Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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804
FXUS65 KPUB 131058
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019

...A dry cold front moving across the plains Today...

Current GOES satellite imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
wave clouds across the Northern Front Range into the Pikes Peak
region with moderate to strong west to northwest flow aloft across
the region, as an embedded short wave translates across the Northern
Rockies at this time. Lee troughing across the I-25 Corridor is
keeping breezy westerly winds and temperatures up cross the higher
terrain along and west of the I-25 Corridor, with 3 am readings in
the 40s to lower 50s across the lower eastern slopes. Temperatures
across the rest of the region were in 20s and 30s, save for single
digits and teens in the San Luis Valley.

Today and Tonight...Latest models remain consistent with flow aloft
becoming more northwest and moderating through the afternoon and
evening, as the Northern Rockies short wave continues to translate
out across the High Plains. The passing wave sends a dry, backdoor
cold front across the eastern plains late this morning and early
afternoon, with breezy northerly winds 20-30 mph developing across
the plains behind the front, strongest across the far southeast
plains. With the warm start to the day and mixing associated with
the passing front, should see temperatures quickly warming into the
mid 50s to lower 60s across the plains through the late morning and
early afternoon, with steady to slowly falling temperatures then
expected through the rest of the afternoon, as low level winds
weaken and become more upslope. This front will have little effect
across the rest of the area, with dry conditions and temperatures
expected to be in the 40s and 50s across the high valleys and
mountains, save for mainly 30s at the peaks. There is some concern
for near critical fire weather conditions initially behind the front
across the far southeast plains. However, with low level moisture
slowly increasing and temperatures slowly decreasing through the
afternoon, do not think there will be widespread enough conditions
to issue any fire weather highlights.  Moist low level upslope flow
continues into tonight, with some stratus development possible,
mainly across the far southeast plains, with overnight lows in the
teens and 20s areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019

Thursday and Friday...Models continue to show some lingering
shortwave energy over the Rockies early Thu, then a temporary ridge
of high pressure sliding across the Four Corners Thu aftn through
Fri. Expect dry conditions with generally light winds both days.
Temps are expected to remain in the 50s for most areas on Thu, then
climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and 60s to
near 70F for the plains on Fri.

Saturday and Sunday...An upper level trough of low pressure begins
to gather strength over the Pacific NW late Fri night, then quickly
pushes across the Rockies and Northern Plains through Sat before
exiting the region Sun morning. This trough looks like it will be a
stronger system, with the GFS indicating a potential for closing off
over the Four Corners while the EC shows intensification over the Ok
and TX Panhandles. Regardless, this trough still looks like it will
be a fast-moving system, with the potential for bringing some snow
showers to the higher terrain by midday Sat, then precip to the
plains Sat night through early Sun morn. As for winds, expect brisk
westerly winds Sat morning along the I25 corridor, then surface
winds will swing around to the north by midday with frontal passage.
Sat max temps will still be somewhat warm prior to cold front
passage in the aftn, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Readings
then cool for Sun, with highs in the 50s for all areas.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure builds back in, providing for a
dry and warmer start to the next work week. Plan on highs in the 50s
for the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 358 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2019

VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours.
A dry cold front will move southward over the eastern plains through
the morning, with fropa around 17Z at COS and 18Z at PUB, with gusty
north to northeast winds of 15-30kts in its wake. Winds become more
east to southeast through the late afternoon and evening with some
patchy stratus possible late in the taf period, however, with a low
probability of occurrence, will not include in taf at this time. This
front will have little effect west of the Front Range.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW



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