282
FXUS62 KRAH 181927
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
227 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the southern Middle Atlantic coast will drift
offshore ahead of an area of low pressure that will track across the
Virginias and offshore through early Wednesday. A trailing cold
front will settle south across NC later Wednesday through Wednesday
evening. High pressure will follow and ridge south across the Middle
Atlantic through Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

A mid/upr-level cyclone over ern IA will deamplify as it progresses
generally ewd to the Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Wed.

At the surface, a frontal zone over nrn and nern NC at 19Z, and
which separated upr 60s to around 70 F over srn NC from 30s and 40s
F across the Virginias, will retreat nwd into srn VA this evening,
ahead of a weak frontal wave that will track across and offshore VA
tonight.

The aforementioned shortwave trough and surface frontal wave will be
accompanied by a preceding zone of warm, moist air advection that
will weaken as it progresses east of the Appalachians tonight but
which will maintain a weakening band of rain/showers across
primarily the nrn half of cntl NC from approximately midnight
through sunrise. Associated rainfall amounts will be spotty and
light at generally a tenth of an inch or less, before the rain moves
ewd and offshore Wed morning. A combination of light swly surface
winds in the warm sector and ahead of the frontal wave, and multi-
layered ceilings that will be most extensive over nrn NC, will favor
unseasonably mild temperatures mostly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

* Above normal temperatures favored with good RH recovery

A mid-level shortwave over eastern MD will exit off the coast Wed
afternoon. Behind it, shortwave ridging will build east through much
of Thu. Another system tracking into the Central Plains will send
some energy into the area Thu night to early Fri. At the surface, a
surface low over southeastern VA Wed will move offshore during the
day. A backdoor cold front will edge south of the area Wed night as
1026 mb high pressure noses down from the NE. The front will then
shift back north Thu/Thu night in concert with a warm front lifting
into the TN valley region. Compared to the past several days, there
will be good RH recovery as afternoon RH levels hover in the 40s and
50s, limiting any fire danger.

Ahead of the backdoor front Wed, a prefrontal trough will bring W to
NW surface flow. Highs should be some 8 to 14 degrees above normal
in the upper 60s NE to low/mid 70s in the central and south. As the
front moves south, a somewhat cooler airmass should favor lows in
the upper 30s to low 40s NE to mid 40s SW.

The airmass is marginally cooler Thu as we are on the cooler side of
the boundary for part of the day. But we should manage to be above
normal regardless in the low to mid 60s NE to upper 60s SW. There
could be a few spotty light rain or sprinkles in the NW Thu night to
early Fri in advance of the Fri system, but most areas will just see
increasing high clouds with lows mild in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

* Best chance of rain Friday night through Saturday. Generally less
  than 0.25 inches of rain is expected.

* Above average temperatures through the long term period, with much
  above average on Friday into Saturday afternoon.

Friday, a weak warm front looks to move across the region, bringing
warm southerly flow and slightly breezy conditions up to around 15
kts. With the front, there will also be a chance of some very light
spotty rain from enhanced isentropic lift and warm advection.
Additionally, temperatures will increase much above average. Highs
on Friday should generally be in the 70s, with lows dipping into the
50s. This is about 10-20 degrees above average.

The better chance for rain returns Friday night through Saturday as
a low pressure system appears to move to our north, with the
trailing cold front moving through central NC. Uncertainty still
remains in the timing of the rain as there is still disagreement in
the track of the low, however it appears that there could be
multiple rounds of light rain starting Friday night through Saturday
night, with the best chances Saturday afternoon and evening.
Ensemble guidance is showing generally less than 0.25 inches of rain
across the area, with the European ensemble showing a slightly
wetter solution than the GEFS, but still below 0.3 inches. High
temperatures on Saturday look to remain much above normal before the
front moves through, with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. After
the low pressure system moves out of the region, high pressure will
build back in Sunday through Tuesday. This will allow high
temperatures to stay generally in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday,
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Continued influence of dry high pressure will maintain VFR
conditions through at least early tonight, and probably beyond
through the TAF period. The exception to VFR will be a weakening
band of rain/showers, from VFR ceilings, which may briefly restrict
visibility to 5-6 SM as it overspreads mainly the nrn half of NC
overnight, before dissipating. Additionally, the development of a 40-
45 kt, swly low-level jet will increase the likelihood of low-level
wind shear overnight-Wed morning.

Outlook: There will be a chance of IFR to MVFR ceilings Thu morning
and again Fri morning, followed by a chance of showers and flight
restrictions late Friday through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Increased Fire Danger remains through 6 PM for the western Piedmont
for continued anomalously dry air and fuels and a swly wind that
will briefly strengthen to between 10-20 mph, mainly in occasional
gusts, mid to late-afternoon.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...ACK
LONG TERM...LBH
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS