


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
282 FXUS62 KRAH 142326 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 730 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build from the OH and TN Valleys to the southern Appalachians. A dry, backdoor cold front will move south across the region Wednesday evening, followed by Canadian high pressure that will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 110 PM Tuesday... Aloft, the closed mid-level low off the mid-Atlantic coast should continue to progress ewd over the Atlantic through tonight, with the sub-tropical ridge gradually building in from the west. Similarly at the surface, the closed low off the NC coast will continue ewd out over the Atlantic through tonight, with high pressure building in from the NW in its wake. Nly flow will prevail. Dry weather is expected to prevail. While the wrn Piedmont may remain sunny to mostly sunny today, cloud cover increase across the rest of the area through the early afternoon. Cloud cover should decrease as the low moves away from the area late this aft/evening, becoming mostly clear by tonight. Intermittent wind gusts into the teens are expected today, mainly in the east, tapering off after sunset. With the lingering cloud cover in the east today, expect a similar temperature gradient from W-E as yesterday, with highs ranging from mid/upper 70s west to mid/upper 60s east. Lows tonight should again be in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM Tuesday... Low pressure will be over eastern Canada Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending to the west through New England, Pennsylvania, and into the central Plains. The cold front will move southeast during the day, paralleling the I-85 corridor by sunset Wednesday. There will be very little moisture along the front, barely enough to produce any clouds, let alone any precipitation. With mostly sunny skies across the entire area, Wednesday`s high temperatures should be more uniform than today`s high temperatures, with all locations in the 70s. Temperatures will be slightly colder Wednesday night behind the front, although it will take until Thursday for a more noticeable change in temperatures. Wednesday night`s lows will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM Tuesday... * Next chance of rain will be Sunday into Monday associated with a cold frontal passage. * Below average temperatures will warm to above normal over the weekend, dropping back to near normal to start the work week. After the backdoor cold front passes through the region on Wednesday, high pressure will build over the region. This will allow dry and mostly sunny conditions to prevail Thursday through Saturday. Thursday should be the coldest day of the period, with highs expected in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s as good radiational cooling is expected overnight. Friday should have similar high temperatures as the high pressure system moves through the region, with lows increasing slightly into the 40s. By Saturday, maximum temperatures should be in the 70s regionwide, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s, perhaps the upper 40s in the coolest spots. A cold front is expected to approach and push through the region Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible with the fropa. The best forcing looks to be to our north and less than 500 J/kg of CAPE is expected, so stronger storms do not look to be likely. Additionally, ensemble means are generally showing less than 0.25 inch of rain from this system across the area, with the 90th percentiles also only showing around 0.5-0.75 inch. Sunday`s temperatures look to have highs in the mid-to-upper 70s before the front moves through, with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s. After the front moves through, high pressure should build back into the region, bringing cool and dry conditions to start the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM Tuesday... TAF period: Very high confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours as high pressure builds overhead. Outlook: The next chance of a few showers should be late Sunday or Monday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will prevail. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...RAH