841
FXUS65 KPUB 182102
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
202 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light snow for the southwest mountains through the
  short term, while the eastern mountains and plains remain dry
  and warmer than normal.

- Increasing chances for higher impact winter system possible
  for the Thursday into Friday timeframe, with snow for the high
  country and mainly rain forecast for the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Currently...Upper low pressure system centered over the southern CA
coastline was producing deep south to southwest flow aloft across
the Four Corners region. Abundant mid and high level cloud cover has
streamed across CO, somewhat slowing the heating for the forecast
area as temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the 40s for the high
valleys, and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Tonight and Wednesday...The Pacific low system is forecast to drop
across the CA Baja this evening, then finally move onshore across
southern CA and western AZ tomorrow. This path will keep persistent
southwesterly flow in place and a continuous moisture feed into
western CO. However, models are holding onto very light and
intermittent snow amounts for the southwest mts tonight into Wed,
with totals less than an inch, while the remainder of the area will
remain dry. Cold air aloft is starting to advect into western CO
with the approaching system though, so the western portions of the
CWA will see cooling temps over the next 24 hrs.

Plan on overnight low temps tonight in the teens to mid 20s for the
high valleys, and upper 20s to upper 30s for the plains. High temps
tomorrow will be in the 30s to around 40F for the Continental
Divide, upper 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys and eastern mts,
and 60s to around 70F for the I-25 Corridor and eastern plains.
Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Wednesday Night Through Friday..

Models are still in agreement that chances for a significant precip
event and cooler temperatures are increasing for the Thursday and
Friday timeframe for southeast Colorado. That being said, we are
still seeing run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistencies that will
have impacts on the intricacies of the upcoming forecast. Both the
Canadian and GFS ensemble members are back to showing a mostly open
wave and negatively tilted trough axis inbound throughout Thursday.
Both models close the low back off over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle
region by early Friday morning. EC ensemble members show a similar
solution, but do not close the low back off until later Friday
morning over Kansas, and keep it weaker as well. The GFS is
currently showing the deepest system, with best chances for rain and
highest moisture content over the plains. Chances for moisture are
still increasing with this system as it draws nearer and remains on
track, with highest amount over our San Juans, and the Sangres. QPF
amounts of 0.3 to 0.8 inches are forecast for the Wednesday night
through Friday timeframe, with highest chances for rain and snow
coming in Thursday evening through Friday morning. Snow will be
heavy at times over the high country and over mountain passes,
especially for Wolf Creek and La Veta Pass. Highlights may be needed
during this timeframe, especially for the Sangres and the San Juans,
but due to model uncertainties, have decided to hold off for now.
Precipitation looks to fall mostly as rain on the plains with
current model solutions, though slight changes in timing, track, or
amplitude, may change this forecast quickly. At this time, a
changeover to snow is only expected over the Palmer Divide and the
Raton Mesa, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from late Thursday
night into Friday morning. There some outliers showing chances for
snow on the plains.. though again these solutions look to be
outliers for now. Daytime highs still look to warm into the 40s and
50s for Thursday and Friday.

Saturday Onwards..

Models hint at another low approaching through the beginning of next
week, though not much agreement is shown in its track. The GFS is
the only model that keeps it in play for precip chances for
southeast Colorado, and the EC keeps it all the way south of the New
Mexico border through Monday night. For now, our weekend looks to be
a bit of a lull between these two systems. Of course, if either
system speeds up or slows down, that could change, but for now, our
weekend looks to bring near to slightly warmer than normal
temperatures, and mainly dry, quiet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Plan on BKN mid and high level cloudiness with increasing S-SW flow
aloft, while surface winds will be diurnal in direction and
generally 12 kts or less.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOORE