182
FXUS62 KRAH 170524
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front across Virginia and the western Carolinas will
dissipate through Thursday. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen
off the Carolina coast into early next week, bringing hot humid
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1107 PM Monday...

Flood Watch through 200 AM.

Ongoing flash flooding associated with the slow moving thunderstorms
over Cumberland into Sampson County will be winding down in the near
future. Most areas have been overturned today or this evening.
However, we still have convection flaring up on a widely scattered
basis nearing Stanly County from the west in our SW Piedmont area.
Those have been weakening. It appears that conditions are favorable
to allow the flood watch to end at 200 AM based on recent trends and
support from the latest CAMS. Very warm and humid conditions are
expected through the night with lows generally 70+.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

The stationary front that is currently near the Virginia-North
Carolina border will lift north during the day, but remain in close
enough proximity to allow for additional showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm north of US-
64 during the evening, but conditions will dry out overnight.
Considering the boundary will be moving away from the area,
rainfall rates should not be as intense as they were yesterday
and are forecast to be today, so the area is not under a threat
of excessive rainfall or severe weather. Highs will range from
the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Lows will only drop into the 70s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Wednesday should be a relative respite from widespread
precipitation, although at least a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms will continue to the west of I-95.
However, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front
approaches the region. There is still some timing uncertainty as
to when the front will move - models are currently showing the
greatest amount of precipitation during the evening. If the
frontal passage is indeed during the overnight hours, this will
help to limit the severe weather potential. However, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted most of the area (except
southeastern counties) under a 15% probability on Thursday,
equivalent to a Slight Risk. The primary threat would be
damaging wind gusts. The front will linger across the North
Carolina coastline Friday and Saturday before dissipating,
keeping minimal chances for rain east of US-1 both afternoons.
With no synoptic forcing around, Sunday and Monday both appear
to be dry days.

The greater hazard during the extended forecast may not come
from the thunderstorms, but from the heat and humidity. On
Wednesday and Thursday, a good portion of the forecast area
should have heat index values between 100 and 105, which is just
below Heat Advisory criteria of 105. Both of those days will
have highs in most locations in the 90s. While the cold front
will drop high temperatures a few degrees on Friday, highs will
rise again for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with all locations
reaching into the 90s. In addition, with the exception of
northern locations Thursday and Friday nights, lows will only
fall into the 70s throughout this stretch of days. The compound
effects of prolonged heat and humidity with little relief
overnight could be problematic for some over the weekend.

&&


.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are expected to slowly
weaken over central NC through 09z-10z. These may affect the RDU
area, but should stay south of the Triad region. Otherwise, MVFR to
IFR cigs are expected to develop between 07z-10z, lasting until 12z-
13z, with improvement to VFR expected by 15z to 17z at all sites as
cigs rise to VFR.

Only isolated showers and storms are expected during the afternoon
into the evening with generally VFR conditions.

Looking beyond 06z Wed, there is a chance of sub-VFR conditions
early Wednesday morning. While isolated storms may occur Wednesday
afternoon, the next best chance of thunderstorms will be late
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, when some storms could
become strong. Otherwise, chances for afternoon/evening storms will
be minimal.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Badgett