Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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525 FXUS61 KRLX 090013 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 813 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding. Strong to severe storms are possible tonight and Thursday. Cooler beginning Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 626 PM Wednesday... Dry conditions persist across nearly all of the CWA at present, with heavy convection southwest of the region in central/southern Kentucky. CAMs continue to trend drier across the region overnight, with PoPs updated to account for this. Isolated strong storms and localized flooding issues remain possible overnight. No changes to the Flood Watch for the time being. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 146 PM Wednesday... Key Points: * Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning. * After a lull in activity this afternoon, strong to severe storms return this evening into Thursday morning. * A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place into Thursday morning, with some storms having the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours. Minor changes noted to the forecast. Stationary frontal boundary oscillates south to north through tonight, while a strong mid level shortwave ride overhead, providing extra forcing to sustain strong to severe convection. Although SPC has removed the enhanced and slight risks for severe weather across our south, it maintains a marginal risk for severe storms over most of the area through Thursday morning. Storms will have the potential for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours. Hi-res CAMs show a lull in convective activity this afternoon, becoming active this evening and tonight. Models show another lull in activity with showers and thunderstorms returning around midnight, and again from the west during the predawn hours Thursday morning. Localized flooding remains a concern as antecedent precipitation has lowered 1 hour FFG to 0.75-1.25 inches particularity across the Ohio River Valley and across southwest Virginia. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning for portions of the Middle OHio valley, northeast KY and central and southern WV. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Upper shortwave trough will be moving through the area Friday, with showers, and perhaps an isolated storm. No severe is anticipated. This will be followed by a brief break Friday night before another shortwave drops southeast into the area for Saturday. Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1215 PM Wednesday... Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period, even on Sunday, as a drier northwesterly flow remains over the area. Overnight low temperatures could even dip into the upper 30s across parts of the mountains Sunday morning. Warmer and dry conditions can be expected for Monday with high pressure, surface and aloft, briefly in control. Weather becomes very unsettled again Tuesday onward, as a low in the southern stream approaches the area. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times can be expected, and the period will need to be monitored for potential water issues. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM Wednesday... Widespread VFR conditions at present will persist most of the night amid lower CIGs and an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will be across southern WV and southwest VA. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible within showers/storms, but are not currently progged to impact any TAF locations. CIGs attempt to lower into MVFR by late tonight, but downslope flow may hamper this. Some river valley fog cannot be ruled out, primarily across the deeper valleys of southern WV. MVFR CIG restrictions remain possible Thursday morning into the afternoon, lingering longest at the central/northern terminals. Additionally, ISOL/SCT showers and storms develop throughout the day, particularly across central/northern locations, with brief MVFR VSBY restrictions possible within this activity. Given location uncertainty, prevailing restrictions have been left out the TAFs for the time being. Calm to light southerly flow is expected tonight. Southwest flow is expected on Thursday, with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts during the afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR CIG restrictions late tonight and on Thursday may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible overnight and on Thursday in some locations. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/09/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms into early Thursday night, then with fog and/or stratus Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ005>009-013>017- 024>026-033-034. OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ075-083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/GW NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...GW