194
FXUS62 KRAH 070402
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1102 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak high
pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An
Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 946 PM Saturday...

We issued a Dense fog Advisory for our southern zones and a
Freezing Fog Advisory over the Triad and far northern Piedmont
along/north of I-85. The prior discussion follows below.

Prior discussion from this afternoon...

* Patchy light rain in the far southeast this afternoon, otherwise
  dry.

* Areas of dense fog likely tonight.

* Below normal temperatures expected.

A frontal system remains stalled off the NC coast, with the
associated low pressure well to our northeast. This has left weak
high pressure over the region. This should keep the majority of
central NC dry, with exception of the far southeast where patchy
light rain associated with the frontal boundary looks to be possible
over the next several hours. Temperatures this afternoon will stay
below normal for this time of year and are generally expected to
reach the low to mid 40s.

Additionally, in the overnight hours dense fog looks to be probable.
The HREF is showing the probability of visibilities less than 0.5
miles between about 50-70% for much of the region, with the higher
probabilities focused mostly in the southwest and to a lesser extent
the northeast regions of the CWA. Low temperatures overnight look to
dip at or below freezing everywhere, with mid/upper 20s in the
north. This means that anywhere fog may develop, freezing fog is
possible when temperatures are at and below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

* Continued fog expected into the morning hours.

* Temperatures slightly warmer than today, but still below normal.

Weak high pressure will continue to pass through the mid-Atlantic
through the day on Sunday ahead of an approaching trough and
associated cold front. Through the morning hours, areas of
potentially dense fog will slowly dissipate with the daytime
heating. After fog dissipates, partly cloudy skies are expected
throughout the afternoon, with increasing cloudiness overnight as
the cold front approaches. Increased low level thicknesses will
support slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday. Thus, highs are
expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows dipping in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. While most of the precipitation with the front
looks to hold off until after daybreak on Monday, there is a
possibility of some very light rain reaching western portions of the
region late Sunday night. Temperature profiles do not look conducive
of any wintry precipitation before sunrise on Monday at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

-Chilly, below average temperatures expected Mon-Tues.
-Light wintry mix possible Monday mainly across northern Piedmont.
-Another chance for precip late Thursday into Friday.

A cold front will move across the region on Monday, with cold air
chasing the departing precipitation through the day. Morning
temperatures will start near freezing along the VA border and in the
mid to upper 30s elsewhere. Rain will be the primary precipitation
type, but temperatures will gradually fall through the afternoon as
colder air arrives. This may allow for a rain/snow mix across
portions of the northern Piedmontgenerally from Rocky Mount to
Raleigh to Lexington. Before precipitation tapers off early Monday
evening, a brief changeover to light snow is possible near the VA
border. Any accumulations would be minor and mainly limited to
elevated surfaces given warm ground temperatures. All precipitation
will exit the region by Monday evening.
By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-
Atlantic. A surge of overnight cold air will allow temperatures to
drop into the upper teens to low 20s. With light to calm winds, any
leftover moisture on roads may freeze, creating the potential for
black ice during the Tuesday morning commute.
High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, supporting dry
weather. Highs both days will range from the low to mid-40s. Lows
will fall into the 20s Tuesday morning and into the mid to upper 30s
Wednesday morning.
Late in the week, another shortwave will move across the northern
US, bringing increasing precipitation chances. While guidance shows
some spread in the timing, track, and moisture availability, the
general consensus suggests precipitation could return by late
Thursday afternoonmainly across the NW Piedmontbefore a front
sweeps through the region on Friday. Conditions should dry out again
by Saturday morning. Behind the front, highs on Saturday will be
cool, in the upper 30s to low 40s, with another round of lows in the
upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM SATURDAY...

Widespread IFR to low MVFR stratus currently persists across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain (including FAY and RWI), but it will
continue to erode from NW to SE, providing a brief window
opportunity for VFR conditions there over the next several hours.
Meanwhile, over the northern and western Piedmont where clearing is
beginning to occur, visibilities are already lowering to MVFR and
even IFR in some spots, as the high clouds streaming across central
NC are beginning to shift SE. In fact, across south-central VA, many
sites are already reporting 1/4 mile visibilities. This is occurring
faster than much of the guidance depicted. These observations in
addition to a strong signal in the high-res guidance including the
HRRR, RAP, and GLAMP mean there is fairly high confidence in
widespread dense fog and LIFR conditions developing across all of
central NC from NW to SE from around 03z through the overnight
hours. Patchy freezing fog will even be possible as low temperatures
drop below freezing across much of the region. The fog will then
begin to lift and disperse by mid to late morning, with VFR
conditions expected everywhere by early afternoon. Winds will be
very light to calm tonight, remaining less than 5 kts during the day
tomorrow, as high pressure moves overhead.

Outlook: A clipper system will induce a light rain/snow mix that may
change to light snow, especially across northern areas, on Monday
afternoon. Associated sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities are likely
with this as well. VFR conditions will then persist from Monday
night through early Thursday. Another weather system will move into
the region late Thursday beginning another round of sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>011-
021>028-041.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ038>040-042-
043-073>078.
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Sunday for NCZ083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...AK/Helock
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BLS/Danco/CA