212
FXUS65 KREV 152056
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
156 PM PDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A brief lull in the active weather pattern for today, with cool
  temperatures and mostly cloudy skies.

* Another winter storm will move in with strong winds starting
  Sunday afternoon, then heavy Sierra snowfall Sunday night
  through Monday.

* Chilly temperatures Tuesday will be followed by slight warming
  and periods of additional unsettled weather mid-late next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

The majority of the area today is seeing highs in the 50s and 40s
(valleys and mountains, respectively). However, spotty snow
showers are possible this afternoon in NE CA, primarily western
Lassen county. Wind gusts stay up today, but won`t be as gusty as
the past couple of days, with gusts up to 25 mph.

Our next winter storm will start to impact the area Sunday with
strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. Currently, there is an
80% chance of max gusts exceeding 60 mph on Sunday for much of W
NV (north and east of Carson City). Wind gusts will remain
elevated Monday, with a 70% chance of max gusts exceeding 45 mph
across W NV. Patches of blowing dust are possible both days,
downwind of desert sinks. Loose items are at risk of getting blown
away; make sure to secure any loose ourdoor objects. Additionally,
difficult travel is expected for high profile vehicles.

The winter storm will bring moderate to heavy snowfall across the
Sierra through Monday, and will progress in a north to south
fashion. Snow showers are expected to start in NE CA Sunday
afternoon, and reach the Tahoe Basin before sunset; Mono county
can expect snowfall to start late Sunday. 1-2 feet of snow is
possible along the Sierra crest (Tahoe Basin and northward) with
ridge gusts up to 100 mph. For details on snow levels, snowfall
rates, and snow-to-liquid ratios, please see the avalanche
discussion below.

This winter storm system will continue through Monday, with snow
showers reaching W NV valleys along the Sierra Front Monday
morning ahead of the AM commute. Valley accumulations will be
little to none but roads may be slick. Additionally, foothill
communities (Virginia City, Verdi, Galena, etc.) could see 1-3
inches of snow early Monday morning.

Cool temperatures stick around through Tuesday before we start to
warm up a bit midweek. This also introduces the return of valley
inversions. Spring isn`t here to stay just yet; unsettled weather
returns as early as this weekend. -Giralte

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through Sunday morning with partly sunny
skies and strong wind gusts (up to 30 kts) for all terminals.
Periods of LLWS expected, as well, primarily after sunset for
Sierra front terminals and after midnight for Sierra terminals.
Mountain wave turbulence will be prevalent, with multiple AIRMETs
out for turbulence and LLWS.

A strong winter storm arrives Sunday afternoon, bringing
additional LLWS and IFR/LIFR conditions for Sierra terminals. This
storm will continue through Monday, bringing potential MVFR
conditions to Sierra front terminals. -Giralte

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A strong winter storm will bring moderate to heavy snowfall across
the Sierra starting Sunday afternoon and continuing through
Monday.

* SWE, SLR, and Snow Levels: SWE of 1.25-3" for the Tahoe Basin,
  and decreasing as you move southward. Eastern Sierra Avalanche
  Center terrain can expect SWE up to 1.25". SLRs will start
  around 8:1 at the storm`s onset, then increase to 10-12:1
  overnight Sunday. Snow levels will start around 6000 ft Sunday
  afternoon for the Tahoe Basin, and around 5500-6000 ft for Mono
  county (late Sunday evening). Snow levels will fluctuate
  through the storm, but start to crash below 5000 ft around
  sunrise (Tahoe) and early Monday afternoon (Mono).

* Snowfall totals and rates: The highest peaks in the Tahoe Basin
  can expect 1-2` of snow with 6-12" below 7000 ft. Totals in
  Mono county will be locally lower, with up to 12" along the
  highest peaks and 2-6" below 8000 ft. The heaviest snowfall
  rates for the Tahoe Basin will take place between 11pm Sunday
  and 5am Monday. As for Mono county, that will be slightly
  delayed, with peak rates between 5am and 11am Monday. Rates for
  all avalanche terrain will range between 1-2"/hr.

-Giralte

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday NVZ003>005.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ002.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday NVZ001.

CA...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Sunday CAZ070.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday
     CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday CAZ073.

&&

$$