719
FXUS62 KRAH 301734
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1235 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will linger this morning, then yield to a quasi-
stationary, wedge front that will develop over the central Carolinas
later today. A cold front will move across the region early tonight.
Another area of cold high pressure will build briefly overhead
Monday, then offshore ahead of coastal low pressure that will
develop and rapidly strengthen while tracking along and offshore the
South and Middle Atlantic coasts Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Sunday...

* Spotty light rain expected through the day ahead of a cold front.

* Large temperature gradient expected, as a wedge airmass keeps the
  NW Piedmont cooler.

As of 2am, a band of light rain is currently located just west of
the NC/TN border, ahead of a cold front. This rain looks to break up
over the mountains and reach central NC as a broken or thin band of
light rain this morning. This line should continue to move across
the region through the afternoon and looks to exit the area
completely after midnight with the passage of the cold front. QPF
amounts will be light, with less than 0.1 inches expected for most
of the region. The 00Z HREF is showing an area along the I-85
corridor from around the Triangle to the northeast with the
potential for up to around 0.15 inches.

A large temperature gradient is expected to develop during the day
today, as in-situ CAD should keep the NW Piedmont cool through the
day and into tonight. Highs look to range from mid/upper 40s in the
northwest to low/mid 60s in the southeast. Temperatures overnight
should drop into the upper 20s in the northwest and in the upper 30s
to around 40 in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

* A cold, soaking rain Mon night-early Tue, flanked by a pair of
  unseasonably chilly and dry areas of high pressure Mon and later
  Tue-Tue night

The models are in relatively good agreement with the progression of
a mid/upr-level trough, one comprised of at least a couple of
shortwave perturbations now over the Intermountain West and
Northwest Territories, across the Plains and MS Valley Mon-Mon night
and the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas by late Tue-early Tue night.
Preceding the trough, and around a persistent sub-tropical ridge
over the sub-tropical swrn N. Atlantic, low to mid-level flow will
accelerate and direct a plume of anomalous moisture, characterized
by PWs of 150-200% of normal, from the Gulf poleward and along the
East Coast through Tue-Tue night.

At the surface, the center of a 1038 mb, Arctic high now over the
nrn High Plains will migrate quickly ewd and across the OH Valley
and Middle Atlantic Mon and Northeast and to near Nova Scotia Mon
night, while steadily weakening. A narrow, dry air ridge will extend
swwd from the transitory high and across the favored cold air
damming region of VA and the Carolinas Mon night and early Tue. It
will do so ahead of initially elongated low pressure from the coasts
of the cntl Gulf to the Carolinas coast and which will consolidate
and rapidly deepen along the coasts of the Middle Atlantic and srn
New England Tue and Atlantic Canada Tue night. A weaker high than
the first will follow and build from the srn Plains Tue to the OH
and TN Valleys Tue night.

The transitory nature and positioning of the Arctic high is not
favorable for wintry precipitation in cntl NC; and forecast partial
thickness and surface wet bulb freezing values, and top-down from
point soundings, all indeed suggest just a cold rain for cntl NC.
The exception will be near and just northwest of the Triad, where a
short period of freezing rain will be possible immediately after
onset Mon night, before there too any freezing rain becomes self-
limiting in the absence of a continued supply of cold/dry air from a
more-favorably located and anchored parent high. Storm total
rainfall amounts are expected to average around one inch, to perhaps
one and a quarter to half inch in the Coastal Plain, where low-level
Fgen nearest the deepening cyclone may yield a localized maximum.

It will otherwise be continued unseasonably chilly and dry, both
ahead of the cyclone and with dry conditions and increasing high
clouds on Mon and in cold advection and clearing later Tue into Tue
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

* Dry and continued unseasonably chilly/cold, while under the
  influence of a couple of cold highs mid to late week

* Wet late Fri-early Sat, with a slight chance of fleeting wintry
  across the Piedmont at onset

The pattern across the mid-latitudes will remain generally cold but
progressive through the period. The progressive nature of the
pattern will favor a continuation of transitory and weakening Arctic
highs as they migrate across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic,
then offshore. To get more than a cold rain into cntl NC, the next
system from the Southwest would need to eject quickly and interact,
briefly, with the retreating Arctic cold and dry, which the
deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates would be fleeting at
precipitation onset at best.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as chilly surface
high pressure builds in from the west. A second chilly high will
build down from the north on Friday before moving offshore. The next
wave will move across the Southeast US in the southwest flow aloft
sometime Friday/Saturday, potentially spawning a coastal low and
bringing additional precipitation. Details such as timing and
amounts are still uncertain at this time. Below-normal temperatures
will likely continue from Wednesday through Friday, with confidence
decreasing by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF
period. The approach of some light rain/showers ahead of a cold
front will favor a period of some IFR to MVFR restrictions, mainly
in the form of low ceilings, though some brief low visibilities are
possible at RDU and RWI. The main time period for these restrictions
are expected between 19 and 00z at GSO/INT and 00-07z at the eastern
terminals. There could be some brief IFR conditions prior to 20z at
GSO/INT but this should not be prolonged. As the front moves
through, rain will end, with a return to VFR, and some gustiness is
possible from the north of up to 20 kt, most favored at the eastern
terminals. These northerly gusts may continue through 18z Mon at
FAY/RWI. While prior LLWS was included in the TAFs, we omitted it
for the 18z package given a lack of pilot reports and SSW winds
developing, leading to only a minor potential.

Outlook: After VFR returns Mon, another storm system will bring
widespread rain and IFR or lower conditions late Mon night through
Tue. VFR returns Wed and Thu under high pressure. Another late-week
system may bring rain/showers late Fri-Sat.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS/Danco
AVIATION...AK