Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 070530
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1230 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly high pressure will extend across the central Appalachians and
southern mid Atlantic through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 905 PM Saturday...

Only very minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. As expected, a
band of high clouds associated with weak mid-upper DPVA is
traversing the region, in conjunction with a weak surface backdoor
front, while a subtle upper jet streak over VA responsible for some
orographic enhancement largely confined to our N over the last
couple of hours. These clouds have kept the diurnal temp drop muted
over the NW Piedmont thus far, with readings still in the mid 40s at
Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Lexington, while some typically
colder spots like Henderson and Roxboro are already in the lower
30s. Once these clouds clear out to our E, still expect temps to
drop to lows of 24 (rural areas) to 30 (urban areas), with surface
CAA increasing a bit overnight as the cold surface high over Lk
Superior drifts SSE and builds into our area. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 230 PM: Sheared remnants of the once potent
southern stream shortwave trough (when it was over the southern
Rockies and Southern Plains) will move off the SE US/FL coast
through the evening. The broken/overcast veil of mid and high clouds
associated with the system has already started to thin out/diminish
across northern portions of the forecast area, and we`ll see this
trend continue across central and southern portions through the
afternoon.

A northern stream shortwave diving down the the back-side of the
long wave trough in place across the Eastern Seaboard will move the
region overnight. Associated forcing will bring some additional,
though much more abbreviated/transient mid/high clouds across the
area overnight. More importantly, the northern stream trough passage
will result in the reinforcement of cold air via renewed sfc
pressure rises tonight and Sunday as the strengthening parent high
continues to build east into the region. Lows 25 to 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

The deep upper trough in place across the Eastern Seaboard will move
offshore late in the day. At the surface, an expansive +1030mb
Canadian surface high extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf
coast, will continue to build slowly east into the region. Despite
very vigorous northern stream energy diving south through the area,
very dry air will preclude much in the way of clouds. Thus, expect
sunny/clear conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue,
averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early March. Afternoon
highs ranging from  upper 40s NE to mid 50s south. Lows in the mid
to upper 20s, with some the typically colder spots potentially
getting down into the lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

The extended forecast will remain extremely quiet. As high pressure
moves offshore, winds will shift from the north to the southwest and
allow for increasing temperatures through the week. After near
normal temperatures Monday, expect a steady warming trend Tuesday
through Friday with widespread 70s by Friday. Cloud cover will begin
to increase by Saturday, but the GFS keeps the next front well north
of the region while the ECMWF shows a dry frontal passage Saturday,
so the dry forecast will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence that VFR conditions will persist
through the TAF period.

Looking ahead: VFR conditions should prevail through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA/Green
AVIATION...Badgett


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