881
FXUS65 KPUB 032108
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
208 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue this evening for portions of the area,
  with the heaviest along the southern Sangre de Cristo
  Mountains and Raton Mesa area.

- Drier weather returns Thursday, though with below seasonal
  temperatures for many.

- Northwest flow to prevail through the entire fcst period with
  several weaker disturbances moving through bringing on and
  off snow to mainly the central mountains.

- Gradual warming trend next 10 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Tonight: For Wednesday night, busy weather is expected early, with
quieter conditions returning by Thursday morning. The wave bringing
a snowy Wednesday to the area will be continuing its push to the
southeast, bringing increased synoptic forcing and keeping modest
moisture in place. Given this, snow is still expected to be ongoing
during the evening hours and into the early overnight hours. The
heaviest of this additional snowfall is anticipated across the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and into the Raton Mesa, where
surface upsloping will be ongoing in conjunction with the broader
synoptic ascent. Otherwise, light snow will still be ongoing across
a large portion of the county warning area during the evening as the
wave treks over. With that all said, the wave is anticipated to
start exiting the region quickly overnight, with the trough axis
passing over during the early overnight hours. As this takes place,
forcing will start to substantially decrease, with subsidence and
drier air increasing behind the wave. Given this, dry conditions are
expected to prevail across the region by mid to late overnight,
though an isolated mountain snow shower can`t be ruled out given
some modest orographic forcing persisting. Beyond all of that,
expansive cloud cover will progressively thin out in coverage by
Thursday morning, with winds remaining fairly light at around and
less than 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, while the colder airmass
and snow will help to drop temperatures, the cloud cover is
anticipated to limit overall cooling potential. With that all said,
the plains are expected to fall into the mid 10s to mid 20s, the
valleys into the 10s, and the mountains to around zero.

Tomorrow: Heading into Thursday, a much quieter weather day is in
store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow
will be in place behind the midweek system, and given no major
forcing, dry conditions are anticipated for the region. With that
said though, an isolated snow shower will be possible along the
mountains, especially early in the day, given modest orographic
forcing persisting. Otherwise, clouds will continue to thin in
coverage, with mostly clear skies by mid afternoon, with winds
remaining relatively light around 10 mph. As for temperatures, a
cool day is expected for much of the region, with below seasonal
values. Given that, the plains will rise into the low 30s to mid
40s, the valleys into the 30s, and the mountains into the 10s to
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest flow at mid levels will dominate the pattern during the
long term fcst period. Several disturbances will move southeast in
the flow aloft, but none of these systems are expected to be as
strong as the system moving across today. Most of the precip with
these disturbances will occur over the central mountains.
Additionally. the longwave pattern will SLOWLY push eastward during
this period, and this will allow for a slow gradual warming trend
through the weekend into next week. By late next week we may see
temps in the 60s and 70s over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Snow will continue to impact all of the terminals today into
this evening, with a gradual diminishing trend later this
evening into the overnight hours. Latest radar imagery and
observations showing light to moderate snow in place with
visibility staying right around 1/2 mile at all sites. Given the
overall setup, don`t anticipate much to change with a medium to
high chance for this similar snow intensity and visibility to
continue through this afternoon. While visibility has briefly
dropped to 1/4 mile, mainly at ALS, think there is a low chance
for any persistent heavier snow with this vis to continue. If
this were to occur, think ALS will have the highest chances. IFR
ceilings have moved in place and given the snow trends, don`t
see why any improvement will occur. If anything, ceilings could
trend downward and not up.

Anticipate this snow to diminish this evening, from north to
south with improvement occurring first at COS and then PUB. Do
show this improving trend at all sites, however, it`s possible
that similar snow and intensity could last longer into the
evening at ALS and will continue to closely monitor trends into
the evening. Do have ceilings also improving but my confidence
is not overly high, as it`s possible that IFR ceilings persist
well into the overnight hours. While light snow or flurries may
continue into the overnight hours, any impactful snow should end
after the midnight time frame. Confidence on when the MVFR
ceilings scatter is low, but think a more likely trend will be
for them to remain in place through much of the period. Winds
will generally stay light, however, a period of gustier east
southeast winds is likely at ALS this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ060>062-076-077-081>086.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ065-
067>070-072>075-078>080-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ066-071-
088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ