406
FXUS62 KRAH 241901
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 pM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure moves offshore tonight, two fronts will bring
precipitation to much of the East Coast for Tuesday and Wednesday
before high pressure brings cool and dry weather locally for
Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

High pressure is currently centered over
eastern Virginia and will slowly drift offshore this afternoon and
overnight. Meanwhile, low pressure is over Oklahoma and will move
east into the Ohio River Valley overnight. A few high clouds will
move into the area from the west this afternoon, but high
temperatures will still be above normal, reaching into the 60s in
all locations. While sky cover will become more widespread and
thicker overnight, conditions will remain dry. The cloud cover will
help keep low temperatures slightly warmer than last night, with
most locations falling into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

As the surface high shifts offshore Tuesday morning return flow from
the coast will help initial a few spotty showers early morning,
especially across the eastern portions of the CWA. The parent
surface low centered over western TN early Tuesday will have a cold
front extending south and a warm front extending across the
Southeast. As the warm front lifts through the day Tuesday expect
temperatures to increase with strong southerly flow as well as PW
values (ranging from 1-1.5 early Tuesday morning). By late Tuesday
evening the warm front will be expected to lift across the area
bringing an increased chance for numerous showers and storms
overnight. SPC has our area only in general thunder at this time as
CAPE will be limited. A few stronger storms with higher wind gusts
could be possible. Temperatures on Tuesday will largely be dependent
on how quickly the rain moves in and if and CAD conditions develop
across the NW. For now, have highs 10-15 degrees above average with
temps ranging from the low to mid 60s across the NW and low to mid
70s in the SE. Overnight lows will range from mid 50s NW to around
60 in the SE but will also be dependent on the timing and strength
of the warm front lifting across the region.

By early Wednesday morning, expect showers and storms to be slowly
moving across the region as the cold front approaches. While the
model consensus is the frontal passage should exit the region by
late afternoon/ early evening, kept some lingering low end PoPs for
the Coastal Plain region through late evening. As the front passes
expect gusty winds of 20-25 mph and dew points to quickly crash
Wednesday night into 20-30s. Wednesdays temperatures will be the
warmest of the forecast period with highs in the low 70s north to
upper 70s south. The cold front will pass overnight and cool high
pressure will filter in with overnight temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s with southern areas in the low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Thanksgiving day will be dry as high pressure continues to build in
from the Central Plains. A big temperature swing from Wednesday as
we go from 10-15 degrees above normal to 10 degrees below normal.
Northwest flow will continue to usher in cooler air with highs in
the upper 40s NW to low 50s SE. Winds could pick up in the afternoon
with gusts expected to be 15-20mph. A reinforcing dry cold front
will cross the region late Thursday bringing chilly temperatures.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20s NW to
near 30 in the SE. Wind chills could get into the teens
overnight/early morning Friday. Northwest flow will persist into
Friday as the Canadian high dives south into the TN valley bringing
another rush of chilly temperatures. Friday high temperatures will
struggle to get to 50 degrees, and apparent temperatures will be in
the mid 30s to low 40s.  Friday night radiational cooling will be at
its best and lows will range from low 20s to mid 20s across central
NC. Would not be surprised if a few of the cooler spots get down
into the upper teens.

High pressure will shift off to the Northeast Saturday bringing a
NE/E flow. Highs will begin to warm gradually through the weekend
with Saturday highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows generally still
be low freezing ranging from 28-32 degrees.

Another weather system moving across the MS valley is expected to
move into the Mid-Atlantic region as early as Sunday bringing
increased rain chances for early next week. Long range models are
far from agreement and will have to watch the system more closely as
it moves onshore into the Pacific NW region later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

TAF period: The majority of the next 24 hours should have VFR
conditions as high pressure moves offshore. However, in advance of a
warm front moving into the region tomorrow, MVFR ceilings will move
into INT/GSO after sunrise. While high ceilings will be present at
other sites by the morning, restrictions are not expected elsewhere
until after 18Z. A shower will also be possible at any site between
12Z-18Z, but confidence is not high enough to include in any TAF at
this time.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR ceilings and rain are expected at all sites
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon,
all sites should return to dry VFR weather, which will continue
through Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TG
NEAR TERM...TG
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TG/LH