393
FXUS65 KPUB 242029
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
229 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm day on tap for the area Tuesday, with an
  afternoon storm or two over the higher terrain possible.

- Record warmth Wed-Fri across the Plains.

- Elevated fire weather concerns by Friday and Saturday, along
  with mountain precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Currently...Upper level ridge axis was located over southern CA and
Nevada today, with northwest flow aloft and high level cloudiness
streaming across Colorado. Brisk west to northwest winds were being
reported at the normal wind-prone spots, with gusts of 25-30 mph. As
of 1 PM, temps had warmed into the 50s and 60s for the high valleys,
60s and 70s for the plains.

Tonight and Tomorrow...The upper ridge is expected to remain over
the western US through the short term, though the ridge axis ever so
slightly edges eastward. A weak wave passing through the ridge will
kick off some isolated showers over the central mts this evening,
then push a weak cold front south across the Palmer Divide tonight.
Brisk west-northwest surface winds late this afternoon are expected
to transition to a more northerly direction tonight. Slightly
enhanced nighttime winds are forecast to keep the overnight minimum
temps somewhat mild, with readings in the 20s and 30s for the high
valleys, and 30s to around 40F for the plains.

Tomorrow morning surface winds are forecast to be light and easterly
behind the passing cold front, and slightly cooler temps are in the
forecast though they will still be around 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normals. Increasing lapse rates and the llvl easterly push
increases model CAPE over the higher terrain to around 300 j/kg, so
maintained the mention of isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over the mts, with the main threat being cloud to
ground lightning and gusty winds. High temps tomorrow are forecast
to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s for most locations. Moore&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Models continue to be in good agreement through much of the
extended period, with high pressure through mid week, and a
return to unsettled weather by late week into the weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday...upper level high pressure will
dominate across the region with warm temperatures across the
region. Afternoon highs will warm through the 70s and into the
80s with a few record highs possible Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday. Precipitation looks rather meager through this period.
Weak embedded energy under the upper ridge could spark a few
showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain. Lapse rates
will be steep, and CAPE values of 100-300 j/kg along with any
weak energy moving through the ridge will likely spark any
thunderstorm activity. Wednesday looks like the most likely day,
mainly over the San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo ranges.
Lightning will be the main concern with any thunderstorms that
do develop. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected across the
Plains. A few areas on Thursday, mainly wind prone and gap wind
areas, could see elevated fire weather concerns.

Friday through Saturday...an upper trough is forecast to move
across the Rockies during this period. Models have converged on
a more progressive system, with a track that will bring higher
wind potential than precipitation chances for southern
Colorado. Strong southwest to westerly flow will spread across
the region by Friday afternoon, with high fire danger possible
for most of the Plains. As the trough passes to the north Friday
night, a cold front will arrive on the Plains. This front has
the potential to bring a few showers north of Highway 50 on
Saturday. South of Highway 50, elevated fire weather conditions
will remain in place. As for precipitation, mountain areas will
see snow and rain with possibly a few rumbles of thunder. Lower
elevations at this time look mostly dry, with the exception of
the Palmer Divide, southeast across Kiowa County, where a few
showers will be possible. After highs in the 80s on Friday,
temperatures will fall off into the 60s and 70s for Saturday.

Sunday into Monday...zonal flow to weak upper ridging will
spread across Colorado for late in the weekend into early next
week. Any precipitation associated with the passing trough looks
to be to the east, with dry weather these days. Temperatures
will also be warming, with 60s on Sunday, back into the 70s by
Monday. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. High level cloudiness is forecast to continue to
stream across the area into this evening, with clearing
overnight. Occasional gusty winds currently at COS out of the
south, and at PUB out of the west, is expected to transition to
a more north-northwest direction this afternoon by 21z, 22z, at
around 15 kts and to continue until around 04z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY/MW
AVIATION...MOORE