likely for the western mountains
  Friday and Saturday.

- Moisture increases early next week with thunderstorm chances
  returning to the eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Tonight: Active weather is expected for the evening hours across
portions of southeastern Colorado, with quiet weather returning
during the overnight hours for all of south central and southeastern
Colorado. A shortwave will be pushing over the region, and an
associated cold front will be sagged across the eastern plains.
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing around the Pikes Peak and Wet
Mountain regions by early evening given surface upsloping into
terrain features. With increased shear, moisture, and instability
behind the cold front, these storms are expected to become severe,
if they weren`t already, as the push off the terrain and to the
southeast. Given the shear in place, supercell and organized
thunderstorm clusters are likely, with the greatest hazards being
large hail up to around 3 inches and strong winds up to around 80
mph, though a tornado can not be ruled out. While the entirety of
the eastern plains will have severe weather potential today, the
area of greatest concern is likely along the I-25 corridor, where
the airmass is less likely to be influenced from outflow from
morning convection in northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas. With that
all said, storms are expected to push to southeast and out of the
area or dissipate by mid to late evening as the wave and cold front
start to exit the area and instability starts to wane. For the
overnight hours, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Beyond all of that, breezy winds
will lessen heading into the overnight hours, with partly to mostly
cloudy skies becoming clear by Wednesday morning. Looking at
temperatures, a mild, but near seasonal, night is expected, with the
plains falling into the 50s, and the valleys and mountains into the
mid 30s to 40s.

Tomorrow: For midweek, quiet weather returns for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Ridging will start to return behind the
Tuesday shortwave. Given increasing subsidence with this feature,
dry conditions are expected for the region. Otherwise, relatively
light winds around 10-12 mph are expected, with mostly clear skies
throughout the day. As for temperatures, near seasonal values are
expected for the plains thanks to the cold front passaged from late
Tuesday, with slightly above seasonal temperatures west of the I25
corridor. With that said, the plains will warm into the 80s, the
valleys into the mid 70s to 80s, and the mountains into the 60s and
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The heat turns back on for Thursday into the weekend as the upper
ridge builds then shifts eastward allowing southwest flow to
increase over the area.  Thursday will be the first day of
temperatures nearing 100 across the southeast plains, 80s to near 90
across the valleys, and 60s and 70s across the high country.
Humidity levels will drop below critical thresholds across the
mountains, valleys and adjacent plains but winds may stay just
below critical fire weather criteria.

Winds increase for Friday and Saturday as another upper trough takes
shape across the western U.S.  H7 temperatures increase to +20C and
downslope/compressional warming boosts temperatures to around
100 to 105 for the lower Arkansas River Valley, with lower to
mid 90s for the El Paso County, and 80s to around 90 for the
high valleys. These areas may need Heat Advisories for both
Friday and Saturday as overnight lows stay quite warm as well
(60s to low 70s across the plains). H7 winds increase to around
25-30 kts which combined with deep mixing should allow surface
winds to gust above 25 mph across much of the area. Fuels have
been deemed critical across our western mountains so another
round of Fire Weather highlights look likely both days.

Southwest flow begins to pick up some moisture and spread it across
the eastern half of the district by early next week.  This will
spell in increase in afternoon thunderstorms, though western areas
may miss out this chance.  Temperatures aloft begin to cool some as
the upper trough shifts eastward, though gusty afternoon winds will
continue. Temperatures drop back into the 90s for highs across the
plains which should take the edge off the need for heat highlights.
Will need to watch the low level moisture return closely as western
areas may still be close to critical fire weather thresholds even
with a bit of a cool down. Mid/high based moisture out west
could also spell lightning starts if sufficient depth exists to
generate convection. This will be monitored closely. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Main forecast challenges this period will be through early this
evening, as isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop over and near COS and PUB
through 2z this evening. Have highest confidence for this
development over COS, where latest radar imagery is showing
storms still developing just to the southwest and south. For
PUB, kept the PROB30 going given the lower confidence for
development. After this evening, the remainder of the forecast
period will then be relatively quiet. Don`t anticipate any
significant weather at ALS this period. The gusty westerly winds
at ALS at this time will see a quick wind shift to the east
this evening, but then become lighter through the evening.
Winds will continue to be variable at COS and PUB through this
evening, as several outflow boundaries are still in place. Will
see lighter winds also settle in later this evening into the
overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ