Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 231914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
312 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move northward over eastern North
Carolina today, then into VA tonight. High pressure will return
later Sunday into early next week.


As of 312 PM Saturday...

...Flooding Threat will linger into the early evening before

...Winds continue to diminish...

Ophelia`s circulation center is currently moving north through
Halifax Co. and will soon enter southeastern Virginia this evening,
and then move over the Delmarva Peninsula tonight into Sunday.

One last rain band, which currently arcs/extends from Henderson to
Lillington will pivot northward through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. This band is currently producing rainfall
rates between 0.50-0.75"/hr, with one to two inches of additional
rain is expected across this area.

Now that we are on the back side of the circulation center, wind
gusts have diminished across the remainder of the forecast area, now
mostly in the 20-25 mph range. Thus, will likely be able to cancel
the Tropical Storm Warning at the 5pm Advisory issuance.

Due to the stable air in place and a more eastward track, the
tornado threat has shifted east, away from the area.

Tonight: The far northern Piedmont counties have  some lingering
moderate rain in the early evening before tapering off to very light
rain/drizzle. Winds will continue to diminish and by the predawn
hours, gustiness should cease across all but the far NE zones. Lows
tonight 55 to 60.


As of 255 PM Saturday...

What is left of Tropical Storm Ophelia should be near Washington DC
by sunrise Sunday morning and will continue to move northeast. All
precipitation should be well north of the forecast area, although
mostly cloudy skies will prevail for much of the day with clearing
from southwest to northeast. The high temperatures will be much
different from today`s values, with near normal numbers ranging from
the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Lows should be similar to tonight`s
values, in the upper 50s and lower 60s.


As of 255 PM Saturday...

As the remnants of Ophelia move offshore the mid-Atlantic states,
strong high pressure will build south from Quebec along the Atlantic
coastline. Although the core of the high pressure will remain over
Canada, cold air damming will begin to set up over the Carolinas by
Tuesday and remain in place through much of the rest of the forecast
period. An upper level low will be over the northern Plains Sunday
morning and remain nearly stationary through Tuesday morning, then
drift to the southeast as it weakens. After that, an omega block
will develop for late week, with high pressure building across the
central United States at upper levels while upper lows develop over
the Pacific Northwest and the Canadian Maritimes. This should keep
some low-end chances for rain in the forecast, but what may be more
noticeable are cooler temperatures. Monday will be the warmest day
of the forecast, with temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s, but
highs should range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s through the
rest of the forecast. Lows will generally be in the 50s.


As of 145 PM Saturday...

The center of Tropical Storm Ophelia is within an hour or two of
crossing into SE Virginia and will begin the slow improvement of
adverse aviation conditions into Sun morning. Widespread MVFR/IFR
cigs, strong N to NW winds, LLWS, and periods of of IFR vsby will
remain a threat through the afternoon hours. As TS Ophelia shifts
away from the area this evening, surface winds will back towards Wly
and gusts will slowly subside from 00z through 06z. Cigs will likely
remain around 800-1500 feet from NE to SW through most of the night
and into Sun morning. Their may be a brief period of SCT MVFR cigs
at GSO/INT/FAY around daybreak, but should quickly fill back in as
the boundary layer mixes and cumulus develop. Although unlikely, any
clearing that can occur overnight at INT/GSO/FAY may lead a period
of lower cigs around 400-900 feet with surface stirring preventing
fog development. Sun morning, widespread cumulus around 1500-3500
feet will linger across the area through the 18z TAF window.

Looking beyond 18z Sunday, VFR conditions will likely return to all
terminals Sun evening from SW to NE as mixing lifts afternoon
cumulus above MVFR. High pressure will build into the area Tues
with multi-layered cloudiness bringing the chance for sub-VFR
stratus and/or early morning fog into Thurs.


Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-025>028-
Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ011-027-028-043-078.



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