Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 102101
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Some isolated thunderstorms have formed over the I-25 corridor this
afternoon, which is consistent with what HREF has been resolving
throughout the day. While limited CAPE is over the I-25 corridor,
DCAPE values are around 1500-2000 J/kg. The primary risk for storms
throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the evening will be
gusty winds of around 50 mph with small or no hail expected over the
I-25 corridor. The better environment is out east, but there is a
are high amounts of CIN overhead, which should dampen the storms
from initiating. If a storm does form over the far eastern plains,
around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is located near the Colorado and Kansas
border. So overall, a wind risk is expected over the plains, mainly
over the I-25, and a very low end severe risk is possible near the
Colorado and Kansas border. Thunderstorm chances end at around
sunset for all of the region. Overnight will be precipitation free
and low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s over the plains,
the 30s over the shear mountain valleys and Lake County, the 40s
over the San Luis Valley, and the low to mid 50s over the San Luis
Valley.

A better set up for severe weather is expected over the far eastern
plains tomorrow afternoon, near the end of the short term forecast
period. A sharp moisture gradient is expected to form over Baca,
Bent, Prowers, and Kiowa County as lee troughing pushes dry air into
more moist air. A short wave embedded in the upper level flow will
help spark thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. CAPE
values are expected to be around 1500 J/kg and 6km bulk shear values
are around 35-40 kts, therefore if storms fire as anticipated, they
have the capability of becoming severe. Main risks will be golf ball
sized hail and 70 mph winds.

High temperatures will be similar to what they were today across the
entire region. Mid 90s over the plains, the mid to upper 80s over
the mountain valleys and Teller County, and the 70s over Lake
County.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Main forecast concern/challenge at the start of the period will be
with a continued risk of strong to severe storms across the far
eastern plains early Tuesday evening. Whatever storms that develop
late in the afternoon should continue into the evening, as well as
newer development persisting into mid evening. Surface dryline looks
to continue to be the focus for development, where at least moderate
instability and stronger flow is expected. At this time, highest
chances for this stronger development should still be closer to the
CO and KS border. Thunderstorm chances should quickly diminish by
mid evening, or soon there after.

By Wednesday, precip chances lower across much of southern CO but
some slight increases in available moisture are expected Thursday
with isolated thunderstorm development returning to the higher
terrain. Similar setup and thunderstorm chances expected on Friday,
with once again, development staying confined to the higher terrain.
Pattern supportive of afternoon and evening precip development at
the start of the weekend may begin to spread more east with
thunderstorm chances returning to parts of the I-25 corridor on
Saturday. By late weekend into early next week, thunderstorm chances
spread eastward over more of the plains. Above normal temps look to
continue during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020

VFR conditons are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the
forecast period. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will continue
through the early evening for KCOS and KPUB. Shortly after sunset
storm chances diminish over KCOS and KPUB. No thunderstorms are
expected over any terminal tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...SKELLY



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