419
FXUS62 KRAH 141109
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
610 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through
Saturday. A mostly dry cold front will move through the area from
the north on Sunday, then settle to our south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM Friday...

* Continued dry today, with a few clouds mainly NE late today into
  tonight.

We`ll stay in a NW mid level flow today, between a deep low over the
Canadian Maritimes and ridging centered over NE Mexico, as surface
high pressure analyzed just to our W over the Mid South slowly
settles over GA and SC through tonight, with a weak lee trough over
W NC. A dry and fairly stable column remains in place, so apart from
a little orographically enhanced cirrus over the NE early this
morning, we should see plenty of sunshine through at least early-mid
afternoon. An area of mid clouds now noted on satellite imagery
extending from the western U.P. of MI into NE KY and associated with
a warm front aloft will shift E and SE, bringing additional mid
clouds starting this afternoon and continuing through much of
tonight, mostly over our NE half. But we`ll still see plenty of
insolation today, and with surface winds not nearly as blustery as
previous days and near-normal thicknesses, it should feel rather
pleasant with seasonable temps as highs will be generally from the
mid 60s to near 70. Expect fair skies tonight, except partly cloudy
NE, and low temps not far from normal, upper 30s to mid 40s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

* Dry, breezy, and warm.

The surface high will settle over FL Sat, placing us in a low level
WSW WAA pattern with a tightening MSLP gradient, and a continued
northwesterly mid and upper level flow. With the surface high
elongated westward over the N Gulf and E of the Bahamas, we`ll be
cut off from any low level moisture source, so despite steadily
rising dewpoints into the 40s Sat and low 50s Sat night, we should
stay dry, albeit with an increase in clouds as a mid level
perturbation tracks SE through the Mid Atlantic region late Sat into
Sat night. Low level thicknesses are projected to be around 25-30 m
above normal, supporting mild highs in the low-mid 70s, followed by
much above normal lows in the mid-upper 50s Sat night as we maintain
a southwesterly breeze overnight. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM Friday...

Sunday will start off unseasonably warm, with low temperatures
around 15-20 degrees above normal with a breezy west to west
southwesterly wind ahead of a dry cold front that is expected to
move across the region on Sunday, although the bulk of cooler air
won`t be felt until Sunday night. High temps on Sunday are expected
to range from the lower 70s north to the upper 70s south, with a
wind gust of 25 to 30 mph possible, with even a few locations seeing
some stronger gusts. Lows Sunday night are expected to be much
colder, with lows in the mid/upper 30s northwest to the lower to mid
40s south/southeast.

Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front on
Monday, with near normal temps and dry weather expected, with highs
generally in the lower to mid 60s. Dry weather will continue into
Monday night, but we should see increasing clouds as a quick moving
s/w disturbance is expected to approach from the west. The GFS is
still faster compared to the ECMWF with the quick moving s/w and
tracking it more to the south and across our area, which would give
us a better chance at seeing more precip/rain on Tuesday. The GFS
solution would likely yield a fairly sharp frontal zone developing
across the area with temps perhaps in the 40s north to near 70
south. For now will keep pops limited to the slight chance to low
end chance category, with high temps ranging from the lower 50s
northeast to the lower 70s southwest.

As the s/w disturbance shifts to the east of the area on Wednesday
we should see a return to dry conditions, although we may see some
lingering low level moisture, depending on how the system tracks.
The will result in high temps by mid/late week generally in the 50s
and 60s, with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 610 AM Friday...

VFR conditions will hold across central NC through the next 24
hours, with little more than sct to briefly bkn mid and high clouds
over the area. There is a chance for low level wind shear conditions
tonight after 04z as a ~30 kt W jet shifts over the area, mainly
affecting RDU/RWI, but uncertainty is too high to include in the
TAFs at this time. Surface winds will be under 10 kts from the NW or
N shifting to SW late today.

Looking beyond 12Z Sat, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all
sites through Monday, with a chance for sub-VFR conditions to
develop on Tue. LLWS is possible Sat night, and surface winds will
be gusty Sun, perhaps leading to mechanical turbulence. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Hartfield