039
FXUS65 KPUB 301743
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The start of the work week will bring slightly cooler
  temperatures and daily storms over the higher terrain. The
  plains will remain slightly drier Monday-Tuesday.

- Not much change in day-to-day weather during the long term
  forecast period.

- Generally seasonable temps with mainly dry plains and scattered
  storms mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures across the region will be a bit cooler today, with 70s-
80s over most of our forecast area. Looking aloft, high pressure
continues to build in from the southwest as yesterday`s system moves
off to the east. Breezy and consistent easterly flow will be present
across the eastern plains throughout most of the day, allowing for
moist air to move back to the mountains/plains interface. Showers
and thunderstorms will form shortly after midday, largely over the
mountains. Though models show 800-1000 J/kg along and just west of
the I-25 corridor, currently outlooks only show general
thunderstorms. Flow aloft will be weak beneath the building high,
and wind shear will be minimal, leading to weaker, slow-moving
storms. As such, our main concern for today will be flash flooding
over burn scars and other high-risk areas from repeated rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Currently, portions of south-central
Colorado are under a marginal outlook for excessive rainfall today.
A few scattered showers and storms may also move onto the plains
later on in the evening, but should generally stay on the weaker
side and dissipate before moving too far east.

Tuesday...

Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, with slightly drier
conditions over the plains as high pressure continues to build in
overhead. Highs will reach the mid-high 80s over most of the plains,
while winds at the surface turn a bit more southerly. Monsoon
moisture will keep moving into the mountains, allowing for scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Given
the weak flow aloft, another day of slow-moving storms with the
potential for heavy rain. The plains should remain a bit drier,
though southerly flow may bring in enough moisture for some isolated
afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Not all that much change is anticipated in the overall weather
pattern during the long term period. General midlevel troughieness
over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a
generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the
plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday
weekend and beyond. Expect max temps in the U80s to M90 plains, with
temps in the 70s mtns. Valleys should see temps in the L/M80s. At
this time, it appears the wettest day will be this upcoming Thursday
over the higher terrain. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR to intermittent MVFR conditions across much of the forecast area
today into this evening due to greater chance for showers and
thunderstorm activity over the higher terrain and adjacent plains,
affecting the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. VFR
conditions forecast for all areas starting by 05z tonight and
lasting through the end of the forecast period.

KCOS: VCSH starting at 19z with PROB30 from 20z-01z for -TSRA, VRB
gusts to 28 kts and MVFR cigs.

KPUB: PROB30 from 20z-01z for-TSRA, VRB gusts to 28 kts and lowering
cigs.

KALS: TEMPO from 20z-24z for -TSRA and VRB gusts to 35 kts, then
PROB30 from 00z-04z for -TSRA and lowering cigs/vsby. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE