Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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469
FXUS62 KRAH 181826
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
226 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A Canadian high pressure will build down the Eastern Seaboard
today and settle over the region from Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

Central NC is sandwich between a building ridge over the central
US and Hurricane Humberto near Bermuda, with Canadian high pressure
ridging down the eastern seaboard.  Clouds banked up against the
mountains this morning continues to thin and scatter over the
western Piedmont, and some stratocu has moved over the coastal
plain.  Expect all of this to abate this evening and yield to mostly
clear skies overnight, with perhaps some thin high clouds in
northwest flow aloft or lingering thin boundary layer moisture in
the coastal plain.  Lows in the low to mid 50s, with some upper 40s
possible in the coolest areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will continue to build down the eastern seaboard on
Thursday and settle over NC by Thursday night.  This will result in
mostly clear skies and cooler than normal highs and lows.  1000-
850mb thicknesses in the 1355-1365m range suggest highs in the mid
70s and lows in the lower 50s, with climatology supporting mid and
upper 40s in rural areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will continue to extend across NC through the
weekend as mid level ridging builds overhead, and continued low PW
(under 1") with a stable column will result in dry weather. After
one last day of well below normal temps Fri, the high center will
push offshore Sat, and the resulting moderation in air mass will
induce the rise in high temps back to above normal values, although
morning lows will stay somewhat cool, in the 50s.

Dry weather appears likely to hold Mon through Wed despite warm air
advection ahead of an approaching cold front which crosses NC NW to
SE on Tue, accompanying a mid level shortwave trough. Mid and high
clouds are likely, especially north, but the preceding low level
flow will have enough of a westerly component to minimize low level
moistening, and frontal convergence is lacking. The front provides
more of a glancing blow as the cooler air mass to our N quickly
exits off the Northeast coast, resulting in just minor cooling on
Wed. Expect temps through the period to be well above normal, with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions likely through the forecast period.  Earlier cloud
cover 5-7k ft over western NC continues to thin and scatter this
afternoon but will linger at KGSO and KINT before all sites go SKC
this evening.  Some guidance suggests another surge of low level
moisture with east-northeasterly flow this evening and the potential
for some scattered clouds around 2k ft after 09z, but confidence in
this is low and expect conditions will be remain VFR.  Otherwise a
light NE will continue through Thursday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will dominate through the weekend under high
pressure.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...BLS



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