461
FXUS65 KPUB 042138
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
238 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More wind driven snow for the central mtns late Friday into
  Saturday.

- Gradual warming trend (and mainly dry except central mtns) in
  the extended

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

Temperatures have been slow to recover due to light winds over
the snow covered areas. Current temperatures are still hovering
in the mid to upper 20s along the Arkansas River through Pueblo
and in the San Luis Valley while in the 30s to low 40s
elsewhere. With clear skies over the region tonight, it will be
cold over the snow covered areas due to efficient radiational
cooling for the first half of the night, and have leaned
towards the colder side of the model blend solutions. Areas of
fog will be likely across the San Luis Valley where strong
inversions will develop. It is a little more amorphous as far as
fog formation for Pueblo and Colorado Springs as north to
northwesterly drainage winds increase (especially just off the
surface) towards morning under strengthening northwest flow
aloft ahead of the next system. Some patchy ground fog could
develop early then erode as winds aloft increase. Have kept fog
in the grids across the San Luis Valley and the lower Arkansas
River valley for now.

Otherwise, temperatures will rebound a few degrees tomorrow,
especially near the mountains were westerly winds will increase.
High clouds could wreak havoc on the warm up where winds remain
light and mixing more limited over the snow covered areas
farther from the mountains. Overall a mix of 30s and mid 40s for
the plains with 20s and 30s for the mountains and valleys. Snow
starts to spread into the central mountains during the afternoon
as the next system approaches from the northwest. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A couple of disturbances will move southeast in the northwest flow
pattern aloft, and this will bring additional snow to the central
mtns during the Friday/Saturday time frame. Best chance of wind
driven snow will be overnite Friday into Saturday. The winter
storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for the
central mountains with the Leadville area included in a Winter
Weather Advisory for this time period. Most of the heavier snow
will occur north of Cottonwood Pass though there will still be
the potential for significant impacts to travel due to blowing
snow over Monarch Pass as well.

Thereafter, northwest flow will continue aloft, but heights will
gradually rise and the gradient will slacken. This will allow for a
gradual warming trend over the entire fcst area with mainly dry
weather. The only exception will be for some passing snow showers
over the central mtns. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1040 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through the day with a good chance of
fog returning over the snowpacked San Luis Valley bringing IFR
conditions to KALS. Odds are quite a bit lower for KCOS and
KPUB as northwest winds aloft increase and drainage winds help
keep any dense fog at bay. Have maintained an MVFR vis for now
in a tempo group for both terminals, but this may be more
confined to the Arkansas River valley before winds increase from
the west Friday morning. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM Friday to 11 PM MST Saturday
for COZ058-060.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 11 PM MST
Saturday for COZ059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT