851
FXUS62 KRAH 240609
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
209 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* The severe threat has ended across the region, and the threat for
  scattered flash flooding will return tonight, this time across
  southern parts of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 500 PM Thursday...

1) An axis of showers storms will progress slowly ssewd across
central NC through early Friday, with an associated risk of
excessive rain mainly south of US-64.

2) The slow moving cold front pivoting back NW may result in another
heavy rain threat on Friday night, especially in southeastern parts
of the area.

3)  After another cool and rainy day Saturday, the chance of rain
will decrease and temperatures will return to normal late July
values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 500 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An axis of showers storms will progress slowly
ssewd across central NC through early Friday, with an associated
risk of excessive rain mainly south of US-64.

The synoptic cold front has now mostly cleared our region and is
draped near the SC/NC border. While rich Gulf moisture from Tropical
Storm Bertha continues to funnel NE along and north of the front,
with PW values of 2-2.4 inches across central NC, much of the
precipitation is now on the cool/stable side of the boundary where
surface winds are from the NE and dew points are dropping into the
60s. SPC mesoanalysis depicts marginal SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and central/southern
Coastal Plain, with plenty of CIN as well. So rainfall rates have
come down significantly from where they were this morning, and this
relative lull in precipitation is expected to continue through the
early evening. North of there in the stable regime, only some patchy
light rain and drizzle will continue. Temperatures have
underperformed guidance due to the widespread cloud cover and
precipitation, generally ranging from the upper-60s to mid-70s. The
current high of 73F at GSO would tie the record low maximum
temperature for the date if it holds, while the current high of 74F
at RDU would break the daily record low maximum of 76F.

Late this evening and overnight, high-res guidance depicts the
boundary may lift slightly back north again, with another wave of
convection riding along it. However, given the front should still be
pretty far south, weaker instability compared to this morning should
limit rainfall rates somewhat for most of the region. There could be
still be some heavy rates across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills,
and central/southern Coastal Plain, where a Flood Watch is in effect
until 9 AM Friday. But the sandy soils and little rainfall that had
fallen in those areas before this afternoon have kept FFG relatively
high, and 12z HREF probabilities of exceeding FFG are less in the
south tonight than they were this morning across the north. Thus WPC
dropped the moderate (level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall and
now has a slight (level 2 of 4) risk across most of the area.
Additional QPF from WPC through Friday morning is in the 1-2 inch
range on average across this region, but locally higher amounts will
be possible. 12z HREF LPMM depicts potential for very local amounts
as high as 4-6+ inches, which would certainly be enough to cause
issues if it falls in an urban area like Fayetteville or where heavy
rain already fell today. No mainstem rivers are forecast to reach
minor flood stage at this time, but it can`t be ruled out along the
Neuse, particularly at Smithfield where the current forecast reaches
just below flood stage on Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2... The slow moving cold front pivoting back NW may
result in another heavy rain threat on Friday night, especially in
southeastern parts of the area.

The cold front will remain pinned near the southern NC coast during
the day on Friday, which should help a relative lull in
precipitation occur across central NC during the afternoon and
evening. As surface high pressure wedges into the Piedmont, cool NE
flow will prevail in a CAD regime, with widespread stability and
mainly places again not getting out of the 70s. Patchy light rain
and drizzle will be possible as well.

A shortwave trough and associated surface low tracking to our south
and east look to provide additional forcing for ascent on Friday
night and help the boundary pivot back NW again into our region.
Moisture will return with 70s surface dew points creeping back in
and PW values increasing to 2-2.5 inches. How far NW the boundary is
able to get is still uncertain, but the 12z HREF depicts increasing
probabilities of exceeding FFG once again on Friday night, with
localized LPMM totals as high as 1-3 inches. Given all the rain that
will have already fallen up to that point, flooding may be a renewed
concern, and WPC has the SE half of our area in a slight (level 2 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall.


KEY MESSAGE 3... After another cool and rainy day Saturday, the
chance of rain will decrease and temperatures will return to normal
late July values.

The stationary front should remain somewhere along the North
Carolina/South Carolina border on Saturday, keeping a chance for
showers across the entire area, with the highest chances in the
south. As the front continues to weaken, just an isolated
thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday, and Monday appears to be
the first widespread day of dry weather in several days. As low
pressure moves along the US/Canadian border during the beginning of
next week, the accompanying cold front could make it as far south as
the Carolinas, bringing another chance for showers and storms.

Saturday will be yet another cool day, with highs ranging from the
mid 70s to the mid 80s. A return to sunny skies on Sunday, however,
should bring a warming trend with highs returning to the 80s
everywhere, and highs will return to near normal values in the low
to mid 90s Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 AM Friday...

In a regime of "overrunning" lift atop a frontal zone over cntl SC
and sern NC, with a related warm season cold air damming airmass
over cntl NC, current areas of MVFR ceilings across nrn NC to LIFR-
IFR ones across srn NC are forecast to lower uniformly into IFR-LIFR
during the next few hours, then only minimally lift today. While
light rain will be possible areawide throughout the TAF period,
elevated convection and related moderate to heavy rain and
significant visibility restrictions are expected at FAY, RWI, and
RDU at times, especially this morning. A second wave of convection
will accompany the approach and passage of a mid-level disturbance
this evening.

Outlook: Cold air damming and chances of rain and flight
restrictions will continue through Sat, followed by a return to a
more typical summertime pattern with diurnally-driven convection by
early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

July 24: KFAY: 81/1985

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ042-043-073>078-
083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danco/Blaes/Green
AVIATION...MWS