631
FXUS62 KRAH 120540
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
142 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Minor PoP adjustments for this weekend, otherwise no major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Friday...

1) Unsettled wx pattern this weekend, potentially wet at times later
Saturday.

2) Mainly dry with temps closer to seasonable values much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Friday...

1) Unsettled wx pattern this weekend, potentially wet at times later
Saturday.

An upper short wave trough currently moving across the Miss Valley
will lift NE across the TN Valley tomorrow and exit off the Mid-
Atlantic coast by mid-day Sunday.  In response, we`ll see several
opportunities for showers and tstms through early Sunday, the first
of which being widely scattered showers and tstms the rest of today,
a few of which could include an isolated strong or possibly damaging
wind gust (see SWODY1 for additional details).

Saturday, particularly later in the day and early night, appears to
be the most unsettled part of the weekend as the trough approaches
and begins moving across. While a shower/tstm will be possible any
time Saturday, the most likely time and best coverage will likely be
late in the day from mid-afternoon hours through the late evening
hours. It`s worth noting that central NC is included in the Days 1
and 2 ERO, so any of the heavier downpours could results in isold
flooding of the typical spots that are more sensitive to heavy
downpours, such as urban and low-lying areas.

While the bulk of the prefrontal shower/tstm activity should be to
our east by daybreak Sunday morning, we can`t rule out a few
additional showers or tstms assoc with the actual frontal passage
which will occur later Sunday, thus the reason for the ongoing
elevated PoPs Sunday afternoon; however, coverage and intensity
should be much less compared to the previous day.

2) Mainly dry with temps closer to seasonable values much of next
week.

Most of next week will be dry thanks to an upper ridge that will be
positioned to our west much of the time and resulting dry northerly
flow. In addition, the airmass... while still a few deg above
normal... will at least be closer to normal with highs each day
generally in the 80s.  It`s worth noting that a closed upper trough,
broken off from a larger-scale trough moving off the Northeast
states early next week, will drift south parallel to the East Coast.
 Today`s NWP models forecast it to remain far enough offshore so
that our only impact from it will be occasional gusty NE winds at
times during the mid-week period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 142 AM Saturday...

VFR will largely prevail across central NC trough 06z-09z, with low
stratus expected to develop over central NC. All terminals likely to
experience IFR conditions. A period of LIFR is even possible around
daybreak, along with patchy MVFR/IFR visibilities. VFR will return
to most areas by midday on Saturday, but MVFR may linger into early
afternoon around the Triad. Showers and storms are then expected to
develop in the afternoon across the region, and they should be more
widespread compared to today. Brief gusty winds and sub-VFR
conditions will be possible with any storms.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through this
evening as a cold front makes its way through central NC.
Low stratus and/or fog may develop and cause sub-VFR restrictions
again on Sunday and Monday mornings as well.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco