494
FXUS62 KRAH 311718
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1256 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will move
further offshore as high pressure to our north extends south into
the area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 112 PM Sunday...

Cool nely sfc flow continues to extend into central NC this
afternoon. Mid to high level cloudiness over the Piedmont/Coastal
Plain will diminish with time this afternoon, after which expect a
clearing trend through sunrise Monday morning.  Dry conditions will
persist the next 24 hours otherwise. Expect overnight lows in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 112 PM Sunday...

High pressure will continue to extend cooler and drier nely flow
into central NC on Monday. Expect a bit of afternoon gustiness again
(15 to 20 kts in the east) with comfortable highs in the upper 70s
to around 80 again. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s are
expected again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Sunday...

* Several fronts provide roller coaster temperatures mid-week into
  the weekend.

* Precipitation chances remain limited through extended forecast.

Persistent northerly surface winds gradually veer to southerly Wed
night and provides several days of southerly moisture return and
rising low-level thicknesses into the weekend. This will result in a
gradual rise in temperatures and increasing humidity from Wed to
Sat. The warmest of which will likely be Sat ahead of the next
frontal passage and appreciable airmass change. Statistical guidance
suggest a rise into the mid/upper 80s around the Triangle is
expected with around 90 across the Sandhills. The most aggressive
with the southerly temp advection is the deterministic GFS, which
has a tendency to over mix and result in higher temperatures in the
medium range, and suggests at least mid 90s could be possible. This
solution has been thrown out given its drastic differences from the
general consensus forecast, but a trend to watch heading into the
weekend.

Precipitation chances remain limited through the extended forecast
with the best chances Wed afternoon/evening and potentially again on
Sat. The moisture return off the Atlantic and the gradually rising
temperatures may result in weak instability over the Piedmont Wed
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms may be possible as
neutral H5 height tendency and presence of a lee-trough in the
Piedmont may trigger shallow convection. Weakly enhanced
southwesterlies aloft will contribute to 20-30 kts of shear during
peak heating and may result in weakly organized multicells if
convection were to develop. By Fri, convection should be greatly
limited by strong shortwave ridging building across the Mid-Atlantic
and abundant dry air aloft. Precipitation chances may again increase
on Sat as a more appreciable cold front is forecast to traverse the
Mid-Atlantic, but timing differences result in low probabilities at
this point.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 112 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions continue this afternoon with persistent nely sfc flow
and gusts up to 15 to 20 kts at a few of our TAF sites. Expect any
gustiness to largely subside this evening, although a little
stirring remains possible tonight. Nnely sfc flow will pick up again
a bit Monday afternoon with gusts of up to 15 kts or so possible
again.

A streak of bkn to overcast high clouds are currently moving across
the Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain this afternoon.  After this
feature exits our area, expect a clearing trend into the overnight
hours.  Dry weather is generally expected today through tomorrow as
high pressure continues to extend into our area from the northeast.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday. A
weak system may generate showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Luchetti