Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 160036 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Reno NV
241 PM PST Fri Feb 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow showers will continue this afternoon with additional chances
for snow expected through Sunday. Travel will be difficult,
especially in the Sierra, through the weekend. Cold conditions and
periods of snow showers to follow heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Few changes made to the ongoing forecast as a cold area of low
pressure continues to produce snow showers across the region this
afternoon. Thunderstorms in the Sacramento and San Joaquin
Valleys are allowing for efficient spillover into the eastern
Sierra and western Nevada. The character of the snow is dry and
powdery, which combined with the gusty winds today is leading to
white out conditions in the Sierra. Road conditions in the Sierra
remain treacherous with many roads closed as of the time of
writing and very few ways to get across the mountain. We would
strongly urge you not to travel or you face lengthy delays and
dangerous conditions. Please check with CalTrans and/or NDOT for
the latest on roads.

For the most part, snow is not accumulating in western Nevada this
afternoon, but heavier snow showers may lead to an inch or so of
additional accumulation. It will be harder for snow to stick to
roads that are already clear as road temperatures have warmed
into the low 50s this afternoon, but that will change once the sun
sets. Snow showers will taper off across western Nevada tonight,
but are likely to continue across the Sierra. One thing to watch
out for each night and morning is water on roadways refreezing.
Black ice can be extremely hard to see at night, so take it slow
and be safe out there.

The next wave rotates into the area of low pressure tonight into
Saturday, once again reinvigorating snow potential across the
region. This will bring more snow to the Sierra with lighter
showers and limited totals in western Nevada. Yet another wave
moves in Saturday night into Sunday with -- you guessed it -- more
snow. By Sunday afternoon and evening, snow will taper off to
showers with travel conditions improving, yet roads may still be
recovering from the copious amounts of snow that already fell. By
Monday, flow turns northeasterly, which could produce a few
upslope showers into the eastern Sierra, but chances are only
about 15-20% with minimal, if any, accumulation. Otherwise, expect
clearing Monday into Tuesday with this finally being a good
window for travel.

Temperatures will remain cold, with highs about 10-18 degrees
below normal for this time of the year. Lows will be cold, but not
much below normal the next couple of nights, but once we clear out
Monday into Tuesday, will plunge. Widespread teens to low 20s are
likely for western Nevada with single digit to below zero
temperatures in the Sierra. -Dawn


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next weekend...

Main changes were to ramp up pops/QPF for Wed-Thu as the next upper
trough drops southward into the region.

The synoptic scale pattern shows no sign of budging much with the
exception of the east Pacific ridge axis shifting ever so slightly
east. This pattern is conducive for cold air to remain entrenched
throughout the western U.S. while storms tracking a bit more inland
suggest lower overall QPF.

For Tuesday, conditions will be quiet but still quite cold. A lead
shortwave moving southeast in advance of the main trough will brush
the region Wednesday with increasing clouds and a chance for light
snow along the Sierra and snow showers across western NV. Any snow
accumulations Wednesday will be limited. The main upper low drops in
Wednesday night with another strong cold front advancing south
through the area. The system is moving fairly quickly compared the
current storm and its trajectory is currently progged inland. So QPF
and resulting snow amounts are likely to be more limited (possibly
up to a foot in the Sierra) and several inches across lower
elevations (snow levels are not going to rise above any valley
floors this week). There is still, of course, a chance the system
could carve farther west which would slow the timing down but also
increase QPF/snow amounts.

As the upper low drops into southern CA/southern NV, snow will
linger on the back side, especially for areas south of Highway 50
including the eastern Sierra of Mono County Thursday. It will
otherwise be brisk and cold all areas Thursday. Expect travel
impacts for the Sierra to begin as early as the Wednesday evening
commute and continue through Thursday. For lower elevations, the
Thursday morning commute is the most likely one to be impacted.

There will be a brief break Friday and then signs are pointing to
yet another cold upper low dropping into the region just in time for
the weekend. Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Very little improvement for the Tahoe Basin terminals and the
eastern Sierra of Mono County including KMMH as convective snow
bands west of the crest move into these areas in a very cold and
unstable airmass. Overall light to moderate snow will continue
through Sunday with bursts of heavy accumulating snow expected.
Gusty winds will persist through Saturday and bring periods of
blowing and drifting snow as well.

For lower elevations, several waves moving through the mean upper
trough will bring periods of light snow with the chance for brief
bursts of moderate snow with any showers that make it across the
Sierra into the lower valleys (especially in the Reno-Carson area).
Snow accumulations will be more variable and more likely to occur
outside of daylight as the sun angle is now strong enough to warm
treated surfaces. Accumulations with any particular band will
generally be 1-2 inches. Strong ridge winds will persist into
Saturday keeping the threat for turbulence and some localized but
short-lived LLWS. Winds drop off Saturday evening through Sunday
as the upper low moves overhead. Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Sunday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Sunday CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Sunday CAZ073.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Sunday CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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