072
FXUS65 KPUB 241140
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
540 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood concerns will continue over the burn scars and higher
terrain into next week.

- Temperatures will remain hot across the region, hotter this
  weekend into early next week before cooling down slightly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Slightly less active today, but still overall wet for large portions
of our area. The upper high will settle in over the Four Corners
Region, kicking the monsoon plume slightly to the west. However,
plenty of leftover low-level moisture will remain in place. This
combined with very weak flow aloft, will allow for another round of
afternoon showers and storms. Convection will mainly stay over the
mountains today, with a more stable airmass in place over the
eastern plains and a general lack of forcing keeping things largely
dry there. For the mountains, storm motions will be slow, meaning
that pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will pose yet another day
of flash flood risk over our burn scars and other vulnerable areas.
Meanwhile, high temperatures will continue to be warm, with most of
the eastern plains approaching or slightly exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Saturday-Sunday...

Forecast remains on track for this weekend. The upper high will
persist overhead, leading to weakened flow aloft and a general lack
of any large-scale forcing. Recycled monsoon moisture beneath the
high will allow for continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
though activity will be confined to the higher terrain. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be our primary concern,
mainly over burn scar areas. Meanwhile, the eastern plains will
remain dry and hot, with high temps increasing above 100 degrees.

Next Week...

Not much change to the long-range forecast at this time. The broad
area of high pressure will remain over Colorado and the surrounding
states, allowing for more hot temperatures and daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, thanks to recycling monsoon moisture.
Flash flooding will continue to be a primary concern for the burn
scars, while the eastern plains will continue to see triple-digit
highs for a few more days. Precip coverage will be an upcoming
forecast challenge, as long-range guidance has a few weak
disturbances passing around the high throughout the week. These
could send some weak fronts down across the eastern plains,
spreading precip chances over the rest of our CWA for a few
afternoons. Will have to wait and see whether the timing of these
disturbances remains consistent in later model runs. With the
increased chance for widespread precipitation, temperatures may
actually decrease a few degrees, bringing us firmly back into the
double digits (but it`ll still be hot).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

At KALS, prob30 for -tsra this afternoon/early evening, as
storms drift off the high terrain once again. Main storm threat
will be briefly gusty/erratic winds. At KCOS, added a prob30 for
tsra from 22z-01z, as at least a few CAMs show convection over
the higher terrain west of the terminal drifting eastward by
late afternoon. Main threat will be gusty/erratic winds to 40
kts, which may occur even if storms themselves stay to the west
of the airport. At KPUB, left out any mention of tsra at this
point as storms stay west, though gusty wly outflow winds may
be possible, especially after 00z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN