546
FXUS62 KRAH 262331
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep through North Carolina this evening.
Cold high pressure will build in from the west and northwest through
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES...

* A secondary strong cold front will drive through the region this
  afternoon and early evening with gusty W-NWLY winds and CAA.

A lead (effective) front has moved east of the area, taking with it
the isolated and patchy light rain showers. In its wake, expect
filtered afternoon sunshine for the afternoon commute, with frequent
W-SWLY gusts of 15-20 kts through late afternoon.

A secondary, polar cold front will cross the area this evening,
bringing another increase in gusts and a shift to W-NWLY flow. A
brief period of higher gusts of 25 to 35 mph, will be possible
across the northwest and northern Piedmont counties early this
evening, before settling in the 15 to 20 mph range overnight.

Strong CAA behind the front will drive overnight lows down into the
mid 30s north to near 40 SE, with some lower 30s possible in the
colder locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

Dry, sharply colder, and breezy conditions will prevail on Thursday
and Friday.

Deep mid/upper troughing will extend from Canada into the Eastern US
on Thursday and Thursday night. Meanwhile the occluded surface low
will slowly drift east across southern/central Quebec, with a
secondary surface low drifting NE across the Canadian Maritimes and
far eastern Quebec. The pressure gradient between these features and
a ~1035 mb Canadian high drifting SE from the Northern Plains to the
Upper MS Valley will result in strong CAA and NW low-level flow over
central NC during this period. This will bring sharply cooler
temperatures with Thursday`s high temperatures 20-25 degrees below
today`s and 5-11 degrees below normal, in the upper-40s to mid-50s.
NW winds will gust to 15-20 mph at times during the day on Thursday
which will make it feel even colder. Dew points will also drop into
the mid-to-upper-teens in most places by the afternoon. Scattered to
broken mid and high clouds (especially over the NW) will dissipate
in the late afternoon, with skies turning clear on Thursday night.
Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-20s to 30, and light
NW winds will make it feel like the upper-teens to lower-20s in many
spots.

Friday and Friday night will be mostly clear and similar to the
previous day but even colder under the continued influence of CAA.
The SLP gradient will be even a bit stronger during the day as the
surface high approaches us from the Middle MS Valley and the low
continues slowly moving east over Quebec. So NW winds could gust up
to 20-25 mph. With actual high temperatures only ranging from lower-
40s in the far north to upper-40s in the far south (11-16 degrees
below normal), wind chills will only reach the mid-30s to lower-40s.
Dew points will only be in the lower-to-mid-teens (maybe even some
single digits in the NW Piedmont). With good radiational cooling
conditions as the surface high becomes centered over WV/VA/NC and
winds diminish, Friday night will feature the coldest temperatures
of the season so far as lows drop mostly into the lower-to-mid-20s.
Some upper-teens will even be possible in the coldest outlying spots.

Due to the very dry air in place, minimum RH values will mainly be
in the 25-30% range on both Thursday and Friday. The light rain that
fell last night and this morning did little to moisten fuels as
totals were mainly less than a quarter inch. However, after
coordination with the NCFS, it was determined that the combination
of marginal expected winds and cold temperatures precludes the need
for an IFD on either day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Saturday will be another day of cool temperatures, but overall quiet
as surface high pressure will shift over the Mid-Atlantic region
before shifting northeast. Temperatures will stay on the chilly
side, mainly in the low to mid 40s. One more night of overnight
temperatures dropping down in the mid/upper 20s with some warmer
spots only getting down to 30 degrees.

From Sunday through Wednesday morning, confidence is growing that we
will shift into a more active and wetter pattern. Multiple
disturbances will move across the eastern US, but there is still a
good amount of uncertainty in the exact timing and strength.

Generally expect the onset of precipitation to begin late Sunday
afternoon. Light rain is mainly expected Sunday afternoon and
evening. A lull overnight Sunday is possible with another push of
increased chances Monday. CAD conditions are expected to set up and
result in cooler temps Monday into Tuesday across the Piedmont.
Models begin to differ Monday in the location and timing of the low
pressure system across the Southeast. GFS shows a Coastal low
developing early Tuesday which will bring larger QPF amounts through
Wednesday. The ECMWF model is much slower and shows the low
developing across the Deep South and shifting over the Southeast and
into the Carolinas late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning. ECMWF
also has much cooler temperatures with a stronger CAD setup across
the Piedmont, which will affect high temperatures Monday and
especially Tuesday. What is most consistent with both models is the
signal that this  system will bring widespread rain across the
region, giving us a much-needed soaking. Right now, temperatures
look a little too warm for anything other than cold rain, however
depending on the timing of the precip early Sunday morning,  a few
quick flurries cant be ruled out in the NW Piedmont.

Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will largely depend on
how/where the system tracks. But generally expect the NW Piedmont to
be much cooler than the rest of the region due to CAD development.
Highs in the NW will range from the mid to upper 40s each day and
overnight lows in the mid 30s Sun/Mon then low 30s Tues/Wed night.
Elsewhere, temperatures will range from upper 50s to low 60s Sunday
then each day highs will gradual cool with highs in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are likely to hold across central NC for the next 24
hours. Of note, however, will be the shifting winds this evening as
a cold front moves toward the SE through central NC, causing surface
winds initially from the SW to veer to NW with frequent gusts up to
18-24 kts, lasting for several hours. The cold front has already
passed INT and is now moving through GSO, on pace to reach RDU by
02z and RWI/FAY by 03z or 04z. A few clouds with 5,000 ft AGL bases
are possible as the front moves through. Otherwise, apart from an
area of mid-level cigs with bases around 15,000 ft AGL expected to
pass over INT/GSO/RDU Thu between 12z and 20z, skies will be fair to
clear with no vsby restrictions. Surface winds behind the front will
be from the NW (perhaps briefly from the WNW or NNW late tonight)
through Thu. After the frequent gusts near and just after frontal
passage this evening, gusts will be more sporadic late tonight
through Thu at around 20 kts.

Looking beyond 00z Fri, VFR conditions are likely through at least
Sat. Starting Sat night, the chance for rain and sub-VFR cigs
increases as we trend to an unsettled weather pattern. Low level
wind shear may be possible Sat night. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Danco
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield