215
FXUS65 KREV 031019
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
219 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A quick-moving low pressure system will bring gusty winds and
  increased chances for light rain/mountain snow showers today.

* Dry and mild weather prevails after Tuesday with temperatures
  trending warmer through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

For today, model guidance shows a Pacific upper low moving across N
CA this afternoon and into N NV tonight. There is also quite a
robust upper jet (around 100 kts at 250 mb) wrapping around this low
and moving over the Sierra this morning. With these increased winds
aloft, they will mix down during the day allowing for Sierra
ridgetop winds to gust up to around 60-80 mph out of the southwest
through the afternoon. These strong winds expect to also mix down
into eastern Sierra valleys and along the Sierra Front, with surface
gusts up to 25-35 mph, potentially reaching 50 mph in wind-prone
areas. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect today for Lake Tahoe as
well, with lake winds gusting up to around 30 mph bringing choppy
and hazardous lake conditions through this afternoon. Keep these
winds in mind if you have travel or recreational plans for today.

As for precipitation concerns today, the 06Z run of the RRFS
projects light rain and mountain snow showers generally moving
west to east across the region during the afternoon and evening
hours as the low pressure system passes through. The latest timing
on these shower chances begins in NE CA and the Tahoe region
around 1-2 PM PST, before spreading into the Sierra Front and
Eastern Sierra around around 3-4 PM, then moving into the NV Basin
and Range around 5-6 PM, and finally departing the region around
9 PM. Sierra and NE CA precipitation chances will be around 40-80%
while the remainder of the region generally sees ~15-30% chances.
Accumulations continue to look light as QPF values range between
a trace and 0.2 inches, with the higher amounts at the Sierra
crest. Snow levels today generally will be around 6500-7500 ft in
the Tahoe region and 7000-8000 ft in Mono County. Snowfall
amounts look to be mostly little to none in areas that see snow
showers, with the exception of the Sierra crest having a 40-70%
probability of 1+ inches of snow by this evening. Donner Pass has
a 15-30% NBM probability of 1+ inches of snow as well. Road going
over the Sierra could be slick due to this snowfall, so use
caution if traveling through the area. Overnight low temperatures
will drop once again in the wake of these showers, with Sierra
communities seeing lows in the mid teens to middle 20s and W NV
lows being between the upper 20s and mid-30s.

On Wednesday, forecast guidance projects the upper low departing to
the east with a ridge moving over the area. This ridge is briefly
flattened by a weak trough passing through the NW CONUS on Thursday,
but it begins to redevelop going into the weekend. This signals dry
weather for the remainder of the week and through the weekend.
Daytime high temperatures cool by a few degrees on Wednesday in W
NV, but temperatures trend warmer across the entire region
Thursday through the weekend. Currently, forecast high
temperatures on Sunday for NE CA and W NV valleys are in the
mid-60s to around the 70 degree mark with highs in Sierra
communities ranging between the lower and mid-60s. The latest run
of the NBM then shows precipitation chances returning next
Tuesday, which could be the start of a wetter weather pattern for
midweek. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

Increased winds and light rain/mountain snow shower chances are
expected in the region today, with Sierra ridgetops gusting up to
around 60-70 kts causing potential mountain wave turbulence and LLWS
along and east of the Sierra. The window for precipitation still
looks to be between 03/22Z-04/03Z with showers generally moving west
to east across the region. Area terminals could see brief periods
of MVFR conditions if a shower occurs nearby. Not anticipating
much if any snowfall accumulation at Sierra terminals with snow
levels forecast between 6500-7500 ft. KTRK could see freezing fog
developing between 04/04-18Z, but not enough confidence to add to
the TAF at this time. Drier conditions are expected going into
Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. -Justin/078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
     afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
     afternoon CAZ072.

&&

$$