688
FXUS65 KPUB 131050
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for
  Thursday and Friday.

- Snow for the Continental Divide Sunday through Monday morning,
  but looking a little warmer and drier now for the southeast
  mountains and plains as the system ejects to the north.

- Active pattern continues into next week with low confidence in
  details but broader picture pointing to a series of troughs
  and best chances for snow across the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Currently..

Satellite imagery shows middle and high clouds over the forecast
area early this morning. Temperatures are warmer than normal for
this time of year, with most of our plains sitting in the 40s and
50s. Even the San Luis Valley is still in the mid 30s as of 1 AM.
Dew points are in the teens and low 20s. Winds are light.

Today and Tonight..

Ridging continues to weaken overhead today. Models keep us in the
northern periphery of the decaying ridge, as our incoming low moves
towards the northern shore of California. This will eventually bring
southwesterly flow aloft, but for today, we remain a bit more
westerly and weak/zonal, as the system out west continues to slow
its progression. Critical fire weather is not expected today since
winds will be on the weaker side, but humidity values are likely
drop into the low and mid teens on the plains. Downsloping and
compressional warming will still be ongoing on our plains today,
leading to another day of warmer than normal temperatures. Highs
look to be around 15 to 18 degrees above normal, which will still be
at least a few degrees shy of our standing records for our three
climate sites. Colorado Springs looks to be the closest, and is
forecast to reach 71F today. Their standing record is 75F set back
in 2007 and 1999. These forecast highs are assuming continued
coverage of middle and high clouds. If skies end up being clearer
than currently expected, temperatures could end up being a few
degrees warmer, especially for Pueblo. Overnight lows will be very
similar to last night, and again, warmer than normal. Temperatures
look to fall into the teens over mountain valleys, 30s across the
Lower Arkansas River Valley, and 40s for the rest of the plains.

Records for Thu 11/13
Alamosa...........65F in 2017 Fcst...60F
Colorado Springs..75F in 2007 Fcst...71F
Pueblo............81F in 1999 Fcst...76fF

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Dry and mild conditions continue for Friday and Saturday ahead of
the next upper low approaching the southern CA coast.  Friday will
be the warmest day of the next several with lee troughing bringing
some enhanced westerly winds into the adjacent plains/I-25 corridor
on Friday.  While humidity levels will be critically low across the
lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains and adjacent I-25
corridor, winds will be the limiting factor for widespread critical
fire weather conditions as speeds stay below 25 mph and even become
south to southeasterly between narrow bands of westerly winds
spreading down the Arkansas and Huerfano counties. Localized
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Friday afternoon
but does not look sufficient in areal coverage for Fire Weather
Highlights at this time.  Highs will top out in the 70s across the
plains with 60s for the valleys and 40s and 50s for the higher
mountain communities.

Temperatures cool down around 5 degrees across the plains for
Saturday as a cold front backdoors into the southeast plains.
Mountains and valleys will see little change in temperatures
with all areas staying above normal. Winds will be lighter as
well as shortwave ridging moves overhead.

Changes occur starting Sunday as upper low moves onshore across
southern CA then lifts northeastward and fills as it tracks across
NV/UT and across CO/WY by 12z Monday.  There`s still some
differences in the track and strength in operational models though
overall trend has been towards a drier and slightly warmer solution,
especially for the southeast plains as the system passes to the
north. Consensus is leaning towards a faster moving open wave with
southern CO staying on the dry downslope side of the storm with some
brief cooling behind a cold front on Monday.  Confidence is greatest
for some moderate snow accumulations across the Eastern San Juan
mountains Sunday through early Monday as southwesterly orographics
helps enhance precipitation totals.  NBM probabilities still show
high values (up to 80%) for 6 inches or more of snow to fall across
the eastern San Juan mountains though probabilities of 12 inches or
more has dropped (up to 30% over a very small area of the higher San
Juans).  The eastern Sawatch range show some low probabilities
around 30% or less for 4 inches of snow with under 10% for the
southeast mountains. The southeast plains look warmer now with high
temperatures on Monday in the lower to mid 60s and best
precipitation chances staying north of the area.  So overall, trends
suggest maybe some advisories will be needed for the Eastern San
Juans Sunday into Sunday night at best.  Forecasts are still prone
to change, so stay tuned.

The pattern remains active into next week with a series of systems
expected to move through the western U.S.  Spread in the operational
models is significant with timing and phasing differences as systems
move into the western U.S. and dampen out into generally westerly
flow into the central part of the country.  Followed the ensemble
means for now given the low confidence forecast on if/where any cut
off lows may form and track.  Overall pattern would suggest
continued dampening waves to eject across the Rockies bringing some
episodic snows to the mountains, and generally near normal
temperatures to the southeast CO plains with some isolated showers
possible at times.  No changes made from the National Blend of Model
solutions. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven. Scattered to occasionally broken middle and upper-level
cloud decks are expected through much of the forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT