789
FXUS62 KRAH 170039
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
Issued by National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
840 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will continue to interact with a weak
frontal boundary as it sags south across the area this
afternoon and tonight. By Tuesday, the front will lift back north as
a warm front, with strong upper level ridging building westward
across the region through mid to late week, bringing hot and humid
conditions, and less chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...

For the near term update, adjusted pops per recent guidance
which looks reasonable to some of the CAMs coverage retriggering
this afternoon into evening. The 12z GSO sounding had a PWAT of
1.8 inches and given such ample moisture in place with upper
perturbations continuing to ride the SW to zonal flow aloft in
conjunction with a stall frontal boundary draped across the CWA,
convection looks to have the primary threat of highly efficient
precip producers and localized flooding similar yesterday. Have
maintained the current Flood Watch area-wide. Some hydrometeor
loading could aid downdrafts in development today too so wet
microburst strong winds are also possible. Previous discussion
follows...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

The stationary front that is currently near the Virginia-North Carolina
border will lift north during the day, but remain in close enough
proximity to allow for additional showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm north of
US-64 during the evening, but conditions will dry out overnight.
Considering the boundary will be moving away from the area,
rainfall rates should not be as intense as they were yesterday
and are forecast to be today, so the area is not under a threat
of excessive rainfall or severe weather. Highs will range from
the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Lows will only drop into the 70s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Wednesday should be a relative respite from widespread
precipitation, although at least a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms will continue to the west of I-95.
However, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase
Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening as a cold front
approaches the region. There is still some timing uncertainty as
to when the front will move - models are currently showing the
greatest amount of precipitation during the evening. If the
frontal passage is indeed during the overnight hours, this will
help to limit the severe weather potential. However, the Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted most of the area (except
southeastern counties) under a 15% probability on Thursday,
equivalent to a Slight Risk. The primary threat would be
damaging wind gusts. The front will linger across the North
Carolina coastline Friday and Saturday before dissipating,
keeping minimal chances for rain east of US-1 both afternoons.
With no synoptic forcing around, Sunday and Monday both appear
to be dry days.

The greater hazard during the extended forecast may not come
from the thunderstorms, but from the heat and humidity. On
Wednesday and Thursday, a good portion of the forecast area
should have heat index values between 100 and 105, which is just
below Heat Advisory criteria of 105. Both of those days will
have highs in most locations in the 90s. While the cold front
will drop high temperatures a few degrees on Friday, highs will
rise again for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with all locations
reaching into the 90s. In addition, with the exception of
northern locations Thursday and Friday nights, lows will only
fall into the 70s throughout this stretch of days. The compound
effects of prolonged heat and humidity with little relief
overnight could be problematic for some over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 840 PM Tuesday...

Of most immediate concern is the widespread clusters of
thunderstorms moving through central NC. They are moving away from
INT/GSO but will impact RDU/FAY/FWI from now through about 04z, with
a period of MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain and a few gusts as
high as 20-30 kts. After the storms pass, we will see several more
hours of light rain that will briefly drop vsbys to MVFR in fog
through 06z. Then, well likely see development of MVFR cigs 07z-09z
at the northern terminals (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI), lasting until 12z-13z,
with improvement to VFR expected by 15z at all sites as cigs rise to
VFR with breaks opening in the cloud deck. Only isolated showers and
storms are expected Tue afternoon, perhaps scattered near the VA
border, and what does form should be circumnavigable, so no storms
or accompanying cig/vsby restrictions are included for Tue afternoon
in the TAFs at this time. Outside of any storms, surface winds will
be light and variable, trending to 7-10 kts from the SW by late Tue
morning.

Looking beyond 00z Wed, there is a chance for areas of sub-VFR
conditions early Wed morning. While isolated storms may occur Wed
afternoon, the next best chance for scattered to numerous showers
and storms will be late Thu afternoon through Thu night, when some
storms could become strong. Otherwise, chances for afternoon/evening
storms will be small. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Baker
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield