472
FXUS61 KRLX 180032
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
832 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy downpours and flood potential gradually wave tonight, as
another disturbance crosses the area. Strong cold front
increases the severe potential for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms were producing heavy downpours, but
movement was quick enough and coverage sparse enough to preclude
flash flooding so far. Temperatures and dew points were on
track on another very warm and humid evening.

As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Flood Watch in effect through this evening.
* Isolated storms could produce damaging winds this afternoon
  or evening.

Mainly isolated showers and a few storms have developed
throughout the past few hours across the region, but fortunately
they have been moving faster than recent days, so no hydro
issues as of yet. Shower and storm activity is expected to
blossom as we go through the afternoon and into the evening, so
increased coverage could lead to a greater risk of training
storms, and more intense rainfall is likely, as well. It`s hard
right now to pinpoint any one area for flooding potential, as
activity may not be focused in any one area, and it likely will
be conditional on if some areas can get training or hit multiple
times. Additionally, WPC and much of the guidance did bump down
the QPF somewhat over the area, so it`s possible we may largely
miss out on flooding this time around.

A marginal risk of severe weather has been highlighted for
portions of northeastern West Virginia, where isolated storms
could produce locally damaging winds. However, it will be mainly
be a concern if storms can get enough vertical growth, or if we
can get some clustering of storms to occur. Otherwise, shear is
paltry, so it will be hard to get much in the way of
organization or sustained activity.

Beyond the flooding concerns, it will remain warm and humid
through tomorrow. Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s will
keep overnight lows very mild tonight, and SW`ly winds and some
patchy sunshine tomorrow will push highs into the mid-80s for
most of the lowlands, and into the 70s for the mountains. Heat
index values are forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather pattern, with a warm and humid air mass in place,
continues in the short term period.  Wednesday evening into
Thursday, an upper trough, will push east through the area, with the
frontal boundary that has been located to our north and west,
finally sweeping through the area. Severe weather may be possible
during this period, and spc already has parts of the area
highlighted for Wednesday night and Thursday, with a damaging wind
threat looking to be most likely. Models tend to differ a bit with
the timing of the frontal passage, and a slower timing to the
front/more into the afternoon hours would likely result in a greater
threat for severe on Thursday afternoon than is currently
highlighted. For now, SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk,
with the slight risk located to our east Thursday, with a marginal
risk Wednesday night from any lingering convection that develops to
our west on Wednesday evening and makes its way eastward into our
area. Damaging winds are the primary hazard.

Overall drier weather is expected later Thursday and Friday behind
the departing system, however, occasional light showers cannot be
completely ruled out as additional weak shortwaves cross the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Mainly dry and increasingly hot this weekend into early next week
with a building upper ridge across the eastern U.S. By early next
week, daytime high temperatures should reach the mid 90s across much
of the lowlands. This combined with dew points in the 70s, will
result in heat indices likely hitting advisory criteria Sunday
through Tuesday. An isolated shower or storm is possible during the
afternoons during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms moving through the area this evening
may impact TAF sites with MVFR to brief IFR conditions, along
with gusty winds. This would most likely impact CKB with a
lesser chance EKN and BKW, and nothing more than MVFR showers
elsewhere, PKB, HTS and CRW, through 02-03Z tonight.

The chance for rain diminishes overnight, but MVFR stratocu is
likely to form overnight, and lower to IFR stratus northern
sites PKB, CKB and perhaps EKN during the daylight morning hours
Wednesday. The stratus and stratocumulus lifts into a VFR
cumulus field Wednesday afternoon. There is the chance for a
shower or early afternoon thunderstorm Wednesday.

Light south to southwest surface flow tonight into Wednesday
morning should be enough to preclude much in the way of fog
formation overnight, and will become a bit gusty from the
southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Flow aloft will be light to
moderate southwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/storms and
resultant impacts on CIGs/VSBY may vary, particularly this
evening and on Wednesday. There may be a bit more overnight fog
formation than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. Locally heavy rain Thursday afternoon could
yield patchy fog or low stratus Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM