565
FXUS65 KREV 300828
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
128 AM PDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There are low chances for showers and storms this afternoon in
  Mono and Mineral counties. Otherwise, temperatures start to
  increase this weekend.

* Areas of smoke and haze may locally impact visibility and air
  quality the next several days due to fires west of the crest and
  in northern Washoe County.

* Thunderstorm chances return for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A high pressure ridge will move into the region this weekend.
  This will allow for temperatures to increase to around average
  readings today and around 2-5 degrees above average for Sunday.
  We`ll dry out for much of the region this weekend. But, with
  afternoon heating and orographics, we will still have a 10-15%
  chance for isolated showers and storms this afternoon and Sunday
  afternoon. These storms will primarily impact areas in Mono and
  Mineral counties, with a lower 5-10% chance for showers in the
  Tahoe area.

* The region is also seeing impacts from wildfires burning across
  the west. As of now, smoke and haze is primarily from the Garnet
  Fire in the southern Sierra. But a new fire start in northern
  Washoe County west of Gerlach will likely add more smoke and
  haze to the mix today. For the latest on air quality conditions,
  visit fire.airnow.gov. As long as fires are burning across the
  west, we`ll contend with additional smoke and haze impacts
  across the area.

* For Monday through the rest of the week, model ensembles
  indicate high pressure expanding and strengthening over the
  Great Basin. Temperatures will remain around 2-4 degrees above
  average for most of next week, with low 90s in western NV,
  eastern Lassen County, and lower elevations of Mono County. The
  Sierra will enjoy comfortable low to mid 80s, with mid 60s to
  low 70s higher up. Looking at the larger synoptic pattern, the
  upper level flow around the high will once again allow for
  monsoonal moisture from the south to filter back north into the
  area. The confidence in this high pressure setup is high. The
  other upper air feature this upcoming week with lower confidence
  will be a northward drift of a low pressure off the CA coast.
  If the low is more inland, we will see more convection compared
  to if this feature remains off the coast or speeds up. At the
  moment, given the moisture streaming north combined with
  afternoon heating, there is increasing confidence that showers
  and storms will make a return starting as early as Monday, but
  more so Tuesday through the end of the week. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Smoke filtering in from the Garnet Fire may bring periods of
  visibility reduction at KMMH. A new fire start in northern
  Washoe County may also bring visibility reductions to portions
  of western NV. Any other restrictions to visibility will be
  primarily slantwise with haze aloft.

* Drier conditions for the weekend, with a 10-15% chance for a
  stray storm to form in Mono/Mineral Counties. Storm chances
  expand once again next week. -McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$