Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Currently...satellite imagery shows high pressure sitting over the
Four Corners region with weak northwesterly flow across Colorado.
Satellite imagery also shows cumulus and a few towering cumulus
bubbling over the Mountains, stretching east into El Paso County.
Temperatures are once again hot, with upper 90s to lower 100s across
the Plains.  Winds are generally light and southerly across the

Rest of today...very similar conditions to yesterday, with a dry
lower level, and weak instability aloft.  Expect continue shower and
thunderstorm development over the Mountains, east into the northern
I-25 corridor from Pueblo through Monument Hill.  LCL heights
continue to be high, DCAPE values around 2000 j/kg and very dry low
levels (dewpoints currently in the mid 30s to lower 40s) all point
to a thunderstorm wind threat as storms move off the higher terrain.
The main difference is enhanced low level convergence from near
Canon City, northeast across El Paso County, with a northerly shift
in where storms are expected.  A few outflow wind gust in excess of
50 mph are expected, with a couple coming close to severe potential.
The setup also suggests microbursts may be possible as well. Given
the dry low levels, not much precipitation is expected, and isolated
to scattered dry thunderstorms are possible over the Mountains.
Expect thunderstorms to shift northeast off the Mountains, and into
the northern I-25 corridor through the late afternoon hours.
Locations from eastern Fremont, Pueblo, Teller and El Paso Counties
will see the highest risk of strong to near severe winds.

Tonight...not much change to the upper pattern with high pressure
remaining in place over the Four Corners.  Expect thunderstorm
activity to shift north and east this evening, dissipating with loss
of daytime heating.  Dry and mild conditions are expected to prevail
overnight into Friday morning.

Friday...the upper level high is forecast to shift southwest into
Arizona by midday with slightly increased northwesterly flow across
Colorado.  At the surface, a cold front is forecast to drop south
across the Plains by late morning, with low level flow turning
easterly upslope.  This will also bring slightly better low level
moisture to the region, with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid
40s by afternoon.  Better moisture will lead to MLCAPE values around
500 to 700 j/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear will increase to near 30 kts
by afternoon.  Temperatures will also be slightly cooler, with lower
to mid 90s across the region.  Given these parameters, a few strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible by mid afternoon.  Expect
initial development over the Mountains, with activity spreading east
into the Plains.  Across the Plains, hail to near one inch in
diameter and wind gusts to near 60 mph will be possible.  Over the
Mountains, less moisture will be available, and dry thunderstorms
will once again be possible. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Friday night:

Ongoing thunderstorms are expected over the mountains, mountain
valleys, and plains at the beginning of the long term forecast
period (Friday at 6PM) due to a cold front passage. The
thunderstorms are expected to propagate easterly throughout the
evening. CAPE values pre-convective initiation are less than 1000
J/kg over the region, with the exception of Kiowa County where value
are slightly greater than 1000 J/kg. LCLs are around 550hPa (11kft
AGL) with a distinct inverted-V signature in the SkewTs. Overall the
main thunderstorm risks will be strong thunderstorm outflow winds.
Another concern is flash flooding over the Spring, Decker, Junkins,
and Hayden Pass burn scars. Thunderstorms are expected to be fairly
numerous over the mountains, so there is a possibility of flash

Low temperatures will be the low to mid 60s over the plains and the
40s to low 50s over the mountain valleys and Teller County.


The upper level high pressure center is expected to propagate to the
southwest, centering over Arizona. The retreat of the high pressure
center will allow for shortwaves to initiate thunderstorms over the
mountains and propagate over the mountain valley and the plains.
CAPE values will exceed 1000 J/kg over parts of the mountains and
over the far eastern plains during the afternoon, so there is once
again a flash flood risk over the burn scars and a severe
thunderstorm risk over the plains. LCLs are still around 10kft but
there is weak speed shear and directional shear being observed in
the hodographs over the plains. Thunderstorms that develop over the
plains will be entering a better environment for intensifying,
especially as it reach the further east counties. Main thunderstorm
risks will be 1 to 1.5" hail, 60-70 mph, and a low end chance for a
brief isolated weak tornado. Dry lightning is possible over the
mountains during the afternoon. Fuels are not considered critical
over much of the region, but the Sangres have been updated to
critical as of June 11th. For now, no fire weather highlights will
be added.


A shortwave is expected to propagate over the northern high plains
on Sunday morning which will create a cold front that will reach
southern Colorado by Sunday afternoon. The timing is a bit
uncertain, but will have wildly different outcomes to how the day`s
weather would play out. For example, if the the front arrived early,
maximum temperatures would be cooler than if the front arrived
later. The thunderstorm initiation would be earlier and the
thunderstorm potency would be higher with the earlier frontal
passage as well. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the cold
front. At this point in time, there are no indications that wind
gusts would exceed 30-35 mph.

Maximum temperatures will be dependent on the frontal passage
timing, but our current forecast is for the highs over the plains to
reach the mid 90s, with the potential to reach a few degrees higher
or lower. The rest of the region will be around the same as before,
with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s over the mountain valleys,
and the 70s to low 80s over Teller and Lake County.

Monday through Thursday:

Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday! Some relief from the
early onset of hot temperatures will be dependent on the strength of
the cold front reaching the region on Sunday. Currently the forecast
is for high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s over the plains. Only
slight relief is expected over the mountain valleys, though, as the
cold front will primarily affect the plains.

A bit of a drier period will return from Tuesday through Thursday as
a ridge aloft will slowly make its way over the state. Temperatures
will return to the mid to upper 90s throughout the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Jun 17 2021

A cool front will move across the region tomorrow bringing
slightly cooler temps to the region. Winds will become breezy late
tomorrow morning at KCOS and KPUB. There will be a slight chance
of showers and TSRA at the KCOS and KPUB by late afternoon,
especially at KCOS.

The same front that will affect KCOS and KPUB will push over the
Sangre De Cristos and affect KALS around 00 UTC tomorrow. It will
get breezy from the east after fropa. Isold thunder will be
possible by late tomorrow afternoon and early evening at KALS.




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