795
FXUS62 KRAH 232318
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
715 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* A very limited chance of a shower or storm across southeastern
  Sampson and Wayne counties this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

1) The cold front that moved across central NC has stalled across
the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to move into the
region from the northwest but lingering moisture near the front
could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along the
Coastal Plain.

2) There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor.

3) Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on Wednesday,
maximized on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... The cold front that moved across central NC has
stalled across the eastern Coastal Plain. Drier air will continue to
move into the region from the northwest but lingering moisture near
the front could lead to a stray shower or storm this afternoon along
the Coastal Plain.

The latest surface analysis shows the slow moving cold front now
located across the eastern Coastal Plain with northwest winds across
all of the area including at Fayetteville, Goldsboro and Clinton.
Drier air has been filtering into the region thanks to a northwest
or westerly flow in the low levels. The RAOB at KGSO this morning
noted a PW of only 0.94 inches which is around the 18th percentile.
The drier air combined with good mixing has allowed dew points to
fall into the upper 50s at KINT, KGSO, KEXX, and KHNZ and the lower
60s across most of the remainder of the Piedmont. Further east and
southeast across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills moisture lingers
with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. This has resulted in
a bit more cumulus clouds and perhaps a little vertical growth near
and just behind the front from Maxton to just southeast of
Fayetteville to just south of Goldsboro. Wouldn`t be shocked if a
rogue shower or storm develop near or east of this line through
around 6pm but the coverage and intensity should be very limited and
more favored to the east.

Generally fair weather is expected overnight with a northwest to
westerly flow aloft, An approaching mid level disturbance may
trigger a weak area of low pressure to develop in the Carolinas
overnight on the front, or at least buckle the front and the
moisture back west slightly. Some of the CAMs, primarily the HRRR
suggest a rogue shower could develop late tonight across southern or
southeastern areas, there is very little support for this in the
other CAM guidance so will exclude any overnight PoPs. There could
be some patchy fog or low stratus across the Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain toward day break as well. Lows tonight should range in
the lower 60s in the Triad and VA border counties, with mid 60s in
the Triangle and southern Piedmont and the upper 60s in the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Could see a few upper 50s in the
typically colder spots such as Henderson and Sanford. These lows
range from 1 to 4 degrees below average. Even more notable will be
the dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s which will result in a much
more pleasant morning for the first day of school in many locations.


KEY MESSAGE 2... There will be a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon along and east of the I-95 corridor.

The cold front moving across central North Carolina today will
become hung up along the Atlantic coastline tonight into Tuesday.
The bulk of the convection that will occur Monday will be along the
immediate coastline, but models have inched the western edge of the
precipitation slightly farther to the west than they were yesterday.
Other than around Fayetteville, it still appears that nearly all
precipitation that occurs should remain east of I-95, and chances
for storms are anywhere between 20-40%. The Storm Prediction Center
does have a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms along the
coastline, just clipping the southern tip of Sampson County. Again,
it is along the coastline where the greatest instability and wind
shear will remain.


Key Message 3: Diurnally based convection returns to the forecast on
Wednesday, maximized on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... The front will inch northward Wednesday and
Thursday, eventually extending from Elizabeth City to Monroe. The
chance of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon should generally be to
the southeast of the Triangle, although all locations are likely to
see at least some minimal precipitation Thursday. As the front
retreats back to the coastline for the weekend, precipitation will
become more scattered, but locations in the southeast will have
higher chances of rain than locations in the northwest. Temperatures
should be near normal for late August, with highs around 90 and lows
around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 PM Sunday...

Fair weather and VFR conditions are expected through the overnight
hours across all of central NC. However, after midnight there`s a
chance of some low stratus and fog development mainly across the
south and east which could cause some temporary restrictions at KRWI
and KFAY.

Outlook: A stalled front across the Coastal Plain could produce some
isolated storms near KFAY/KRWI Monday afternoon. As the air mass
becomes gradually more moist over the outlook period, the risk of
scattered afternoon and evening storms will gradually increase, with
the greatest chances on Wednesday and especially Thursday. There
will also be an increase risk of late night and early morning fog
and stratus, especially across eastern and southern locations.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blaes/Green
AVIATION...CA/Blaes