033
FXUS65 KRIW 020905
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
205 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread lower elevation rain and mountain snow occurs this
  morning and through the day today. Areas east of the Divide
  and Sweetwater County will likely (60-80% chances or greater)
  see moisture. Minor winter travel impacts for South Pass and
  Powder River/Granite Passes this morning.

- North to northwest winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph will
  continue across the area this morning, with gusts of 25 to 35
  mph impacting western portions through 11AM. Strongest winds
  occur for northern Johnson County, where gusts 50 mph or
  greater are likely.

- Dry conditions with temperatures at or slightly below normal
  expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Light rain showers continue from areas around Muddy Gap to
northwest Natrona County as of 08Z (1AM) this morning, with
additional showers near Dubois and Pavillion in the Wind River
Basin. North to northwest winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph have
also developed across areas east of the Divide in the last hour
or so as the main sfc low has now moved over western portions of
SD/NE. This trend (of winds and precipitation) will continue
through the rest of the day today as the main storm system
continues its eastward progression over the Northern/Central
Plains. The highest amounts of precipitation will occur through
the morning hours (focused over areas east of the Divide as well
as Sweetwater County) as most of the supporting upper level
dynamics will have shifted well to the east by 18Z. Natrona and
southern portions of Johnson County are expected to receive the
highest amounts, ranging between 0.20 to 0.50". Winds will
increase over western portions by 12Z, with gusts of 25 to 35
mph, before decreasing after 18Z. At the same time, gusts of 50
to 60 mph will develop over northern portions of Johnson County
and continue through much of the day. This remains in line with
the current High Wind Warning for northern Johnson County that
is in effect through 3PM. Snowfall amounts remain largely
unchanged, with Winter Weather Advisories for the east slopes of
the Wind River and Bighorn Mountains in effect through 5PM.
Advisory amounts of snow (6") for Casper amounts are still on
the marginal side with confidence remaining too low to issue an
Advisory at this time. Overall, it will be a cloudy and windy
day across the CWA today with daytime highs in the 40s.

Winds will decrease through the evening as the gradient begins
to weaken and the main storm system continues its eastward
progression. Gusts up to 35 mph will continue over much of
Johnson County through the night. Clouds will also begin to
scatter out from west to east in the evening. Possible fog
formation will be a concern Tuesday morning as a result,
especially for areas east of the Divide. Precipitation amounts
today will likely help drive this from occurring.

Conditions are expected to remain dry through the rest of the
week. An area of high pressure will settle over MT Tuesday and
keep temperatures at or slightly below normal and winds light.
This high center will also keep a weak Pacific system to the
south over UT/CO Wednesday, with the main impact being mainly in
the form of cloudy skies over southern/southwestern portions.
The pattern briefly becomes more active by Thursday as another
weak trough moves over the Northern Rockies and a second cold
front clips northeastern portions of the state on Friday. High
winds look possible again over northern Johnson County in the
wake of this front, with a 110 to 120kt jet supporting the
front. Wind looks to be the main impact with this front for now
with conditions remaining dry through the weekend as a strong
ridge moves over the Northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals

Western terminals should see precipitation gradually dissipate
through the overnight into the morning hours on Monday. A few
showers may be possible overnight at KJAC, KPNA, and KBPI. KRKS
is the one exception to this as showers and prevailing rain are
expected to persist to around 16Z Monday. MVFR conditions should
improve becoming VFR by the mid to late morning on Monday.
Winds will be breezy at times with speeds of 10 to 15 knots and
occasional gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds are expected to
decrease by the mid to late afternoon on Monday. Mountains will
likely be obscured through much of the TAF period, some
improvement is possible by the afternoon and evening Monday.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals

VFR conditions are gradually diminishing across nearly all
terminals to start the TAF period. Precipitation coverage will
increase through the overnight especially at KLND, KRIW, and
KCPR. These terminals are likely to see prevailing MVFR to IFR
conditions and steady rain into late Monday morning. Showers may
be possible at KWRL and KCOD through the overnight hours into
Monday morning. PROB30 groups are in place for both terminals
from about 12 to 18Z Monday for light rain. Winds will be breezy
at time through the overnight with most terminals seeing speeds
of 10 to 15 knots. Stronger winds are forecast at KRIW where
speeds may range between 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30
knots. Prevailing precipitation at KLND, KRIW, and KCPR should
begin to decrease by the late morning hours on Monday. Some
showers may linger after 18Z Monday with all locations drying
out by 00Z Tuesday. Most terminals will flirt with MVFR
conditions even after the precipitation stops. Improvement may
not occur until after 00Z Tuesday into the end of the TAF
period. Mountains will be obscured through much of if not all of
the TAF period.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC
for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for WYZ009-
015.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM to 5 PM MST this afternoon
for WYZ009-015.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ010.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
WYZ014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LaVoie
AVIATION...Dziewaltowski