923
FXUS62 KRAH 141737
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1237 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through
Saturday. A mostly dry cold front will move through the area from
the north on Sunday, then settle to our south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

* Warming trend begins.

Broad surface high pressure stretching from the Carolina Piedmont
into the northern Gulf states will continue to sink south and
consolidate near the FL/GA border by early Sat morning. Light and
variable winds will become predominantly southwesterly through the
afternoon and continue overnight. Warm advection ahead of an
elevated frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley will shift across the
Central Appalachians this evening and slide across northern NC and
eastern-central VA bringing some scattered to overcast cloud cover
to northeast NC, but otherwise, expect mostly clear skies especially
across the Piedmont.

Pockets of very light to calm winds overnight underneath a
strengthening inversion may result in isolated locations of
radiational cooling and allow temperatures to dip into upper 30s
with low to mid 40s expected elsewhere (2 to 8 degrees above
normal).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

* Well-above normal temperatures Sat and especially Sat night.

A vigorous shortwave pivoting across central Canada will spread 50
to 150m H5 height falls in 12 hours across the Great Lakes, northern
Mid-Atlantic with glancing influences as far south as central NC.
This very strong synoptic forcing along with a narrow PV anomaly
will result in a large area of mid-high clouds over the Ohio Valley
Saturday morning that will spill into the area through the morning
and becoming overcast across most of the area by mid-afternoon. This
should be relatively short-lived as the PV anomaly is expected to
pivot across the southern Mid-Atlantic by around 00z and should
shunt a large percentage of these high clouds off the coast. In its
wake, a favorable pattern for orographic cirrus will exist but its
areal coverage and opaqueness will be dependent on the available
moisture streaming across from the Ohio Valley.

Overall global models are struggling with the cloud cover forecast
and may be resulting in temperatures too warm through the afternoon
hours, but other than a few degrees difference in afternoon highs,
no sensible weather impacts are expected. Highs should still reach
into the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Overnight lows will likely be
very mild with overnight stirring and risk for period of scattered
to overcast orographic cirrus and only settling into the mid 50s (15
to 20 degrees above normal).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 PM Friday...

On Sunday morning, low pressure will be over New England with a cold
front extending southwest into Virginia and farther west back into
the southern Plains. The cold front will move through on Sunday, but
with minimal moisture, no precipitation is forecast. The winds will
be gusty, as high as 20-30 mph. Behind the cold front, high pressure
will briefly take over across the southeastern United States Monday,
but another wave is expected to move over Tennessee and Virginia
Tuesday. The best chance of rain still appears to be to our north,
but the ECMWF/EPS is trending wetter towards the GFS/GEFS solution,
which has consistently shown more precipitation over North Carolina.
Wednesday and Thursday should then be dry, with the GFS/ECMWF
diverging on the timing of the next system - the GFS is faster than
the ECMWF with low pressure moving to the east.

There is high confidence that Sunday will be the warmest day out of
the next seven, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the upper
70s. Lows on Sunday night will be 15-20 degrees colder than the
night before as a result of the cold front, dropping anywhere from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Next week, highs should be in the upper
50s and 60s, while lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Prevailing VFR is expected through the TAF period. Light south to
southwest winds at the surface tonight. LLWS is expected at RDU and
RWI as a very shallow but sharp and strong inversion develops around
04z with veering winds and 35-40kts of flow. This will likely be
short lived as the enhanced flow shifts east rather quickly ceasing
the LLWS threat after 10-11z.

Outlook: Another round of strong winds above a weaker inversion will
result in LLWS (RDU/FAY/RWI) Sat night with nearly westerly winds of
40-50kts at 2,000 ft and light southwest winds at the surface.
Strong surface wind gusts of 25 to 30kts are expected ahead of, and
especially behind, a dry cold frontal passage during the day on Sun.
Mostly clear skies on Sun should result in excellent mechanical
mixing and result in light to moderate low-level turbulence and may
result in wind gusts as high as 35 kts. Some isolated showers may be
possible immediately along the cold front Sun, but confidence is low
at this time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...AS