236
FXUS62 KRAH 151831
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will continue to interact with a weak
frontal boundary as it sags south across the area through Monday.
By Tuesday, the front will lift back north as a warm front, with
strong upper level ridging building westward across the region
through mid to late week, bringing hot and humid conditions, and
less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

*Flood Watch in effect through 11 PM tonight

*Significant impacts such as flooded structures, impassable roadways
and possible water rescues are possible in the hardest hit areas.

A weak upper trough traversing the region will interact with a quasi-
stationary frontal zone draped across the Va Tidewater and
northeastern NC, along with an anomalously moist airmass, to support
favorable conditions for heavy rain and flooding this afternoon
through late this evening.

Moderate to strong destabilization coupled with a weak mid-level
disturbance moving into the area is supporting scattered showers and
storms across the area at this time. By this evening, convective
outflows will help to propel the frontal zone and enhanced axis of
moisture convergence and lift south into central NC during the
evening and overnight hours. Rainfall totals on the order of 2-3
inches, with locally higher amounts expected, mainly along and north
and east of US-64 including the Triangle, Rocky Mount, Goldsboro,
and Roanoke Rapids.

Areas with saturated soils from recent days of heavy rainfall,
particularly urban areas, will be especially vulnerable to flooding.
Significant impacts such as flooded structures, impassable roadways
and possible water rescues are possible in the hardest hit areas.
Never drive through floodwaters and avoid streams, rivers, and
drainage areas.

There is also an isolated threat for strong to severe storms, with
the best chance across northern portions of the piedmont and coastal
plain in proximity to slightly enhanced effective shear of 25-30
kts.

Convection should weaken and wane by midnight with widespread
stratus/low clouds developing area-wide as the front stalls over the
area. Overnight lows ranging from upper 60s/near 70 north to lower
70s south.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

*A stalled frontal zone will result in a lingering risk for isolated
flash flooding Monday afternoon and evening

Anomalously moist PWATs of 2-2.25" will remain in place as a sfc
boundary bisects the area.

Forcing for ascent will be limited, but a couple of weak upper
disturbances,  along with differential heating, weak low-level
convergence along the boundary, and convective outflows, will
initiate and sustain convection through the afternoon and
evening hours.

The primary threat remains localized flash flooding, especially in
areas with recent heavy rainfall. Urban areas and poor drainage
locations will be especially vulnerable.

Poor mid-level lapse rates and weak flow aloft will limit stronger
updrafts and convective organization. However, an isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower/mid 80s north, and
upper upper 80s/near 90 south, as morning stratus layer gradually
lifts and scours out.

Convection will wane during the late evening with widespread low
clouds likely to redeveloping overnight. Lows will range from upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Aloft, high pressure will sit off the Southeast US coast through
Thu. A northern stream s/w will track enewd across the Appalachians,
clipping the area as it traverses the periphery of the ridge late
Tue/Tue night. Another s/w will move across the nrn Plains and upr
MS Valley Tue/Wed. The trough will amplify along the Appalachians
Thu, then slide ewd across the region Thu night/Fri. The ridge will
build back across the Southeast in the wake of the trough on Sat,
then strengthen as it sits over the TN/Valley/cntl Appalachians on
Sun. At the surface, a persistent trough will sit over the area
through Thu/Thu night. A front will approach from the NW/north Thu
night/Fri, potentially moving into the area Fri/Sat.

Convection: Without a significant airmass change through Thu, expect
diurnally driven convection to continue, with highest chances and
potential for a few strong storms on Tue and Thu, associated with
the s/w passages aloft. The weather should be less convectively
active Fri-Sun, but iso to sct aft/eve showers/storms cannot be
completely ruled out.

Temperatures: It still looks like Wed and Thu should be the hottest
days, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. With the continued
high humidity, some locations (from the Triangle, to Fayetteville,
to Rocky Mount) could see max heat index values in the 99 to 103
range both days. Also concerning are the overnight lows, which in
those same areas may only drop into the mid 70s Tue night and Wed
night. While heat index values may be shy of Heat Advisory criteria
(105-109 degrees), the compound effects of prolonged heat and
humidity with little relief overnight could be problematic for some
mid-week. While there is still some uncertainty, if the front is
able to move into the area late-week, expect a noticeable drop in RH
and overnight low temperatures, with slightly lower highs expected
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

Ceiling across central NC have mainly lifted to the low VFR range
early this afternoon. Showers and storms are beginning to develop
across the region, and they are expected to become more numerous
during the rest of the afternoon into the evening as an upper
disturbance interacts with a frontal zone draped across SE VA and NE
NC. Any storms could result in heavy rain and gusty winds, along
with sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Rain chances will be
greatest in the north and east, including at RDU and RWI, in closest
proximity to the boundary. The TAFs tried to time out the period
when there is the best chance for showers and storms at each site,
generally earliest in the west and latest in the east, but they are
certainly possible outside of these time windows as well. In fact,
another round of convection is possible in the late evening and
early overnight hours, according to some high-res models. Rain
chances should mostly come to an end after 06z, but isolated showers
still can`t be ruled out in the east.

The focus will then turn to IFR ceilings that are expected to move
in from north to south after 06z, before lifting to MVFR in the mid
to late morning. LIFR ceilings and some reduced visibilities from
fog/mist can`t be ruled out either. Southern areas including FAY may
scatter to VFR by early afternoon. SW winds in the 5-10 kt range,
possibly gusting to 15-20 kts at times, will diminish overnight and
shift more northerly behind the front as it moves south into the
area.

Looking beyond 18z Monday: Scattered to numerous showers and storms,
focused through the evening hours, are expected again Mon and Tue
afternoon/evening. A period of sub-VFR cigs is possible early Mon
morning and early Tue morning. The chance for precipitation and
early-morning low clouds will decrease from Wednesday through Friday
as high pressure builds aloft, but isolated to scattered
showers/storms will still be possible each day.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

Computer System Upgrade at NWS Raleigh from June 16th through
18th...

The National Weather Service Raleigh Weather Forecast Office
in Raleigh will be conducting a required, scheduled update
to our Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
computer system. NWS offices use AWIPS to display and integrate
weather and water information, and to send life-saving
information, such as weather and water warnings, to the public.

AWIPS is updated periodically, but this update is comprehensive
and requires that the system be taken completely offline for
approximately three days, from the morning of Monday, June 16th
through the afternoon hours of Wednesday, June 18th. During that
time, NWS Raleigh forecasters will produce and disseminate
products for the area using the AWIPS system at one of our backup
offices at NWS Blacksburg, VA. No impacts to our core services of
forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are
expected during this period.

A few of our services will be impacted as they originate only
from AWIPS facilities at NWS Raleigh, namely:

* NOAA Weather Radio broadcast: The following NOAA Weather Radio
  transmitters, programmed by NWS Raleigh, will be off the air
  during most of the AWIPS update:

Buck Mountain (WWF 60 - 162.500 mhz)
Chapel Hill (WXL 58 - 162.550 mhz)
Ellerbe(WNG 597 - 162.400 Mhz)
Garner(WNG 706 - 162.450 mhz)
Henderson (WNG 586 - 162.500 mhz)
Tarboro (WXL 59 - 162.475 mhz)
Winston-Salem (WXL 42 - 162.400 mhz)

* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook images normally at
  www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rah will not be updated.

* The Weather Story available at
https:/www.weather.gov/rah/weatherstory will not be updated.

* NWS Raleigh will remain operational and staffed while AWIPS is
  offline, taking public and partner phone calls, communicating via
  social media, and performing other functions that can be completed
  without AWIPS.

We apologize for any inconvenience. Please direct any questions
to Jonathan Blaes at jonathan.blaes@noaa.gov

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Danco/Badgett
EQUIPMENT...RAH