715
FXUS65 KRIW 281711
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1111 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another cooler day with shower and isolated thunderstorm
  chances (50-90%). The greatest coverage of showers and
  thunderstorm is forecast across northwestern Wyoming and east
  of the Divide.

- More scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-70%) Friday
  and Saturday east of the Divide.

- Temperatures increase to near to slightly above normal Sunday
  into early next week with limited precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

08Z water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilted upper-level ridge
over the Intermountain West and an upper-level low center over the
Pacific Northwest extending into Idaho and Montana. As today
progresses, a building upper ridge over the Great Basin will push
the low north and Intermountain West ridge east. With enhanced
vorticity aloft and deep moisture, another day of rainy weather is
forecast. However, differing from Wednesday, the greatest coverage
of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be east of the Divide,
where support aloft is maximized and mean PWATs generally range from
0.75 inch to 1.2 inch. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will also
be common across western Wyoming, including Yellowstone National
Park, given favorable upsloping flow. Additionally, an upper-level
wind maximum rounding a Four Corners upper-high will be present over
southern Wyoming this afternoon along with a tightening pressure
gradient. This translates to frequent 20 to 25 mph gusts across
southern Wyoming.

On Friday, the upper-level Great Basin ridge continues to build
northward and the upper-low is forecast to roughly be centered over
the Montana/Canada border. This leaves Wyoming in deep northwest
flow. The low`s surface reflection is expected to trek southeast
from Montana into the South Dakota/Nebraska area, focusing shower
and thunderstorm chances east of the Divide. The greatest rainfall
amounts, generally around 0.25 inches, will be across the northern
Bighorn Mountains due to upsloping. By Saturday, a shortwave will
provide support aloft for scattered showers and potentially
thunderstorms east of the Divide during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

There is consensus among ensemble guidance members that the upper-
level ridge will continue to build across the western CONUS Sunday
and remain through much of next week, keeping the Intermountain West
in northwest flow aloft. Associated height rises at the surface and
a lack of moisture will limit precipitation chances Sunday through at
least the middle of next week. Despite northwest flow aloft, a warm
up to near to slightly above normals looks favorable during this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening across a
majority of the area. Chances range from about 20% to 80%, with
PROB30 and prevailing rain shower/storm groups in the TAFs. Rain
chances will be on a decreasing trend between after 00z. ANy shower
or storm could bring brief category drops to MVFR due to heavy rain
and lower clouds/ceilings.

Fog is again possible around KLND and KRIW tonight. Currently low
confidence due to guidance having little consensus. Will have to
reevaluate for the next TAF issuance.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gerhardt
AVIATION...Wittmann