403
FXUS62 KRAH 051834
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will ridge into the area from the north today
as an area of low pressure tracks northeastward across the Southeast
US and off the Carolina coast. The low will continue east over the
Atlantic tonight, with weak high pressure settling over the region
through the weekend. A mostly dry Arctic cold front will move
through on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Overview: Aloft, a pair of s/w disturbances embedded within the
longwave trough extending from TX to the Southeast US will track
enewd into and across the region through today, then continue
offshore this eve/tonight. At the surface, the cold front has moved
south of the area, while the 1020mb Arctic high was centered over
ern NY as of 06Z, ridging sswwd across the mid-Atlantic in the wake
of the front. The surface low was analyzed near the AL/FL panhandle,
the frontal zone draped to the southwest and an inverted trough
extending newd along the wrn Appalachians. The ridge should continue
to amplify as it build into central NC this morning, while the
surface low drifts slowly ewd along the Gulf Coast. A secondary
coastal low should develop along the cold front, within a
strengthening inverted trough off the Southeast US coast this
morning, then deepen as it lifts newd offshore today and tonight.

Precipitation: The shield of stratiform rain associated with warm
advection aloft should continue through this morning. While mostly
rain, some places have had a mix of rain and sleet, but with the
weaker ridge and later arrival of cold air, the extent of potential
wintry precip has trended downward. Point soundings from the RAP and
NAM along the NC/VA border still show saturation in the dendritic
growth zone, with thermal profiles most supportive of rain changing
to a mix of sleet and snow this morning. However, with the mix of
sleet and a shorter expected duration , expected accumulations have
also decreased. The thermal profiles become even less supportive of
wintry precipitation with southward extent, with all rain expected
south of I-85. Along I-85 from the Triad to the Triangle, wintry
precip is looking less likely and while there could be some snow or
sleet mixing with rain, latest point soundings indicate rain as the
dominant p-type and little to no non-liquid accumulation. Locations
where snow/sleet does occur should see a transition to all rain
later this morning. The rain should then come to an end from NW to
SE through the afternoon, possibly lingering over the far south or
southeast into tonight. With all of the above in mind, have amended
the advisory to end at noon instead of midnight. There is still
enough uncertainty to not trim back the areal extent of the advisory
at this time, however the advisory counties not touching the VA
border may be trimmed prior to daybreak if snow does not
materialize.

Temperatures: Lows this morning should range from low 30s along the
VA border, to low 40s along the SC border. Highs still expected to
be well below normal, ranging from mid 30s north to mid 40s south.
Lows tonight expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM Friday...

* Rain chances in the far SE, mainly Sat afternoon, and continued
  chilly.

The frontal zone will hold SE of the area Sat, with weak high
pressure sitting over the Carolinas. As we`ll stay within a fast WSW
mid level flow, the potential remains that subtle and hard-to-time
perturbations will ride within this flow over SC and SE NC Sat/Sat
night. There remains some model agreement on the right entrance
region of the upper jet scraping across NC Sat afternoon, yielding
associated enhanced upper divergence and resulting in a brief
northwestward bump in the NW edge of the precip shield Sat
afternoon. But the overall forcing for ascent appears to be modest
and fleeting and focused on the far SE CWA, with the bulk of the
moisture restricted to the mid and upper levels, as the opportunity
for moisture return in the low levels is lacking. As such, expect
the chance for any rain to be largely confined to areas well SE of
the Triangle, with light amounts overall, and pops tapering down and
out toward midnight. Clouds should be largely overcast, especially
over the S and E sections, and this low insolation will result in
chilly highs in the mid 40s to around 50, followed by lows in the
mid 20s to mid 30s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday. . .

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Sun-Tues.
-Precip chances increase overnight Sunday into Monday.
-Dry weather expected Tuesday through late week.

High pressure will shift off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday,
allowing a weak front to move across the region late Sunday night
into Monday. Moisture will be limited, but a few light showers are
possible. With temperatures in the mid to upper 30s as precip
arrives, a brief rain/snow mix is possible across the northern
Piedmont, potentially edging slightly farther south Monday morning
as colder, drier air begins to filter in behind the front.
Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, followed by a stronger
push of cool, dry air Monday night. Lows will fall into the upper
teens to lower 20s by early Tuesday. High pressure then dominates
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry conditions with highs in the low
to mid 40s and lows in the 20s Tuesday and mainly 30s Wednesday.
A clipper system will track across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
exit off the New England coast Thursday. At this time, associated
precip is expected to remain north of central NC, keeping the area
dry through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 112 PM Thursday...

IFR/LIFR conditions persist at each terminal as light rain continues
to move east across central NC this afternoon. We`ll stay socked in
through majority of the 24 hour TAF period as anomalous low-level
moisture continues to pool along and east of the Appalachians. Any
lingering rain this afternoon should mostly push east of central NC
by this evening. Otherwise, there is a consistent signal in the high-
res guidance for potentially dense fog developing along the NC/VA
border and oozing south across our northern Piedmont. KINT/KGSO/KRDU
would therefore have the best chance for seeing considerably reduced
visibilities from dense fog tonight.

Any lingering for should lift by ~13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will
likely persist through the end of the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: Dense fog will again be possible Saturday night/Sunday
morning as anomalous low-level moisture lingers of central NC.  A
short-wave will induce light precipitation (likely mostly rain, but
perhaps a chance for some winter weather across the north) on
Monday. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to
middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti