854
FXUS65 KREV 212000
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
100 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty southwest winds will bring a period of critical fire
  weather conditions and lake recreation impacts to parts of
  northeast CA, northwest and far western NV Saturday.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms return this weekend across
  parts of the eastern Sierra and western NV, with the highest
  chances on Saturday.

* Near seasonal temperatures prevail through next week with
  overall dry conditions and afternoon breezes, which may increase
  for a day or two around the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A swath of mid-high level clouds continues to track northward
across northern CA-western NV today, leading to a slight cooling
compared to the past couple of days. Slight instability may lead
to a few showers across west central NV east of US-95 through the
rest of this afternoon, although the chance for lightning is 10%
or less. Elsewhere, winds edge upward a bit with gusts 25-30 mph
across parts of northeast CA and western NV through early this
evening.

For Saturday, we`ll see winds increase as an upper level trough
associated with a low pressure off the Pacific NW coast passes
across northeast CA/northwest NV. This will bring lake recreation
impacts for northeast CA and far western NV, where Lake Wind
Advisories have been issued, and increased fire concerns with
further details in the Fire Weather section below. Meanwhile, an
increase in instability from the eastern Sierra of Mono County
northward across areas of western NV will lead to 15-35% chances
of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The best chances in western
NV favor Lyon, Mineral, Churchill and Pershing counties, but a
few cells could build a bit farther west across eastern parts of
Storey, Carson City and Douglas counties. This activity is
projected to start as early as 1-2 PM, and linger until 8-9 pm for
far eastern portions of the Basin and Range, with stronger storms
producing outflow gusts up to 45 mph, brief heavy rainfall, small
hail and several lightning strikes.

By Sunday, the winds trend downward to more typical gusts to near
25 mph. Shower and thunderstorm coverage decreases compared to
Saturday, although isolated showers with 10-15% chance of
lightning remain for Sunday afternoon, mainly in west central NV
and eastern Mono County.

For next week, the ensemble guidance is trending to a drier
scenario while temperatures remain near or slightly above late
August averages, with highs mainly 90-95 for lower elevations and
lower 80s for Sierra communities. Typical afternoon breezes are
expected, although a weak shortwave brushing across the Pacific NW
may kick winds up a bit around the Tuesday-Thursday time frame,
depending on the timing of this system`s passage. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions prevail with widespread mid to high level clouds
  through much of this weekend. Shower/thunder chances return
  this weekend mainly on Saturday, but storms have a 10% or less
  chance of affecting the main terminals.

* SW-W wind gusts 20-25 kts at the main terminals today through
  02-04Z. SW winds increase Saturday with gusts near 30 kt at the
  main terminals, except a bit less at KTRK/KTVL. By Sunday, winds
  decrease to similar levels as today. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Wind gusts of 25-30 mph this afternoon will bring isolated
  periods of elevated fire weather conditions across northeast CA
  and northwest NV, extending southward to near the Reno area.

* The greater fire weather concerns arrive on Saturday from late
  morning through the evening, as an upper trough passage
  increases wind gusts to the 30-40 mph range across northeast CA,
  northwest NV, and the Northern Sierra Front. While humidity
  values aren`t exceedingly low (minimums 12-18%), most of these
  areas did not receive much rainfall last week, resulting in a
  greater extent of dry vegetation where fire could spread more
  quickly when the winds pick up. Therefore we have issued Red
  Flag Warnings for these areas, so be extra cautious and fire
  safe, avoiding outdoor recreation or work activities that could
  spark any fires.

* From Sunday through next week, afternoon breezes continue but at
  lower speeds compared to Saturday. The next time period to watch
  could be as soon as next Tuesday or Wednesday, when winds
  potentially trend upward again, while afternoon humidity
  decreases as a dry air mass settles in. MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ420-458.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday NVZ003.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ270-278.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday CAZ071.

&&

$$