034
FXUS62 KRAH 061138
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the weekend, as weak high
pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic region. An
Arctic cold front will move southeastward through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Saturday...

* Winter Weather Advisory for our NW continues until 8 AM this
  morning for the potential for isolated slippery spots on roads.

* Areas of fog will persist until mid to late morning.

* Continued chilly today.

The surface frontal zone has settled to our S and SE, with low
pressure having pushed well offshore E of NC, leaving weak high
pressure from NC up through the Mid Atlantic and widespread low
clouds with patchy fog. Another weak high analyzed over the lower
Miss Valley will slide E over the Southeast later today, and the
overall result will be continued neutral to stable low levels and
weak low level flow over our area. Farther aloft, we`ll stay in a
fast and flat WSW mid level flow pattern today, noted well on GOES
layer WV imagery with a plume of moisture from TX through NC,
keeping a stream of mid and high clouds overhead through the day.
The poor insolation from these high clouds and the presence of low
level stability and weak flow (to inhibit mixing, both vertically
and horizontally) will help hold in the low clouds for quite a while
today, at least through early to mid afternoon before some breaks of
milky sunshine appear. Models do agree that the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak will pass over NC late today and
bring a brief uptick in upper divergence, so we could see the back
edge of light rain nudge slightly northward this afternoon. But
otherwise the moisture and lift aren`t sufficient today for anything
more than patchy light rain with low amounts in our extreme SE,
southeast of a line from Wadesboro to Goldsboro, mainly this
afternoon. Thicknesses 10-15 m below normal and limited sunshine
support highs only in the mid 40s to near 50. Expect lows tonight in
the mid 20s to low 30s, with partly cloudy skies, setting the stage
for a good chance of another round of locally dense fog late. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Saturday...

* Fair to partly cloudy and dry through at least the evening.

* Not as chilly as today, but still a bit below normal.

* Clouds increase overnight with a little light precip spreading in
  from the WSW.

We`ll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow for much of Sun,
while at the surface, weak high pressure over NC and the Mid
Atlantic holds in place before drifting offshore late. The mid and
upper levels will briefing dry out Sun behind the weak mid level
perturbation and upper jet streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic
coast, so once the morning fog burns off by mid morning or so, we
should see a period of partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in
the upper 40s to mid 50s, still slightly below normal. Our attention
then turns to a shortwave trough shifting through the Mid Miss
Valley into TN overnight, propelled in part by energy digging in
from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with an
Arctic cold front that will move into the Ohio Valley and Mid South
overnight. We`ll again see another (weaker) upper jet entrance
region shift overhead with weak mid level DPVA, but there`s little
opportunity for moisture return into our area, leaving us with a
modest uptick in PW overnight, and any forcing mechanisms will need
to work on what little moisture is attending the system. Will carry
slight chances for very light rain late Sun night. Lows should be a
few degrees milder with the increase in clouds, in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM Saturday...

* Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with or
  briefly changing to snow especially over the Piedmont late before
  ending. Uncertainty is high, but precip amounts should be low and
  coverage limited, suggesting in little to no accumulation, but
  stay tuned.

* Much colder Mon night through Tue night, then moderating Wed
  through Fri, with just low chances for patchy light rain Thu/Fri.

Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should
continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough
approaches, but we may be lacking a lot of deep moisture, as our PW
values will remain near or below normal with a lack of a source of
decent moisture transport into the area in the low levels. But we
should have sufficient lift to squeeze out a little precip at the
ground, and a plurality of ensemble members do generate some light
precip across the area Mon, mainly from just before dawn until near
or soon after midnight Mon night. The Arctic front is expected to
push SSE through central NC in the mid to late afternoon, so for
much of this precip event, the coldest air will be chasing the
better moisture. And the coldest air may be delayed even further by
the higher terrain, bringing more uncertainty as to the precip type.
The projected thermal pattern does support this being mostly a
situation of light rain chances early, becoming mixed with a briefly
changing to mostly light snow before ending late in the day and in
the evening, but again the coverage and amounts look quite limited.
Will maintain just chance pops, near climatology. Expect highs Mon
in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with readings falling late, and cold
lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s. These cold temps alone
will be problematic, but additionally, if we get a period of
blustery winds Mon evening/night post-front, we could see wind
chills drop from the teens into the single digits for early Tue
morning. And if we`re absent such winds, we would have less drying
of any lingering moist ground, resulting in a possible flash freeze
Tue morning leading to black ice concerns. Check back with later
forecasts on these possible threats.

The rest of the week appears rather tranquil, continued chilly Tue
but with temperatures trending back closer to normal as the air mass
moderates with fair to partly cloudy skies. Models suggest a renewed
digging of longwave troughing over the central and eastern CONUS by
Fri, accompanied by an incoming cold front, but model spread in
timing and trough amplitude remains high, so have just included
spotting slight chance pops late in the week. After chilly highs in
the 40s Tue, temps should return closer to normal for Wed/Thu,
perhaps lasting into Fri depending on the frontal timing. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM SATURDAY...

Most sites are reporting LIFR with 200-330 ft ceilings this morning,
though some patchy fog is also observed.  These low clouds will
linger this morning and likely be slow to lift or erode by this
afternoon.  Models suggest any scattering to MVFR or VFR will be
close to 18Z or later, and the current TAFs will indicate the slower
trend toward MVFR or VFR.  The improvements in aviation conditions
will be brief, however, as dense fog looks likely tonight with no
airmass change and less high clouds than this morning. The fog could
develop as early as 04-05Z and persist through the entire night.

Outlook:  A clipper system will induce light rain/snow mix that may
change to light snow, especially across northern areas Monday
afternoon. VFR conditions will then persist through much of early to
middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST today for NCZ007>009-
021>025.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...BLS