221
FXUS61 KRLX 181020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
620 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves hovers to our south today, then another
slowly pushes through Wednesday and Thursday. A much stronger
cold front arrives next weekend, bringing significantly cooler
air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

An exiting cold front will hover to our south for this period
and may promote some shower or storm activity across the
mountains. This would be isolated in nature and shouldn`t pose
any threats other than lightning if a storm does come to
fruition.

Otherwise, the rest of the are remains dry with slightly lower
temperatures than the previous day where it will be difficult
to break the 90 degree mark today, but the best location to
potentially accomplish this feat will be around the Tri-state
area. Heat indexes will remain below advisory criteria and
overnight temperatures will bottom out at low to mid 60s under
mostly clear skies and weak surface flow.

By this afternoon any clouds should clear out except for the
mountains so even though there will be plenty of sunshine cold
air advection due to northerly flow will keep the temperatures
down some.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 PM Sunday...

A high pressure system will be anchored over the northeastern
United States on Tuesday. This will allow for mostly dry weather
and hot afternoon temperatures, with most of the lowlands
reaching into the 90s.

A cold front will then very slowly push southeastward late Tuesday
night through Thursday, providing for a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1155 PM Sunday...

A cold front will finally push south of the area by late
Thursday, but questions remain as to how much moisture is left
behind the front and whether there is enough for showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains on Friday.

A strong cold front will then push through over the weekend,
providing a significant change in temperatures for the end of the
weekend and into the beginning of the next work week. There is some
disagreement on the timing of the front between the models, but the
models agree in the significantly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 AM Monday...

Any clouds and valley fog will clear out by 13-14Z and clouds
will continue to exit and open up for mainly clear skies during
the afternoon. VFR will dominate until tonight when once again
valley fog has a good chance at forming. Weak northerly wind
will become calm tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VIS/CIGs may vary in fog this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

IFR possible in river valley fog most mornings the rest of the
work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ