Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
564 FXUS65 KREV 120758 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1258 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler weather continues through Tuesday morning, with chilly overnight temperatures. * Valley rain showers and snow on the highest peaks are possible through Tuesday morning. * A gradual warming trend resumes starting Tuesday, with dry conditions and light afternoon breezes returning. && .DISCUSSION... Sierra and western Nevada showers increase this afternoon and evening as a cold upper low crosses the Great Basin. Cold air aloft and daytime heating support a 15% chance of thunderstorms along the Sierra crest from 11 AM to 5 PM. Lightning and brief bursts of heavier rain or snow would be the main hazards. Snow levels near 6000-7500 feet today fall sharply tonight, dropping below 6000 feet around 8-11 PM in the Tahoe area and 11 PM-2 AM in Mono County. By daybreak Tuesday, levels reach roughly 4000 feet near Truckee and 5500 feet near Mammoth. Most showers end before the coldest air arrives; showers lingering into Tuesday morning would increase snowfall potential in Mono County. Snowfall potential has generally decreased since Sunday. Our forecast through Tuesday morning calls for a dusting to less than an inch at Donner, Echo, and Spooner summits, around an inch at Carson Pass, the Mount Rose Highway summit, and Tioga Pass, and around 2 inches at Sonora Pass. Little or no accumulation is forecast in Truckee and around Tahoe at lake level. Along US-395 in Mono County, the greatest potential for accumulating snow is near June Lake Junction, Deadman Summit, and Crestview. For the 24 hours from 5 AM today through 5 AM Tuesday: * Near June Lake Junction, Deadman Summit, and Crestview along US- 395, there is a 30-40% chance of more than 1 inch, 15-25% for more than 2 inches, below 25% for more than 3 inches, and 5-15% for more than 4 inches. * At Carson Pass, the Mount Rose Highway summit, and Sonora Pass, probabilities are approximately 25-30% for more than 1 inch, 10- 20% for more than 2 inches, below 20% for more than 3 inches, and below 10% for more than 4 inches. * At Donner, Echo, and Tioga passes, there is a 5-15% chance of more than 1 inch; probabilities of exceeding 2, 3, or 4 inches are each below 10%. * At Tahoe lake level and in Truckee, probabilities are below 10% for more than 1 inch and below 5% each for more than 2, 3, or 4 inches. Heavier showers can briefly reduce visibility and make passes slick despite modest totals. Tuesday morning lows in the teens and 20s in Sierra valleys and 20s to lower 30s across western Nevada also bring a risk of refreezing where roads remain wet. High pressure supports dry weather and warmer afternoons beyond Tuesday. High temperatures return to near or above seasonal norms into the weekend. Late-week Pacific systems remain mainly north of the region, with greater uncertainty in their southward extent toward the end of the weekend. -Johnston && .AVIATION... Prevailing VFR continues, with a low risk of brief MVFR and mountain obscuration as Sierra showers increase around 20-21Z Monday. There is a 15% chance of Sierra crest thunderstorms from 18Z Monday-00Z Tuesday. Showers diminish near KTRK/KTVL around 03Z Tuesday but linger later near KMMH, mixing with snow. At KMMH, there is approximately a 15% chance of ceilings at or below 3000 feet AGL around 03-04Z Tuesday. Northerly winds at KRNO/KCXP and northwest to north winds at KMEV increase around 21Z Monday, with gusts near 20-25 kt. Northwest gusts approach 20 kt at KTRK before winds ease this evening. LLWS is not expected; areas of turbulence remain a concern aloft through 12Z Monday. At KTRK, there is around a 40% chance of wetting precipitation through 12Z Tuesday. Rain wetting the airport followed by clearing and light winds would favor fog Tuesday morning. Near 15Z Tuesday, there is a 10-15% chance of visibility below 3 SM and a 5-10% chance below 1 SM, with greater fog potential if appreciable rain falls at the airport today. Conditions improve Tuesday as showers end and any morning fog dissipates, with widespread VFR expected by afternoon. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$