074
FXUS65 KPUB 140515
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot with well above seasonal temperatures tomorrow.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible tomorrow
  afternoon, though mostly along the higher terrain.

- Above normal temperatures persist through early next week,
  with a pattern change arriving around the Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Updated to push the thunderstorm threat east across the Plains,
mainly north of Highway 50. Cells have been pulsing, but overall
trends have been coming down. Hail to near a quarter may still
be possible and wind gusts near 50 mph. These storms should
continue to push east and dissipate through the next couple of
hours.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Tonight: Relatively quiet weather is expected heading into the
weekend. Synoptically, a ridge of high pressure will start expanding
across the area. Given increasing descent with this feature, dry
conditions are anticipated this evening and overnight. The exception
to this will be across the eastern plains, where a weak disturbance
in the flow may help to spark isolated thunderstorms along the
eastern mountains and push them across the plains during the evening
hours. Along with that, thunderstorm development may be possible
along an outflow boundary this evening from a thunderstorm cluster
in northeast Colorado. Any storm development from this outflow would
be expected to remain north of Highway 50 and primarily in Kiowa and
Prowers Counties. While no widespread severe storms are anticipated,
one or two can not be ruled out across the far eastern plains given
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg during the evening hours. With weak shear,
high cloud bases, and large DCAPE values around 1300 J/kg, strong
outflow winds to around 60 mph would be the most likely hazard from
any organized storm that can develop. Outside of that, partly cloud
skies early will become clear by Saturday morning, with light winds
less than 10 mph expected. As for temperatures, a mild night is
expected, with much of the area cooling to around and slightly above
seasonal lows, with the plains falling into the mid 50s to low 60s,
valleys into the 40s to low 50s, and mountains into the mid 30s to
40s.

Tomorrow: For the start of the weekend, relatively quiet weather
continues. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will continue
to expand over the region. Given the subsidence with this feature,
dry conditions are anticipated for south central and southeastern
Colorado. The exception to this may be along the higher terrain,
where a highly isolated shower or thunderstorm may blossom during
the afternoon hours. Otherwise, clear skies early will give way to
partly cloudy skies during the afternoon, with relatively light
winds around 10 mph continuing. Looking at temperatures, we`ll start
pushing into the hot range, with mid to upper 90s for the plains,
upper 70s to low 90s for the valleys, and 50s to 60s for the
mountains.

Tomorrow Night: To end off the first day of the weekend, quiet
weather persist for south central and southeastern Colorado. The
ridge of high pressure that has been in place will continue to sit
over the area. Just like Saturday day, given increased subsidence
with this feature, dry conditions are expected Saturday evening and
overnight. Beyond all of that, partly cloudy skies will again return
to clear conditions overnight, with light winds less than 10 mph
continuing. Temperatures will again remain mild overnight, with many
places falling to near to slightly above seasonal lows, with the
plains dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the
40s to low 50s, and the mountains into the mid 30s to 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday and Monday...Modest west to southwest flow aloft with
upper level ridging in place through the through the weekend,
becomes increasing westerly through the day Monday, as the ridge
flattens ahead of short wave energy translating across the West
Coast and into the Intermountain West. Latest model data
continues to support much drier air moving into the Rockies
within the modest flow aloft. This, along with subsidence
associated with the building ridge, will lead to less coverage
of diurnal showers and storms through this period, with any
storms that can develop over and near the higher terrain being
high based. Further east across the southeast plains, low level
moisture will ebb and flow with expected weak lee/thermal
troughing in place. This will lead to the potential for a few
strong to severe storms, if mid level capping weakens enough for
the instability to be tapped. With that said, the latest SPC
Day 2 and 3 Outlooks continue indicate marginal risks across the
far southeast plains to account for this conditional
instability. With less convection and warming temperatures under
the building ridge (H7 temps +16C to +20C), will see above mid
June norms and nearing record levels (see climate section) in
the 90s to around the century mark across the plains, and in the
70s to low 80s across the higher terrain, save for 50s and 60s
at the peaks. Lows continue to be at to slightly above seasonal
levels in the 50s and 60s across the plains and mainly in the
40s across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Wednesday...While models do indicate short wave energy
translating through the region through the mid week timeframe, they
continue to differ on the amplitude of said wave breaking down the
ridge. This, in turn, leads to differences in the amount of
available moisture and chances of precipitation across the area, as
well as how much cooling will there be across the region. NBM data
does bring temperatures back down to around seasonal levels for this
period, with chances for showers and storms, mainly across the
eastern mountains and plains.

Thursday-Friday...Warmer and drier conditions return for the end of
the next work week, as operational and ensemble model data supports
upper ridging building back across the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There is a very
low probability of showers and thunderstorms across the San Luis
Valley Saturday afternoon, which could impact the terminal. A
few wind gusts near 20 kts out of the west are possible Saturday
afternoon.

KCOS...VFR conditions through much of the period. A few showers
and thunderstorms may be possible across the Palmer Divide
region Saturday afternoon, and could impact the terminal.
Briefly reduced CIGS and VIS would be possible with any storms.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There is a low
probability of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, but
confidence in one impacting the terminal is low.  Mozley

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Meteorological critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Monday and Tuesday across the San Luis Valley and surrounding
higher terrain, with increasing westerly flow and dry
conditions across the region. However, fuels have been deemed
non-critical, with no expected fire weather highlights through
early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Records   June 14.....June 15.....June 16

ALS       91F 2021....90F 2021....94F 2021

COS       94F 2018....94F 1978...100F 2021

PUB      103F 2018...102F 2000...101F 1985

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MOORE/MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE/MW
CLIMATE...MW