064
FXUS65 KPUB 310308
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
908 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible into this evening across the southeast plains.

- Thunderstorm chances decrease for Sunday through Tuesday with
  mainly isolated thunderstorms possible over the mountain
  areas.

- Slight uptick in precip chances Wed/Thu with cold front moving
  through the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Updated to adjust pop grids based on the latest radar trends. An
area of thunderstorms is currently dropping south across Kiowa,
Bent and Prowers Counties as of 9 PM. This area will continue to
track south to southeast. The main concerns will be gusty
outflow winds to 40 mph, pea size hail and brief heavy rainfall.
This area of thunderstorms should weaken and dissipate through
midnight as it tracks southward.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

High res models keep best chances across the southeast plains
through this evening as shortwave trough pushes eastwards into the
central plains.  A few strong storms will be possible, especially
across the far eastern plains where dew points will be a little
higher and CAPE values may approach 1000 J/kg.  Main risks look like
heavy rainfall, localized wind gusts up to 40 mph and lightning,
though some gusts up to 50 mph, and hail up to near 1 inch in
diameter will be possible with the isolated stronger cells near the
KS border.  A few showers main linger near the southern CO border
overnight but overall, decreasing clouds and drying surface dew
points behind the upper wave will allow for a cooler night for most
areas.  High valleys will drop into the 30s for overnight lows
making for a crisp cool night for late summer.

Drier air continues to work in for Sunday with most of the lower
elevations and southeast plains likely to remain dry.  With the
upper ridge transitioning eastward, and some residual moisture
caught in the flow aloft, especially southern areas, there will be
another round of mainly isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
These should stay confined to the mountain areas with weaker storm
strengths given significantly less CAPE and shear. High
temperatures warm a few degrees though remain below
climatological normals. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Upper ridge builds over the wrn U.S. Mon/Tue, with weak nw flow
aloft bringing drier air into much of CO. Convection looks
rather sparse and limited to mostly the mountains both days,
best chances near the NM border, where some modest low/mid level
moisture begins to sneak northward. Temps Mon/Tue will warm back
toward seasonal levels at most locations, with 80s plains,
mostly 70s valleys, and a mix of high elevation 60s/lower
elevation 70s over the mountains.

Amplified pattern still appears likely to send a cold front
south through the area Wed, while slightly better mid level
moisture works e-ne under the ridge. This should set the stage
for at least a modest increase in shower/thunderstorm chances
Wed/Thu, though latest round of models/ensembles looks drier
than 24 hrs ago. Cooler max temps likely behind the front,
coolest on Thu, though again trend in the models the past 24 hrs
has been slightly warmer, as cool air mass appears to be rather
shallow and retreats quickly eastward late Thu into Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

KALS...a few showers will be possible early this evening near
the terminal that could briefly reduce CIGS and VIS as they
pass. Overnight and Sunday look to clear out, with VFR
conditions expected to prevail.

KCOS...rain showers/embedded thunderstorms are currently
dropping southeast away from the terminal. Overall, VFR
conditions expected from late evening through Sunday afternoon.

KPUB...a line of showers is currently moving southeast towards
the terminal and will pass this evening, with briefly reduced
CIGS and VIS as they pass. After, VFR conditions are forecast to
prevail through Sunday afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY