Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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280
FXUS62 KRAH 250043
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
825 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move east cross North Carolina late Monday into
Monday night, drawing a backdoor cold front southward through the
region and ushering in colder temperatures for mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 835 PM Sunday...

An area of mid and high clouds currently moving across the area
coupled with a southerly to southwesterly breeze has allowed temps
to remain in the lower to mid 60s as of 8 PM this evening. This area
of cloud cover is expected to shift to the east late this
evening/early Monday morning, though additional mid and high clouds
will likely move into the area shortly thereafter. In addition we
may see a brief period of low stratus develop across western
portions of the area by around daybreak as low level moisture
increases via southerly flow around high pressure offshore, though
dry conditions area expected to hold overnight. Low temps are
generally expected to be in the  upper 40s to lower 50s, with a few
mid 40s possible if we clear off for long enough overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...

A cloudy Monday, with a chance of showers - then showers becoming
likely in the afternoon.

The mid/upper level shortwave trough moving ESE through the Tennessee
Valley late tonight will approach the region late Monday. The
associated surface wave and cold front will be relatively slow
reaching the region late Monday, should end up crossing central NC
Monday night. It is late Monday and Monday night when the best lift
and moisture convergence arrive. Although central NC will be in the
warm sector preceding the arrival of the front, only marginal
MLCapes are forecast for general thunderstorm activity. We currently
have "isolated" or "slight chance" of thunderstorms in the zone
forecasts to go along with the showers.

Sensible weather should include breezy SW winds at 15-20 mph and
highs in the 70s, except 65-69 NW (where the showers start earlier).
There may be some light sprinkles or areas of light showers with
very low QPF during the morning, then the main band of showers
should arrive mid to late afternoon in the NW, and late afternoon
into the evening elsewhere.

After the wave of low pressure moves east of the region, drag the
cold front through from the north Monday evening. As this occurs,
models suggest periods of light rain overnight, then the rain
gradually will taper to some drizzle overnight. CAA will drop lows
in the 40s except 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

A risk of more frost and potentially freezing overnight temperatures
mid-week. Then spring-like temperatures arrive Fri. through next
weekend.

Any lingering light rain/drizzle along with the low stratus should
clear gradually on Tuesday. CAA from the cold high pressure to the
north will bring much colder weather by Tuesday night. Highs should
only be in the 50s, with some lower 60s SE.

Tuesday night... Much colder weather will arrive, but the winds
may stay up enough to keep a widespread frost or freeze in the
critical SE zones (where the Frost/Freezing program - growing
season for the spring is underway). Low confidence in the exact
lows for Tuesday night, especially in the SE where the breezes
may linger. Higher confidence in the NW, where less pressure gradient
should lead to a quicker reduction of wind. For now, lows in the
upper 20s and lower 30s NW-N ranging to the mid 30s SE will be
forecast.

Wednesday through Thursday night... Both Wednesday night and
Thursday night should be cold with frost/freeze potential,
especially in the climatologically favored areas west of I-95.
The only processes that may keep it just above a killing freeze/frost
in the SE are associated with the potential of a low pressure off the
SE coast of SC/GA. If this low is closer to SE NC, then some
cloudiness/increased breezes may keep temperatures just above
critical levels. Elsewhere, the cold high pressure over
the NE states will extend into western NC. Several cold
nights with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s appear likely.
Highs Thursday should be only in the upper 50s north to mid 60s
SE.

Springtime warmth really arrives Friday into next weekend
as strong ridging develops over the SE states. Highs will
rebound into the 70s Friday and into the 70s to some lower 80s
possible over the Sandhills Saturday. Lows will come up to between
45 and 55, as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are generally expected to
continue this evening into Monday morning. However, moisture return
around offshore high pressure may lead to a brief period of some low
stratus at KGSO/KINT near daybreak at around 1 kft or so. Otherwise,
periods of generally mid and high cloud will traverse the area this
evening into Monday morning.

An area of low pressure will approach the area from the west on
Monday with showers and a few isolated storms possible during the
afternoon, with sub-VFR conditions possible with any showers/storms.
As the system approaches, southwesterly winds will increase during
the late morning into the afternoon, with perhaps a few gusts of up
to 20 to 25 mph.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers/isolated storms are expected
Monday evening, with associated sub-VFR conditions possible.
IFR/LIFR conditions are possible Mon night as the low passes through
and drags a cold front SE through the area, producing chilly winds
from the NE into Tue morning. VFR conditions will return Tue
afternoon, lasting through mid to late week as high pressure builds
in from the N.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/Badgett
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett/BSD
AVIATION...BSD/Badgett



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