832
FXUS61 KRLX 122345
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
745 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated PoPs to better represent observations and trends. Also,
took out mention of thunderstorm chances until the late morning
and early afternoon as the threat for thunderstorms remains low
for the overnight.

00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

Little to no changes made from previous forecast cycle.
Blanketed overcast skies and anvil blow off have promoted a
stable atmosphere over the area today, with severe weather
potential staying west in Indiana. Model trends suggest a window
of storm development around midnight tonight, but could be
dependent upon antecedent convection. Will continue to closely
monitor satellite and radar this afternoon to determine
propagation and probability of storms later on today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Prolonged risk for flash flooding stems into the second half
of the work week amid daily chances of showers and storms
across the Ohio Valley. Torrential rainfall tied to these
storms will exacerbate already saturated soils.

2.) Additional showers and storms are possible into early next
week, but a brief interlude from active weather takes shape for
the start of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The weather in our forecast area looks vastly different than it
did this time yesterday. Convective debris spilling in from
storms firing up in the Ohio Valley this afternoon has kept us
in a more stable state, with temperatures hovering in the mid
70s. Satellite views upstream sheds light on the path of least
resistance of today`s storms, currently taking a southeast dive
from Indiana into Kentucky. The eastern flank of this line,
encompassing much of Ohio, has retained mostly stratiform rain
with some embedded thunder, and hasn`t made much forward
progress into the Ohio River Valley throughout the course of the
day.

Hi-res model guidance tends to struggle with a weather pattern
such as this, so closely monitoring satellite and radar trends
will be apparent for situational awareness and forecast updates
heading into this evening and overnight. Any showers or storms
that reach the Central Appalachians through the near term are
not expected to reach severity levels such as what we faced
yesterday, but could impose strong wind gusts and torrential
rainfall. Given very saturated soils from previous rainfall this
week, any heavy downpour that reaches the forecast area could
yield localized high water issues. No changes were made to the
ongoing Flood Watch, which remains intact through Friday morning
amid this active weather pattern. Convective trends for the area
will remain indicative of upstream evolution of storms each day
through the end of this week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level weather pattern shows no signs of varying
through this week, maintaining the Central Appalachians in an
area prone to daily showers and thunderstorms. The start of the
weekend trends slightly drier with the mass exodus of the
stalled front, but may quickly fill back in with additional
convection aiming for the Central Appalachians for Sunday and
onward. Limited severe and hydro concerns are expected in the
long term outlook as it currently stands.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Slight chances for an isolated light shower early tonight with
cloudy stratocu dominating the sky. The area should then dry
out. With the potential for some breaks in cloud coverage as
well as antecedent soil conditions patchy fog is likely in the
valleys and some surrounding areas. Some fog may spill into
sites such as PKB/EKN and affect restrictions down to IFR but
not expecting much else other than some MVFR in fog at the other
sites excluding BKW who will have enough surface flow to deter
fog, although will likely have low stratus for the mid morning.
After 13/14Z any fog should dissipate, however low MVFR CIGs
will hover around until the early afternoon at which point will
lift to VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Overnight restrictions caused by low
ceilings and/or fog may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/13/26
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    L    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Any clearing of skies will likely result in patchy stratus or
fog during the overnights given very wet ground conditions.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05/JZ
AVIATION...JZ