324
FXUS62 KRAH 291851
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
251 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continued downward trend in rain chances Sunday night/Monday, but
  increasing confidence in some rain mid to late next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 250 PM Thursday...

1) Well-above-normal temperatures expected on Friday.

2) Very light, non-accumulating rain, is possible Sunday night into
Monday. There is a much better chance for accumulating rainfall from
mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 250 PM Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Well-above-normal temperatures expected on Friday.

Ridging aloft will briefly build over the Midwest on Friday ahead of
a shortwave moving through the SW US.  A backdoor sold front will be
to our north and poised to push through the area Friday night with
cool high pressure to follow. Ahead of the front and downstream of
the ridging, thicknesses are correspondingly forecast to rise 20m
from thus morning to Friday morning, suggesting upper 70s to lower
80s.  Most MOS is a degree or two higher than the NBM, and will
leave toward MOS in a slightly amplified pattern, with highs of 80-
83.  These values were 10-15 degrees above normal but 2-3 degrees
below record values.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Very light, non-accumulating rain, is possible
Sunday night into Monday. There is a much better chance for
accumulating rainfall from mid to late next week.

A shortwave associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance
which is currently just south of Baja California will amplify as it
moves NE into the Southern Plains on Saturday, then track into the
Southeast US on Sunday/Monday. While it will result in widespread
mid-level cloud cover during this time, by the time the system gets
this far east, any precipitation looks to have a hard time reaching
the ground. This is due to fairly dry air in the low levels from
surface high pressure extending down the Eastern Seaboard behind
Friday night`s cold frontal passage. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance has trended to a mostly dry solution, keeping the deeper
moisture pinned to near the Gulf Coast and FL. Only about 10-20% of
ECM/GFS/CMC ensemble members depict any measurable precipitation
over central NC on Sunday night/Monday, and the ones that do are
very light. So POPs have again trended downward and are now below
the slight chance range.

Meanwhile, a deep mid/upper trough is forecast to progress from the
Western US on Sunday to the MS Valley on Wednesday and Thursday,
likely closing off into a low as it does so. At the surface, a
cyclone will develop and deepen over the Central Plains as a weaker
secondary low potentially develops over the Southern Plains and
lower MS Valley. An associated strong cold front will move east
across these areas as well. As the high to our NE moves away during
this time, it will be replaced by deep moist southerly flow ahead of
the aforementioned frontal system. The timing and degree of phasing
that occurs between the northern and southern stream pieces of
energy over the Western US will have a big impact on the timing and
strength of the system as it moves east, and that is still highly
uncertain at this time. However, ensemble guidance is in much better
agreement that we will at least receive some precipitation from mid
to late week, particularly on Thursday. Deterministic guidance is
generally wetter than the ensembles, but even ensemble means
indicate close to an inch of rain is possible on average. Severe
weather can`t be ruled out given the strong deep-layer flow, but
still too early to pinpoint exactly where that will be, and
instability looks fairly marginal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

TAF Period: Despite little change in airmass, fog potential looks
less favorable in model guidance for tonight.  Moisture appears to
be more confined to coastal areas, so have elected to just include
some MVFR at RWI and RDU via TEMPO.  However, persistence forecasts
would suggest leaning toward lower vsbys as an alternative scenario.

Outlook: A backdoor cold front will bring a more steady northeast
wind Friday night into Saturday, with VFR conditions are forecast
through at least Sunday, with a slight chance of a shower on Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS/Danco
AVIATION...BS