352
FXUS65 KPUB 281818
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1218 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
  tomorrow, mostly across the eastern plains.

- Thunderstorm chances gradually decrease through from Sunday
  into early next week, with a slow return of warmer and drier
  weather developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Today and Tonight: Thursday brings another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms to south central and southeastern
Colorado. Flow will become more westerly as a high pressure sits
south of the area. Despite this though, abundant moisture will still
be in place over the area, especially the eastern plains where
easterly surface winds will help to keep moisture into the region.
With orographic forcing, and the moisture in place, afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly along
and east of the eastern mountains. Showers and storms are
anticipated to first develop along the higher terrain by early
afternoon, and then push eastward across the valleys and plains by
late afternoon. In addition, a couple of strong to low end severe
storms will be possible along and east of the eastern mountains,
where shear and greater instability will overlap. The most likely
hazards with any stronger storms is expected to be hail up to 1 inch
in diameter and strong outflow winds up to around 60 mph. Heading
into the overnight hours, most showers and thunderstorms are
expected to dissipate as diurnal instability wanes, with isolated
showers remaining possible, especially along the higher terrain.
Beyond all of that, mostly sunny skies early will give way to partly
to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon and evening hours, with
winds remaining relatively light around and less than 10 mph. High
temperatures during the day Thursday will remain below seasonal
values, with the upper 70s to mid 80s, the valleys in the 70s, and
the mountains in the 50s and 60s.

Tomorrow: Heading into Friday, another day of afternoon showers and
storms is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Flow will remain westerly over the area, with rich moisture still in
place across the area, especially the eastern plains. With terrain
forcing, and the moisture in place, another round of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated. Showers and storms are
expected to first initially blossom along the mountains, and then
push across the valleys and plains by late afternoon. Like Thursday,
strong to severe storms will also be possible this day, and still
mostly along and east of the eastern mountains, where the greatest
overlap of shear and instability is anticipated. Strong outflow
winds and large hail would be the expected hazards with any stronger
storms. Outside of all of that, partly skies are expected throughout
the day, with winds continuing to remain relatively light around 10
mph. LOoking at temperatures, another below seasonal day is
anticipated, with the plains in the upper 70s to mid 80s, the
valleys in the 70s, and the mountains in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Friday night and Saturday...

Many model solutions suggests showers/isolated thunderstorms
linger for much of Friday night, especially on the plains, and
will keep at least low pops going into Saturday morning along
and east of the mountains. On Saturday, could be some patchy low
clouds and fog early, though many forecasts show a weak north
wind around 12z, which should limit areal extent of any
cloudy/foggy conditions. Slightly drier air begins to work into
the area from the west Saturday afternoon, and we will likely
see a decrease in convective coverage over the mountains along
the Continental Divide, though still some isolated activity
possible. Eastern mountains and plains retain plentiful moisture
Saturday afternoon and evening, and expect the usual round of
convection firing over the higher terrain early/mid afternoon,
then moving e-se though the plains by evening. Should be enough
instability (CAPE 1000-1500 j/kg) and shear (0-6km bulk shear 40
kts) for strong storms from I-25 eastward once again, though if
cool air from Friday night convection lingers on the plains
longer than currently forecast, storms could struggle to
maintain strength as they move away from the higher terrain.

Sunday Onwards..

Moisture continues to decrease over the region Sun-Tue, which
should reduce storm coverage and intensity all areas through the
period, though we`ll likely recycle enough moisture for
scattered afternoon convection each day, especially over the
mountains. Could see a uptick in storms along the NM by late Mon
into Tue as moisture spreads back north, though with deepest
moisture staying south of the area, threat of heavy rain and
stronger storms appears limited. High temps will slowly climb
back toward seasonal levels early next week, though no extreme
heat is expected. Upper ridge builds over the wrn U.S.
middle/end of next week, while deep trough builds over the
eastern half of the country. Pattern should lead to another cold
frontal passage through CO mid-week (Wed-ish), bringing cooler
air back to at least the plains and ern mountains. Enough
moisture will remain in place for daily thunderstorm chances
over the mountains through the week, with a few storms slipping
eastward onto the plains late Wed onto Thu, helped along by
post-frontal easterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Thunderstorms could impact the KCOS area with a couple rounds, one this
afternoon and another this evening into the overnight hours.  Chance is
lower at KPUB so will carry VCSH for now, but greatest confidence will be
during the late evening into the overnight hours.  Brief MVFR cigs/vis with
TSRA will be the main impacts with a smaller potential for hail should
a stronger storm impact the terminal.  Winds will be dominated by east to
southeasterlies today, but become erratic and convectively driven late
this afternoon and evening, before settling back from the east to northeast
this evening and and overnight.  MVFR Stratus will be possible at KCOS and
KPUB during the overnight into the early morning hours but high cloudiness
may prevent its formation so have kept this a scattered layer for now.

KALS will see VFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms expected to bypass
the terminal for now.  Southwest winds up to 15 kts this afternoon will
decrease into the evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...WFO PUB