066
FXUS62 KRAH 021920
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The fog potential appears a little less likely tonight with
  better much chances on Tuesday night.

* Wednesday and Wednesday night will largely be dry with rain
  chances and amounts decreasing for Thursday with the main
  focus for at least a little rain now delayed into Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Monday...

1) Some patchy dense fog is possible late tonight and
especially on Tuesday night.

2) Above normal temperatures continue through Friday with rain
chances shifting primarily to Friday afternoon, followed by a dry,
cooler weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Some patchy dense fog is possible late tonight and
especially on Tuesday night.

The upper level disturbance that produced some VFR sprinkles and
spotty rain earlier today is now exiting the area. Areas of mid and
high clouds are now shifting east.

The low level flow will gradually veer around and become more
easterly and southeasterly supporting an increase in low level
moisture. As we dive deeper into the transition season with cooler
and longer nights, the potential for fog and some stratus
increases. Areas of fog are possible tonight across eastern
areas in the Coastal Plain and the eastern Piedmont and more
widespread and impactful on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Outside of the fog and stratus, fair weather is expected over the
next couple of days with highs in the mid and upper 70s on Tuesday
with lows tonight and Tuesday night in the 40s to around 50.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures
continue through Friday with rain chances shifting primarily to
Friday afternoon, followed by a dry, cooler weekend.

A frontal system approaching the Mississippi Valley Wednesday
morning will lift a warm front northward across the Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. The primary cold front
will cross the region Thursday night into Friday before pushing
offshore Friday evening, followed by a weak, dry reinforcing
boundary early Saturday.

As mentioned before, model guidance has trended notably drier for
Thursday, shifting the primary focus for precipitation to Friday
afternoon. The highest coverage remains focused along and east of
the US1 corridor. PoPs and QPF have been trimmed back for Thursday,
though an isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible during
the afternoon. The good news is that models continue to agree and
show the reinforcing dry frontal boundary sweeping across the region
late Friday into early Saturday, assuring a dry weekend.

Temperatures will run 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normal
through Friday, with highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s and mild
overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Expect overnight lows to
return to the 40s Saturday night, with highs moderating into the 60s
Sunday and Monday.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions will continue to prevail across
central NC through the evening hours before a few areas of fog
and possibly low stratus develop after midnight. The upper level
disturbance that produced some VFR sprinkles and spotty rain earlier
today is now exiting the area. Areas of mid and high clouds with
this feature are pushing east and VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening with mainly SCT clouds at various levels.

Guidance indicates areas of mainly MVFR fog and some stratus
(possibly some IFR restrictions) are possible after midnight tonight
across the Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont favoring the KRWI and
KRDU terminals and possibly at KFAY. Restrictions appear to be
unlikely at KGSO and KINT. Any restrictions should quickly improve
during the morning with VFR conditions area wide by midday.

Light northeast winds at 4 to 8 kts today will diminish to
less than 5 kts overnight. Light winds will becoming more easterly
and even southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Another round of fog and low stratus is expected to be more
widespread on Wednesday morning. A disturbance and slow moving cold
front may bring some showers and adverse aviation conditions across
the region on Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, fair weather is
expected through the period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/CA
AVIATION...Blaes