Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 260946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 AM PDT Tue Sep 26 2023


Smoke from the Quarry fire will impact air quality this afternoon
and evening south of US-50. Otherwise, we`ll continue with
seasonal temperatures, dry weather, and lighter winds today into
Thursday. A trough dropping south into the region on Friday
into the start of next week will bring much cooler temperatures
and increasing chances for precipitation.



Currently, water vapor imagery is showing a large scale trough
stretching across the northeast Pacific into the northwest US. A
surface low pressure is near the central OR/ID border, with a cold
front extending south into northwest NV and northern CA. This
front has been mostly dry for our area, with just some light radar
echos currently in Plumas County. But, we did manage to pick up
between 0.01-0.11" in far western Lassen County since the
afternoon. The larger impacts from this system were the strong
winds and very low humidities on Monday. Smoke is still being
transported from the Quarry Fire into the southern Tahoe Basin and
southern Carson Valley. Any smoke produced today from this
wildfire will continue to impact air quality in those
aforementioned areas later this afternoon and evening.

For today into Thursday, ensembles are in good agreement that the
upper level trough will move east. This will maintain a larger
scale trough pattern over the western US. Temperatures will remain
seasonal through Friday, with continued dry weather and lighter
winds. There is growing confidence that an upper low will cutoff
and drop south into the Great Basin by late Friday into the start
of next week. This will allow for temperatures to further decrease
between 10-15 degrees below average by the weekend. There is
currently a 15% chance of precipitation by late Friday, with
increasing chances of precipitation areawide on Saturday through
Monday (20-40%). This system will be cold enough to allow for
measurable snowfall in the higher elevations in the Sierra, where
there is a 40% chance for at least 1" of snow along the crests.



VFR conditions will persist for main terminals through the
forecast period. FL100 winds will continue from the southwest
at around 30-40 kts until 18Z this morning before gradually
decreasing to 20-20kts this afternoon. Therefore expect continued
enhanced ridge-top winds, periods of LLWS, and mountain wave
turbulence over the Sierra (KSVE/KTRK/KTVL) and far western
terminals(KRNO/KCXP/KMEV) until around 18Z.

Periods of smoke and haze, due to the Quarry fire near Strawberry
CA, could bring lowered slantwise visibility this morning in the
southern Tahoe Basin and Carson Valley. Terminals south of US-50
and west of US-95 could see brief periods of MVFR conditions from
smoke this afternoon and evening.


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