Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251854
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure should allow for a mostly dry forecast to continue
through the weekend. A cold front will bring some much needed rain
Monday and Tuesday, and should remain just south of the region
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

Water vapor satellite showed a mid-level ridge centered across the
lower MS valley, a mid-level trough off the New England coast and
dry NW flow across central NC. The 12Z GSO sounding showed a 5 deg F
inversion around 700 mb, with a very dry layer above the inversion,
fairly similar to the sounding yesterday. Subsidence aloft is
preventing storms from developing, however a few sprinkles are
possible across the Triad through the remainder of the afternoon.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, with a lower chance of
fog. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

The mid-level ridge to our west will remain fairly in place on
Sunday, however the surface high just off the VA coast will move
further east and strengthen southerly surface flow across the region
throughout the afternoon. Increasing moisture and a weakening
inversion aloft could allow a greater coverage of showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the Triad in the afternoon, however high-
res models keep most areas dry at this time. Highs will increase
slightly compared to today, with areas ranging from the low 90s N to
mid-90s S. Cloud cover will increase from west to east late Sunday
night as a cold front approaches the region. Showers will develop
across the Triad by late Sunday night, with other areas remaining
dry until later in the day. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM Saturday...

First half of the upcoming week presents a decent but low hazard
forecast challenge. A shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and
OH Valley will usher a cold front east across the mountains on
Monday. Early morning showers in the NW Piedmont -some left over
from the previous day convection along the front - should increase
to numerous showers and storms by midday as the front slowly
progresses east. Guidance suggests fairly weak instability owing to
weak mid-level lapse rates and slow dewpoint recovery, with some
additional uncertainty in heating given potential for debris and
frontal cloudiness.  That said, PW is forecast to exceed 2.5 inches
invof the front, so the front should be able to trigger decent
coverage despite limited upper forcing (some weak lower of heights
aloft) and weak instability.  Highs should mostly be in the 80s with
some 90s across the southern coastal plain.

The front and ongoing showers and storms are progged to sink slowly
toward the SC border Monday night and then stall through Tuesday as
an are of high pressure quickly build east across the Mid-Atlantic
states. The upper level flow will continue to become more cyclonic
with strengthening mid/upper level flow across the Mid-Atlantic
States.  Weak southerly low-level flow across the front will
maintain the scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms, with
instability and storms mostly confined to southern areas amidst
widespread clouds, enerly surface winds, and temps only in the 70s
to low 80s.

Another shortwave is forecast to cross the OH Valley on Wednesday
but with apparently little impact on the local weather as the front
slowly weakens and the return of better instability holds off until
later int he week.  As such, expect a general return to summertime
diurnal temperatures and near to slightly above normal temperatures
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

TAF period: Some -SHRA are developing near the Triad this afternoon.
Although VFR conditions are mainly expected, there is a small chance
of MVFR ceilings or VIS at KGSO/KINT through this afternoon. Dry
conditions are expected tonight, with patchy fog near KRWI early Sun
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Outlook: A very small chance of a shower/storm will return to
INT/GSO Sunday afternoon, but all other sites will remain dry. A
cold front will bring showers/iso storms to INT/GSO Monday
afternoon, while the chance for showers/storms will spread across
the remaining terminals and remain in the forecast through Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...JJT
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Green/JJT


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