578
FXUS62 KRAH 190629
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
229 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A Heat Advisory has been issued for much of the region today,
  except for portions of the Piedmont. Timing is 11 AM through
  800 PM.

* There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5)
  across the state this afternoon into tonight, including all of
  central NC. The main threat will be damaging wind.


 &&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 229 AM Sunday...

1) A Heat Advisory has been issued for much of the region today,
except portions of the Piedmont. Timing is 11 AM through 800
PM.

2) There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2 of 5)
across the state this afternoon into tonight, including all of
central NC. The main threat will be damaging wind.

3) Continued periods of unsettled weather this week as a
stalled front lingers across NC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 229 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Heat Advisory has been issued for much of the
region today, except portions of the Piedmont. Timing is 11 AM
through 800 PM.

Yet another Heat Advisory has been issued for today. It is
generally in the same locations that had one on Saturday. Actual
highs will be a few degrees lower today; however, dew points
will be higher. Actual highs will mostly be in the mid 90s, with
dew points well up into the 70s. This will yield apparent
temperatures in the 105-107 range for several hours. Timing of
convective development may be later today, given the latest
trends. This would give more time of sun and heat before we get
convectively overturned later or this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
(level 2 of 5) across the state this afternoon into tonight,
including all of central NC. The main threat will be damaging wind.

A cold front will be approaching the region later today from the
north in the over WNW flow aloft. We will be in the hot and moist
sector with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s and dew
points in the 70s. PW`s will continue to increase to 2+ inches. It
will become unstable very quickly today with most guidance
suggesting 1500 to 2000 j/kg (MUCAPE) by noon. Steepening lapse
rates will allow damaging wind potential to increase again this
afternoon in any thunderstorms. Wet microbursts are most likely.
CAMS suggests very late afternoon and this evening for storms to
grow in coverage with the potential for some localized flash
flooding as well. QPF will be variable, but average 0.25 to 0.50 in
the west, with 1+ inch in the east. Storms may linger again through
late evening and overnight along outflows.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Continued periods of unsettled weather this
week as a stalled front lingers across NC.

The front that will bring additional showers and storms to the area
on Sunday will stall on Monday, serving as the focal point for
additional development during the afternoon and evening hours. PW`s
will remain at or just above 2" which is well above the 90th
percentile for mid July, and periods of locally heavy rain can`t be
ruled out once again Monday afternoon evening.

Eventually the front itself will wash out on Tuesday although with
abundant moisture and a Piedmont trough remaining in place,
convection will remain likely Tuesday afternoon/evening. Meanwhile,
an upstream shortwave trough is forecast to cross the mountains
Wednesday with an attendant surface cold front in tow. With PW`s
still at or near 2" and nearly 2000 J/KG of MLCAPE available, strong
to severe storms are more than plausible with the front.
Significantly lower PW`s will follow the front with substantially
lower precip chances Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions should continue well into today. There
is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, and more likely
around 600 PM through the evening tonight. We will have
PROB30 mention for most areas through the afternoon, with an
uptick this evening.

Outlook: Areas of stratus or fog are expected after 06z tonight,
with conditions lowering from the NE overnight through daybreak
to IFR or LIFR. Additional showers/storms are expected through
midweek with associated lower CIGS and VSBYS at times. There
will also be low stratus and fog late night and morning as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 19:
KFAY: 101/2002

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KRDU: 80/1942
KFAY: 77/2023

July 20:
KGSO: 75/2019
KRDU: 76/2025

July 21:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/1932
KFAY: 80/2017

July 22:
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/2011
KFAY: 82/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for NCZ008>010-024>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/DL
AVIATION...Badgett