805
FXUS62 KRAH 150530
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* No major changes with the early morning forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

1) Seasonable and drier conditions persist through Wed night
with unseasonably hot weather returning late week into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable and drier conditions persist
through Wed night with unseasonably hot weather returning late
week into the weekend.

A few days of near zero rain chances is expected as a highly
anomalous and potentially record breaking mid/upper lvl
subtropical ridge (+2.5 to 3 standardized height anomalies from
850 to 200mb Tues through Thurs night) builds over the TN Valley
and southern Appalachians; perhaps even reaching 600 dam at H5
by Wed. Thankfully, strong convergence aloft on the backside of
a shortwave to our northeast will favor building high pressure
over the Northeast and ridging down into the Carolinas into
Wednesday, supporting a brief dip down to seasonable
temperatures (not-as-hot). However, this will not last as
surface ridging begins to weaken over the western Atlantic and
bring a moderating trend back to 10-15 degrees above normal into
the weekend.

NWP ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement in the
development of a an area of mid/upper-lvl low pressure
developing off the Southeast coast, sliding west underneath the
subtropical ridge and then stalling somewhere near the northern
Gulf coast this weekend. As is typically the case with cutoff
lows, forecast uncertainty is high on their evolution and when
they will be picked up by any approaching troughs, but it does
appear this feature may play a role in bringing more widespread
precipitation chances to the area next week.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF
period. Low-VFR cigs are expected around the Triad terminals
this morning and may linger well into the late morning hours.
There is a chance this ceiling may come in around 2 kft in the
9-13z window and a TEMPO has been introduced to cover this
possibility based on observations upstream of the Triad (KHRJ
and KSOP) and more pessimistic model guidance, which show these
MVFR cigs may develop as far east as RDU. These cigs should
begin to lift/scatter through 16-17z. Brief gustiness around 15
kts is possible for a couple hours after sunrise as diurnal
mixing quickly taps into flow just off the surface. Light
northeast flow persists through the remainder of the daylight
hours before most locations go calm Tues night into Wed
morning.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will extend across the Middle
Atlantic and favor prevailing VFR conditions in cntl NC for at
least the next several days. The only exception to VFR will be a
chance of shallow, ground fog at RWI due to local effects Wed
through Fri morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS/MWS