779
FXUS61 KRLX 092252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large high drifts by north of the region today through Friday.
This will lead to clear sky, and mountain valley frost tonight.
Coastal low forms and moves up the coast this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 522 PM Thursday...

Added Perry County, Ohio to the frost advisory with low temperatures
forecasted to be as low as 35F across portions of the county and
winds expected to be calm.

As of 1209 PM Thursday...

* Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories issued in the West
  Virginia mountains overnight into Friday morning *

Beautiful fall weather is expected the next two days with
temperatures reaching the upper 60s this afternoon under plenty of
sunshine. Temperatures will reach the lower 70s Friday afternoon
with no rain expected. High pressure will remain in place over the
middle Ohio Valley the entire near-term period.

Tonight, with mostly clear skies and dew points into the middle
30s, overnight lows are expected to drop into the 30s across the
higher elevations and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.
Freeze warnings have been issued for Pocahontas and Randolph
counties in West Virginia, and frost advisories have also been
issued in the mountains bordering those counties. Please
remember to protect sensitive vegetation from the cold
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

This weekend, models are showing an upper-level low over the Great
Lakes, another low pressure system over the southeast coastline, and
a large area of high pressure over Bermuda. These two areas of low
pressure should have minimal impact on the weather across our area,
with most of the precipitation expected to be well east and north of
our area. However, slight chance PoPs are currently being forecast
Sunday across the northeast as the coastal low strengthens and moves
northward over the mid-Atlantic.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1209 PM Thursday...

The long-term forecast period looks quiet as high pressure dominates
the weather pattern. A large upper-level ridge will be parked over
the south central US for the early to middle part of next week
with quiet weather expected over the middle Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians. Temperatures should be seasonable to
slightly above average for mid-October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 652 PM Thursday...

Mostly VFR conditions under clear skies this evening and into
the early nocturne hours. Winds are mostly light and out of the
ENE. A slight pressure gradient will allow for some breezy
SE`rly winds across the mountain ridges later on tonight through
tomorrow morning with gusts between 10 and 20 knots being
possible at times.

Some patchy fog will be possible again tonight, particularly in
the northeastern mountain/river valleys. EKN may see IFR or
lower restrictions as a result. Not expecting much in the way of
restrictions elsewhere. Any fog will lift and scatter by ~13-14z
Friday giving way to more VFR conditions with SKC at most sites.
Winds will be mostly light and SE`rly, but could be breezy at
times.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be more widespread than advertised
tonight if locations decouple quick enough.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
At least patchy IFR valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ039-040-516-
     518>522.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ523>526.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ066.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...LTC/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...LTC