333
FXUS61 KRLX 290000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front approaches tonight into Friday bringing a
chance for light rain, mainly to the north. Otherwise, dry
conditions continue through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...

Have made one more update to PoPs to better encompass ongoing
light showers. Still anticipate coverage to diminish in advance
of a front overnight.

As of 630 PM Thursday...

Light rain is progressing east across portions of the area this
evening. Have updated PoPs to reflect current coverage and
expected progression of precipitation tonight.

As of 1214 PM Thursday...

A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this
evening. It will be starved for moisture, and the only chance of
rain will be across the far north as the front tracks eastward. PoPs
have been limited to just slight chances across northern West
Virginia and southeast Ohio this afternoon and this evening due to
the very dry low-level airmass.

This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop
very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will
drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early
evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front.

Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs
ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the
lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday...

More of the same tranquil weather is expected this weekend with
highs generally remaining a few degrees below average. Prior model
runs showed some upper-level ridging over the middle Ohio Valley by
Sunday; however, recent model runs show little change in the upper-
level height pattern over the northeastern United States, leading to
cooler than average weather for much of the Northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday...

Cool, dry and tranquil weather will likely continue Monday and
Tuesday next week. There is some growing model agreement that
another significant cold front and upper-level trough will approach
the eastern U.S. by the middle or late portion of next week. This
could bring some much needed precipitation to the area, but there is
still plenty of model inconsistency regarding the timing and amount
of any precip. The best chance looks to be Thursday or Friday with
the passage of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Thursday...

Ongoing light rain will continue to move east ahead of a cold
front tonight. Sub-VFR conditions will then be possible, mainly
for the northern terminals, due to lowering ceilings and some
patches of fog late tonight into Friday morning. VFR flight
conditions are anticipated to return by the afternoon and then
persist or the rest of the TAF period, while the front slowly
sinks to the southeast.

Winds will be calm to light and variable overnight, then become
light to moderate during the day with 15-20kt gusts possible
along the mountains Friday afternoon. The wind direction is also
expected to turn northwesterly behind the front.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration of light rain and extent of
fog/stratus tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/29/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in patchy river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 48 degrees was set at Huntington,
WV today. This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1986.

A record low temperature of 45 degrees was tied at Parkersburg,
WV today, matching the old record set in 1986.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/JMC
NEAR TERM...20/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...20

CLIMATE...