787
FXUS65 KPUB 022321
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
521 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier through the weekend.

- Staying warm through next week, with occasional passing waves
  bringing a few chances of showers to areas over and near the
  higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest north
to northwest flow aloft across the region, with the center of an upper
high across southwestern Utah at this time. Water vapor imagery also
has short wave energy translating through the stronger westerly flow
aloft across the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Tier. Regional
satellite data has clear skies across south central and southeast
Colorado at this time, with some noticeable snow cover across the higher
peaks, from both on satellite and just looking out the window!

No big changes for the forecast through Saturday night, with upper level
ridging continuing to build into the Rockies, keeping modest west to
northwest flow aloft in place across the region.  With clear skies, light
winds and moisture in place from recent rains, we could see more patchy
fog developing once again across the plains overnight. Any fog which
develops mixes out as the aforementioned embedded passing wave across
the Northern Tier, sends a weak front across Eastern Colorado through
the day. Overnight lows look to be around or slightly warmer than last
nights readings, mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain,
and in the 40s to near 50 across the plains. While we can`t rule out
some patchy frost in the center of the San Luis Valley, there does
not seem to be enough coverage to issue an advisory at this time.
With warming aloft and mixing associated with the weak front, highs
look to warm back to slightly above seasonal levels in mid 70s to
lower 80s across the plains, and  mainly in the 60s and 70s across
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For Sunday through Wednesday, modest westerly flow persists aloft,
as a few more disturbances translate across the Northern Tier.
Model data does indicate enough residual moisture to support chances
of showers over and near the higher terrain, with the best coverage
along and west of the ContDvd. Otherwise, after a slight cool down
on Sunday, especially across the plains with low level upslope in
place, temperatures to remain at and above seasonal levels through
the middle of the week.

By the end of the week and into next weekend, longer range model
data supports increasing southwest flow across the Rockies, as an
Eastern Pacific system moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest
Coast, digs into the Great Basin. Where is goes from there remains
uncertain, however, the increasing southwest flow will help keep
temperatures at and above seasonal levels, with increasing chances
of precipitation along and west of the ContDvd likely. Time will
tell.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected for this TAF
period. With that said, pockets of very low level clouds to fog may
develop across the TAF sites tonight, lowering conditions into IFR
to LIFR as ceilings and visibilities drop. Otherwise, mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are anticipated for this TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE