Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 020807
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
407 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will dive southeastward across the
southern middle Atlantic this morning. Otherwise, Canadian high
pressure just offshore the NC coast this morning will drift toward
Bermuda through tonight. Hot and humid southwesterly flow will be
directed around the high and across the Southeast for the rest of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Tuesday...

A shortwave trough digging across OH and the cntl Appalachians this
morning will cross the srn middle Atlantic and move offshore through
15-18Z. A preceding area of mid level WAA/lift and cloudiness has
already overspread cntl NC this morning; and those clouds are
expected to further thicken to cloudy or mostly so and be
accompanied by virga as ascent maximizes over cntl NC ahead of
foregoing shortwave trough. Those clouds will depart and be replaced
by generally scattered diurnal cumulus based between 4-6 thousand ft
this afternoon, with associated partly to mostly sunny conditions
after midday.

At the surface, 1023 mb, Canadian high pressure centered a few
hundred miles off the NC coast at 08Z will drift toward Bermuda
through tonight, while a warm front analyzed from MI sewd across the
OH Valley will retreat newd across the cntl Appalachians and middle
Atlantic through this evening. Within the growing warm sector, an
Appalachian-lee trough will develop and strengthen over the srn
middle Atlantic Foothills and wrn Piedmont amidst strengthening swly
flow and breezy and warm, moist air advection that will otherwise
encompass cntl NC today.

In the regime described above, high temperatures will warm to near
average values in the lwr to middle 80s in cntl NC this afternoon.
While weak, diurnal destabilization will occur with generally 500
J/kg of MLCAPE developing by afternoon across the NC Foothills and
wrn Piedmont, point forecast soundings depict a lingering, weakened
subsidence inversion that was pronounced on 00Z/2nd-observed
proximity RAOBs. So while there is a non-zero chance that cap could
be breached by diurnal cumulus with associated shower development
this afternoon primarily near and nw of the NC Piedmont, that
probability is below mentionable/15% in the public forecast.

Continued swly flow and mixing overnight will favor much milder low
temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

A summer-like pattern of sub-tropical surface high pressure centered
near Bermuda and an Appalachian lee trough will favor hot and humid
conditions with scattered convection around the wrn periphery of the
sub-tropical ridge - in the mountains and perhaps also on a more
isolated basis within the lee trough. As such, there will be a
slight chance of a shower or storm over the nw NC Piedmont Wed
afternoon and evening, with temperatures in the upr 80s to lower
90s, and upr 60s to around 70 degrees, for highs and lows,
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

The overall weather pattern through Saturday will remain fairly
persistent with an upper trough sitting over the eastern US as a
high builds out west. At the surface, a lee trough will persist with
southerly flow into the area. Temperatures will also be fairly
persistent, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Expect the usual diurnal weather pattern of
generally dry weather overnight with showers/storms during the
aft/eve. A shortwave swinging through the upper trough will help
shift it eastward through the region on Sunday while at the surface
a backdoor cold front is expected to push into the area on Sunday
with cool high pressure taking over in its wake. There is still some
uncertainty with respect to how far south and for how long the front
will make it, which could impact temperatures and chances for
convection early next week. Otherwise, generally expect temperatures
to decrease to near normal for Sunday and Monday.

The remnants of Pacific tropical system Amanda, now Tropical
Depression Three, could become a named Atlantic storm as it emerges
over the Bay of Campeche this week. While it would strengthen as it
migrates north over the Gulf late in the week or into the weekend,
no impacts are expected for the Carolinas. It will likely move
inland over TX/LA early next week while the sub-tropical ridge
extends over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tuesday...

A mid and upr level disturbance will dive sewd across the srn middle
Atlantic this morning. A preceding band of 9-15 thousand ft, VFR
ceilings and virga will consequently overspread cntl NC during the
next several hours. That cloudiness will thin and move offshore with
the passage of the parent disturbance aloft by this afternoon, at
which time generally scattered diurnal cumulus based between 4-6
thousand ft will have developed, a few of which may deepen into
showers near and northwest of INT and GSO around sunset. It will
otherwise become breezy today, with swly winds of 10-15 kts and
gusts of 15-20 kts, before winds diminish after sunset. The
development of a 35-40 kt low level jet across NC and VA tonight
will favor a chance of low level wind shear conditions toward the
end of the 06Z TAF period, particularly from RWI to ORF.

Outlook: Hot and humid swly flow will result in a chance of mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms and late night-early
morning stratus and fog late week through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS



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