239
FXUS61 KRLX 190858
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
458 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A potential disturbance on Friday could now cause showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with a threat
of flash flooding Wednesday night into Thursday.

2) A potential disturbance could bring addition showers and
thunderstorms on Friday.

3) Yet another cold front pushes through on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, providing yet another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Models are showing precipitable water values over
2 inches in some places along the front. Due to the already
saturated ground, flash flooding will continue to be a
possibility.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Some models are showing an upper air disturbance moving across
the area on Friday. If enough moisture remains behind the cold
front, this could allow for some showers and thunderstorms,
although southeast Ohio should remain dry. Models vary on the
amount of moisture left behind and the precipitable water
values, leaving some uncertainty as to whether there will be a
flash flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Yet another cold front will push through the region on Saturday,
allowing for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Models
are currently showing precipitable water values peaking around
1.5 inches. This would work against a flash flood threat, but if
an area gets precipitation on Thursday and Friday, then could
not rule out some problems.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

After dense fog dissipates this morning, a cumulus deck can be
expected, gradually lifting.

Showers and thunderstorms will move in tonight, possibly causing
some IFR restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of dense fog lifting could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 08/19/26
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR in showers and thunderstorms at time Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY