507
FXUS62 KRAH 300722
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will linger this morning, then yield to a quasi-
stationary, wedge front that will develop over the central Carolinas
later today. A cold front will move across the region early tonight.
Another area of cold high pressure will build briefly overhead
Monday, then offshore ahead of coastal low pressure that will
develop and rapidly strengthen while tracking along and offshore the
South and Middle Atlantic coasts Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Sunday...

* Spotty light rain expected through the day ahead of a cold front.

* Large temperature gradient expected, as a wedge airmass keeps the
  NW Piedmont cooler.

As of 2am, a band of light rain is currently located just west of
the NC/TN border, ahead of a cold front. This rain looks to break up
over the mountains and reach central NC as a broken or thin band of
light rain this morning. This line should continue to move across
the region through the afternoon and looks to exit the area
completely after midnight with the passage of the cold front. QPF
amounts will be light, with less than 0.1 inches expected for most
of the region. The 00Z HREF is showing an area along the I-85
corridor from around the Triangle to the northeast with the
potential for up to around 0.15 inches.

A large temperature gradient is expected to develop during the day
today, as in-situ CAD should keep the NW Piedmont cool through the
day and into tonight. Highs look to range from mid/upper 40s in the
northwest to low/mid 60s in the southeast. Temperatures overnight
should drop into the upper 20s in the northwest and in the upper 30s
to around 40 in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 233 PM Saturday...

A strong sfc low will eject through the Ohio Valley on Sunday
sending a cold front across central NC later Sunday night. Ahead of
the front, a plume of deeper Gulf moisture will advect into the Deep
South/southeast. While the deepest moisture will remain over the
Gulf states, and the strongest upper forcing will remain to our
north, enough forcing will be present to induce a thin line of light
rain across our area Sunday afternoon and evening.  However, QPF
amounts will be negligible, primarily trace to a few hundreds
(highest amounts across the NC/VA border). Any rain should exit east
of the area by ~06Z Monday.  CAD will likely develop which should
create a rather steep temperature gradient with generally mid to
upper 40s highs across the northwest/northern Piedmont to near mid
60s in the southern Coastal Plain.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s (NW) to around 40 (SE).
Depending on the pace of the Sunday night cold front, there could be
a brief period of dense across the Piedmont as drier air filters in
aloft ahead of the front. Otherwise, the front should sweep low-
level moisture out of our area by 12Z Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

Monday will feature a brief lull in precipitation chances as a ~1030
mb surface high builds down the Eastern Seaboard from Upstate NY and
New England. Temperatures will only reach the mid-40s to lower-50s
(7-12 degrees below normal) and dew points will be in the 20s.
However, this surface high will quickly move east to the Canadian
Maritimes on Monday night as a potent shortwave tracking from the
Southern Plains to the Middle MS Valley spawns a surface low over
the northern Gulf Coast along a stalled front. This low will deepen
as it tracks NE through the eastern Carolinas on Tuesday and looks
to provide a soaking rain to our region from Monday night into
Tuesday, which will be welcome as most of central NC is in D1
(Moderate Drought) conditions. While the system will be fast moving,
it will contain plenty of anomalous moisture (PW values around 200%
of normal) and dynamics. There is still some uncertainty on the low
track which will affect total amounts, as the 12z ECMWF and CMC
trended slightly farther east and drier while the 12z GFS is still
on the wet side of guidance. The official forecast totals have
slightly decreased from yesterday to around an inch, but WPC still
has much of central NC outside of the NW Piedmont in a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday. Given how dry
it has been lately and the fact that much of our area will be on the
cool/stable side of the low, the main threat would be nuisance and
urban and poor drainage type flooding.

Also watching potential for a brief period of freezing rain at the
onset of precipitation over the NW Piedmont on Monday night. Based
on latest GFS and NAM forecast model soundings, a strong and
prominent warm layer aloft will preclude any chance of sleet or
snow, and it will be difficult to even get any freezing rain with
wet bulb temperatures near or just above freezing even at the onset.
Looking at the overall synoptic pattern, the high pressure system
will be centered to our NE by this point and the low according to
most guidance will be taking an unfavorable slightly inland track
over eastern NC. GFS and ECMWF ensemble members are similarly
unimpressed and have trended warmer with none now showing any
freezing rain at INT/GSO with the 12z runs. Monday night`s lows will
be in the mid-30s to lower-40s, and with widespread cloud cover and
WAA, temperatures will be near steady or even slowly rise. Tuesday`s
highs will range from lower-40s in the far northern Piedmont to
lower-to-mid-50s in the far SE. Rain chances will end from west to
east in the late afternoon and early evening as a cold front sweeps
through behind the departing low. Lows Tuesday night will be in the
upper-20s to mid-30s with clearing skies.

Dry weather will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday as chilly surface
high pressure builds in from the west. A second chilly high will
build down from the north on Friday before moving offshore. The next
wave will move across the Southeast US in the southwest flow aloft
sometime Friday/Saturday, potentially spawning a coastal low and
bringing additional precipitation. Details such as timing and amounts
are still uncertain at this time. Below-normal temperatures will
likely continue from Wednesday through Friday, with confidence
decreasing by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM Sunday...

For the rest of the night, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Starting around daybreak, MVFR ceilings look likely to move into the
Triad terminals (INT/GSO) ahead of a cold frontal passage. Shortly
after ceilings move in, LLWS also looks to develop in the Triad due
to a southwesterly 35-40 kt low level jet. LLWS also looks like it
could reach RDU, but looks less likely at RWI and especially FAY.
Additionally, a broken band of spotty light rain looks to move
across central NC ahead of the front. Patchy light rain should reach
the Triad starting in the morning and reach the eastern sites by
late afternoon. Sub-VFR visibilities don`t look likely with any rain
that may fall at a terminal, however it could briefly lower ceilings
to MVFR where not already in place. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the TAF period at RDU/FAY/RWI.

Outlook: After the cold front exits the region Sunday night, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the day Monday. Sub-VFR
conditions look to return Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as a
low pressure system tracks north up the coast, bringing widespread
rain and associated flight restrictions to central NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...LH