390
FXUS65 KREV 280839
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
139 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A drying trend begins today with reduced coverage and potential of
  thunderstorms through the weekend.

* Cooler than normal temperatures persist through next week, but
  minor warming is expected this weekend.

* Thunderstorm chances increase in the Sierra, Sierra Front, and
  northeast California early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm activity finally winds down over the next few days as
southwest flow introduces drier air into the region. We`ll retain
enough moisture to support showers and t-storms Thursday and Friday
afternoons, but coverage and intensity of storms will be reduced
compared to the last several days. The best potential (20-40% odds)
for t-storms will be along and east of US-95 where the overlap of
residual moisture and instability is greatest. A few midafternoon
showers or a stray t-storm will be possible west of US-95 --
especially in Lassen County and from Tahoe/Reno southward into Mono
County -- but odds are less than 20%. Otherwise, smoke from the
Garnet fire is projected to filter into Mono County today, likely
resulting in periods of hazy skies and reduced air quality.

Storm potential Friday will be similar to today with the
Mono-S.Lyon-Mineral Co vicinity and areas east of US-95 having
the greatest likelihood of afternoon showers and storms. Much more
quiescent weather is expected this weekend with only low odds of
showers and t-storms in the Mono-S.Lyon-Mineral Co. area Sunday
afternoon. While temperatures will remain cooler than normal
through next week, minor warming trend will bring daytime highs
into the low 80s and low 90s from Saturday onward.

Thunderstorm potential trends upward during the first half of next
week as weak low pressure and attendant instability pivots through
the region. It`s still too early to give details with much
confidence, but this stint of t-storms will likely be less
widespread compared to our latest stormy period. It`s also probable
that moisture availability will be more sparse, which would favor a
greater dry lightning/fire threat opposed to a heavy rain/flash
flooding event. Again, confidence is low at the point but it`s
certainly worth keeping in mind.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds and FG will likely induce a 3-6 hour window of IFR
conditions at KTRk between 10Z and 16Z this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds prevail through the morning.

Showers and thunderstorms develop again this afternoon, but with
lesser odds and coverage compared to the last several days. Most
showers and thunderstorms will remain east of regional TAF sites,
but there is a 10-20% chance of t-storms at KMMH between 21Z and
00Z. A few showers may develop around Tahoe terminals and KRNO-KCXP-
KMEV, but a cumulus build-ups around these sites is the more likely
outcome in the afternoon.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$