721
FXUS65 KPUB 032346
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
446 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue this evening for portions of the area,
  with the heaviest along the southern Sangre de Cristo
  Mountains and Raton Mesa area.

- Drier weather returns Thursday, though with below seasonal
  temperatures for many.

- Northwest flow to prevail through the entire fcst period with
  several weaker disturbances moving through bringing on and
  off snow to mainly the central mountains.

- Gradual warming trend next 10 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Tonight: For Wednesday night, busy weather is expected early, with
quieter conditions returning by Thursday morning. The wave bringing
a snowy Wednesday to the area will be continuing its push to the
southeast, bringing increased synoptic forcing and keeping modest
moisture in place. Given this, snow is still expected to be ongoing
during the evening hours and into the early overnight hours. The
heaviest of this additional snowfall is anticipated across the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains and into the Raton Mesa, where
surface upsloping will be ongoing in conjunction with the broader
synoptic ascent. Otherwise, light snow will still be ongoing across
a large portion of the county warning area during the evening as the
wave treks over. With that all said, the wave is anticipated to
start exiting the region quickly overnight, with the trough axis
passing over during the early overnight hours. As this takes place,
forcing will start to substantially decrease, with subsidence and
drier air increasing behind the wave. Given this, dry conditions are
expected to prevail across the region by mid to late overnight,
though an isolated mountain snow shower can`t be ruled out given
some modest orographic forcing persisting. Beyond all of that,
expansive cloud cover will progressively thin out in coverage by
Thursday morning, with winds remaining fairly light at around and
less than 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, while the colder airmass
and snow will help to drop temperatures, the cloud cover is
anticipated to limit overall cooling potential. With that all said,
the plains are expected to fall into the mid 10s to mid 20s, the
valleys into the 10s, and the mountains to around zero.

Tomorrow: Heading into Thursday, a much quieter weather day is in
store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow
will be in place behind the midweek system, and given no major
forcing, dry conditions are anticipated for the region. With that
said though, an isolated snow shower will be possible along the
mountains, especially early in the day, given modest orographic
forcing persisting. Otherwise, clouds will continue to thin in
coverage, with mostly clear skies by mid afternoon, with winds
remaining relatively light around 10 mph. As for temperatures, a
cool day is expected for much of the region, with below seasonal
values. Given that, the plains will rise into the low 30s to mid
40s, the valleys into the 30s, and the mountains into the 10s to
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest flow at mid levels will dominate the pattern during the
long term fcst period. Several disturbances will move southeast in
the flow aloft, but none of these systems are expected to be as
strong as the system moving across today. Most of the precip with
these disturbances will occur over the central mountains.
Additionally. the longwave pattern will SLOWLY push eastward during
this period, and this will allow for a slow gradual warming trend
through the weekend into next week. By late next week we may see
temps in the 60s and 70s over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

System sweeping across the Four Corners region and CO will continue
to bring snow to area through the night, with gradual lessening
snowfall from north to south expected shortly after midnight. Even
so, ground fog will likely keep diminished conditions in place for
much of the region, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUb
and KALS, into early Thu morning. VFR conditions likely for all of
the area by 18z onward.

KCOS and KPUB: IFR to LIFR conditions in place tonight until 15-16z
Thu, then MVFR until 19z, then VFR.

KALS: IFR to LIFR conditions in place tonight until 17z Thu, then
VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ060>062-076-077-081>086.
Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ065-
067>070-072>075-078>080-087.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ066-071-
088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE