730
FXUS61 KRLX 180613
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The main forecast is on track and no significant changes were
made at this time. Did however lower dewpoints as central
guidance was coming in a bit higher than most other guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorm potential today with a slight risk
across much of the area. The main threat will be damaging wind
although we cannot rule out all hazards.

2) Improvement in smoke and air quality is anticipated by late
afternoon. Parts of West Virginia will be under the threat
until tonight at midnight.

3) Improvements to weather by late Sunday then another
potential threat of severe weather by Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Today much of the area will under a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms with the rest of the area toward the south under
a marginal threat. Also a marginal threat for excessive rainfall
is across the entire area. The main hazards are damaging wind
and possible flash flooding, however we cannot rule out the
rest of the hazards as a slight possibility as well.

This threat is due to an upper level trough with multiple
shortwaves forecast to move through the base of the trough
today and Sunday. A surface front will traverse north through
the area and keep us in a destabilized warm sector for which
severe weather will be possible this afternoon and evening.

Strong low level flow will promote organized cells or clusters
capable of damaging wind and with enough MUCAPE and EBWD along
with a large hail parameter of 4.0 or greater will also promote
isolated small to possibly large hail under a supercell,
however with freezing levels above 15k feet it will be hard for
any other storms to produce hail before it melts toward the
surface.

A tornado threat will also exist with enough EBWD, helicity,
low 100mb mean parcel LCLs and enough CAPE with the lack of CIN
depending on storm-mode evolution. The EBWD is slightly lower
than criteria, however this will mean that the threat is very low
at this time. There is a threat across the northern panhandle of
West Virginia and slightly touches our Perry County in Ohio.
The threat could be nudged further south and into our area later
in the day.

Another threat will be possible flash flooding with PWATs
anomalously high getting into the maximum for climatology or 3
standard deviations above normal for the region and efficient
DCAPE values along with the potential for downbursts. Heavy
downpours will be likely be in stronger thunderstorm activity
which will likely create some instances of flash flooding,
especially in low lying or flood prone areas or if training or
backbuilding occurs although steering flow should be modest
enough to keep the threat isolated in nature.

A wave of convection is forcast by Hi-res models early
afternoon and then again by the evening as a cold front shifts
southward into the area and continues to move south throughout
the day and exits by slightly after midnight tonight. Embedded
storms along a broken line of convection is forecast by Hi-res
models by this late evening, however due to earlier convection
and cloud coverage a lot of fuel will be lost, especially due
to the timing after sunset. However, with modest shear and upper
level dynamics will support clusters of strong to severe storms
possible along this line with the possibility of an isolated
supercell. Steering flow will be slightly weaker by this
evening, therefore flash flooding will still be a possibility.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Improvement from the smoke and haze will likely come to
fruition by the late afternoon as the wildfire smoke from
Canada will shift northward according to the HRRR smoke model.
Parts of north central West Virginia are still in an Air
Quality alert until tonight at midnight.

West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection - Air
Quality Division has issued a Code Orange Air Quality Action
Day for Fine Particulates for West Virgina.

A code Orange air quality alert means members of sensitive
groups may experience health effects. The general public is
less likely to be affected, but sensitive groups should take
additional precautions. These groups include children, the
elderly, and people suffering from asthma, heart disease, or
other lung diseases. The effects of air pollution can be
minimized by avoiding outdoor exercise or strenuous activity.

For more information check the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency`s www.AirNow.gov website for current air monitor
readings.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

More potential for thunderstorms will reside on Sunday, however
coverage will be a lot less for the area as unsettled weather
exits for the rest of Sunday and settled weather will continue
into the new work week. Temperatures will moderate down to
about seasonable or below for today and Sunday and even continue
through the new work week.

Another broad upper level trough is expected to affect the area
by Tuesday with numerous short waves passing through. A
stronger cold front will likely create the possibility of severe
weather and SPC does have us in a slight risk of 15%
probability across much of the area for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A little bit of valley fog will get into the terminals this
morning, however smoke will bring CKB/PKB down to IFR at times
and will predominately be MVFR throughout the period. Any fog
dissipates by 13Z, however the smoke and haze will affect the
aforementioned sites throughout the afternoon then slowly
improving as the smoke drifts northward. Several rounds of
thunderstorm activity can be expected today starting early this
afternoon and then again later in the evening as a cold front
moves through the area and exits after midnight to the south.
Periods of MVFR or worse restrictions to VIS are possibly under
heavy showers, but the main threat today will be damaging wind
which is possible at virtually every site as severe weather is
possible today. Winds will remain southwesterly and elevated
today with gusty wind expected this afternoon. A wind shift
out of the northwest will likely take place late this evening
as the cold front shifts southward through the area.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage this morning may vary. Storm
coverage today may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 07/18/26
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    H    H    L    M    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Sunday/Monday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-029>032-039-040.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ