Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
598 FXUS61 KRLX 270955 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 555 AM Update... ~12z aviation discussion. 317 AM Update... ~06Z aviation discussion. Lowered dew points by a few degrees starting this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Chances for showers a possible this morning mostly across the mountains and northeastern portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged. Models still diverge for end of the week/weekend, but a wet pattern may form come next Sunday/Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1.) Drier and cooler weather remains in place through most of the week, outside of chances for isolated showers across the northeastern mountains this morning. Wet pattern may set up by the end of the week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure to the north remains an influence keeping most of the area, especially the western half, dry and cooler. A massive, 990-MB coastal low remains offshore from New England. Streams of cloud cover will move overhead from the northeast today and tonight until this low moves farther north off the Coast of Newfoundland and Nova Scotia in Canada. Isolated showers and pockets of drizzle cannot be ruled out in the mountains, particularly the northeastern section, as well as northern West Virginia. Due to the aridity of our air mass, QPF will be less than a tenth of an inch. Outside of these slight chances for precipitation, the weather will be mostly dry and quiet through about Thursday afternoon. A front will move up from the south and park over the area Thursday night. Chances for showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms return with this front as it hangs around through the weekend. Confidence is still lacking with models showing a large divergence in outcomes Thursday through Sunday, but odds are favoring a reemergence of a wet pattern. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through Monday with upper 60s and lower 70s for highs across the lowlands and 50s and 60s in the mountains. Lows tonight and Monday night will drop into the 40s and 50s. This morning will may prove to be the coolest with most locations seeing 40s, and cold spots in the northern mountain valleys may reach the upper 30s. Cloud cover would be the sole hindrance for this. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Areas of dense fog have formed across the mountain and river valleys. So far, only CRW and EKN are reporting restrictions with IFR or lower being consistently reported with obs. CKB, and PKB may see some brief MVFR or IFR fog between ~11z and ~13z, but confidence is medium due to cloud cover and drier air mass at these sites. Restrictions will improve between ~13-15z this morning as fog lifts and scatters, then VFR is expected for the rest of the day. Winds will be light to calm this morning, but will pick up out of the NW by mid-morning, breezy to gusty at times with 10-20 knots in the lowlands and 20-35 knots across the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR this morning will likely vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/27/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L L M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR conditions are possible in morning river valley fog through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC