524
FXUS61 KRLX 170804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
404 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy downpours and flood potential continue today into
Wednesday with another upper level disturbance. Strong cold
front increases the severe potential for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Flood Watch in effect from late morning through this evening.
* Isolated storms could produce damaging winds this afternoon
  or evening.

While southwest flow strengthens ahead of a shortwave trough,
warm and moisture rich air will continue to feed into the area
and support rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the day
today. Activity should then persist into the night as the
shortwave pivots overhead.

While lapse rates may be marginal, enough shear and instability
should be present to support a few strong to severe storms this
afternoon into the evening. A marginal risk of severe weather
has been highlighted for portions of northeastern West Virginia,
where isolated storms could produce locally damaging winds.

Precipitable water values will again exceed 1.5 inches, and may
even surpass 2 inches in some areas. While storms should not be
particularly slow moving, heavy downpours may prompt flooding
in locations that have already been saturated by recent heavy
rain. A Flood Watch has been issued for the entire area from
late morning through this evening.

high temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s in the
lowlands and 70s to low 80s along the mountains today. Lows for
tonight remain mild, likely ranging from 60 to 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

Showers and storms will continue as an H500 shortwave lifts
northeast over our area on Wednesday. Afternoon heating will enhance
storm coverage and intensity under abundant low level moisture.
Under a moist and unstable environment with poor deep layered shear,
isolated strong to severe storms may develop. SPC maintains a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds will
be the main threat.

With soils across the area are saturated per previous rainfall. It
will take less rain to produce water issues. Therefore, the flash
flood threat can not be rule out if a location receives heavy or
repetitive downpours. However, storm activity should move faster
than previous days allowing to spread rainfall along their path.

A cold front arrives Thursday morning while a stronger H500 trough
pushes east. With similar unstable environment and an uptick in deep
layered shear exceeding 40 knots, better chances for severe
thunderstorms may occur mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours. SPC continues with a marginal risk for severe storms for
Thursday, with a damaging wind threat looking to be most likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

Forecast weather charts show a surface high pressure building over
the area Friday into the weekend. This high, will provide dry
weather conditions and a warming trend into the beginning of next
week. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s
across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s northeast
mountains for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

A mix of MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected to occur at times due
to pockets of fog, low stratus, and continued rounds of rain
showers early this morning. While fog will erode after
sunrise, periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions remain possible for the
bulk of the TAF period as a disturbance brings additional
showers and storms through the area.

Calm to light winds become southwesterly during the day, with
some gusts into the teens possible during the afternoon.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could also produce
strong gusty winds during the afternoon and evening. Winds start
to ease and turn southerly late in the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally dense fog possible wherever the
sky becomes sufficiently clear overnight. Timing and intensity
of showers/storms may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 06/17/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through mid week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy fog or low stratus Wednesday and
Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening
     for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...20