076
FXUS61 KRLX 302303
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
703 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather prevails for most for the end of the weekend into
next week. A few afternoon showers/storms possible Sunday across
the Greenbrier Valley. Better rain chances arrive mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

Chamber of Commerce weather is underway across the forecast area
today amid a dome of high pressure slipping down from the Great
Lakes region. This feature will continue to yield mostly dry
weather and unseasonably cooler weather for today. Satellite
imagery at the time of writing depicts some cumulus fields
beginning to develop in southeastern West Virginia and streaming
to the southeast as northwesterly winds push them away from the
forecast area. Otherwise, little to no clouds will be observed
here this afternoon. Daytime heating will encourage temperatures
today to crest in the upper 70s across the lowlands and 60s
along the higher terrain.

Quiet weather stretches into the overnight hours, with another
decent night for radiational cooling noted on forecast soundings
amid clear skies and calm surface winds. Went a touch colder
in the sheltered mountain valleys for Sunday in similar fashion
to lows experienced earlier this morning. River valley fog will
also be present once again for the Tygart Valley, Kanawha, and
Ohio River basins.

Weak shortwave energy trekking into the area on Sunday will impose
some afternoon showers and thunderstorms during peak heating
hours. This is anticipated to occur across our southeastern
zones shortly after 1 PM within towering cumulus and will be
strongly dependent upon diurnal heating, resulting in weakening
activity quickly in the evening. Dry weather will continue to
flourish across our northern half of the forecast area on
Sunday, with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures in the low
80s (lowlands) and low 70s (mountains).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

Afternoon showers and storms along the southeastern West
Virginia mountains wrap up quickly Sunday evening as high
pressure takes center stage over the Great Lakes region.
Leftover moisture from the day will work in tandem with
overnight radiational cooling to once again encourage river
valley fog to open up the work week.

Otherwise, strong subsidence provided by the nearby high will
yield mostly dry weather to hang about on Monday. This feature
does begin to nudge to the east on Tuesday ahead of a
disturbance that will make its appearance in the long term
forecast period. Increased cloudiness and light showers will
first be noted in the southwestern coalfields during the day
Tuesday before growing in earnest heading into midweek.

Daytime high temperatures will topple back into the low 80s
across the Tri-State area for Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but
remain just under normal readings for this time of year as we
kick off the start of Meteorological Fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

After a stretch of dry weather, we should begin to see the
forecast enter a more active state around midweek as a series of
frontal boundaries drop down from Canada. This will force the
dome of high pressure that had taken claim over the Ohio Valley
for the start of the week to now shift off the eastern seaboard.
In response, low level flow will begin to veer out of a
southerly direction and will usher in moisture from the Deep
South. Low end chances for precipitation infiltrate our western
flank of the forecast area Tuesday evening and will spread
eastward and increase in potential heading into midweek.

The first cold front is currently slated to slide across the
country on Thursday, which will impose heightened precipitation
chances before its eventual departure diminishes showers and
embedded thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday. A
secondary frontal boundary sails down from the northwest late
in the long term period, which will bring cooler temperatures
for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM Saturday...

Locally dense fog is expected to develop in some of the river
valleys overnight due to clear skies and calm to light surface
flow. Confidence in a period of IFR/LIFR conditions is greatest
for EKN and CRW after 06Z, though fog could also produce brief
restrictions at PKB before sunrise.

Erosion of fog will allow VFR to return early Sunday morning,
with the bulk of the area remaining dry and VFR amid light east
to northeast winds through the end of the TAF period; however,
a few showers or storms could form along the mountains and
potentially impact BKW during the afternoon. For now, the
probability of precipitation remains low enough to leave
mention out of the BKW TAF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of overnight fog may vary from the
forecast. An shower or storm could impact BKW Sunday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in dense river valley fog Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 46 degrees was set at Parkersburg,
WV today. This breaks the old record of 47 degrees set in 1986.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...20

CLIMATE...GW