414
FXUS61 KRLX 101414
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
914 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A switch up to start the new work week as a strong low pressure
system brings cold, blustery, and snowy conditions to our area.
Many will see their first accumulating snow of the season today
as winter weather headlines remain in effect.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM Monday...

Forecast is largely on track with mainly cellular snow showers
across much of the forecast area with a clearing line just
working into our northern counties at this hour associated with
a northerly wind shift. With decent early November sun angle,
roadway impacts through early afternoon should be minimal with
the aforementioned cellular showers.

With filtered insolation coupled with H500 temperatures near
minus 40C rotating overhead later this afternoon/evening,
expect stout snow showers/snow squalls to develop, with
especially persistent showers near the front edge of surface
convergence associated with the aforementioned wind shift.
While ground temperatures are quite warm (49F at 4" at the
office), high snowfall rates coupled with loss of help of the
sun by late this afternoon into early this evening could allow
roadway skin temperatures to drop below freezing, especially on
more exposed surfaces like bridges and overpasses. While current
warnings and advisories look to adequately cover this threat,
some locally higher snow amounts will be possible in the
advisory area if this enhanced band lingers, even briefly over
any given spot. While aforementioned ground temperatures may
otherwise limit issuance of snow squall warnings, a few targeted
snow squall warnings for major travel routes may become
warranted for the evening rush hour.

As of 700 AM Monday...

Increased PoPs with a more substantial snow band moving through
the Metro Valley at this hour. Will extend this band south
through at least late this morning.

As of 542 AM Monday...

Forecast remains on track. Waves of moderate to heavy snow are
moving across the region just as temperatures are falling below
freezing. Accumulations will remain on elevated or grassy
surfaces at first, but eventually roads will start to become
covered making travel hazardous.

Added a few more counties in West Virginia and Kentucky to the
winter weather advisory as amounts have come up slightly across
the western counties. 1-3" will be the most common range for
these newly added counties, depending on where the bands set up.

As of 200 AM Monday...

A strong 500mb low and trough will continue to plunge south out
of The Great Lakes region today, eventually passing through or
just south of our forecast area. A change up on the order of
cold, blustery, and snowy conditions will be on the menu for
the near term as a result of this beast of a system.
Subsequently, the first winter weather headlines of the winter
season are in effect.

Expanded the winter storm warning to cover more locations across
the higher terrain of the mountains and Upshur County. Latest
QPF upticks and models showing prominent banding across these
areas have lead to an increase in snow totals. 4 to 8 inches
will be likely in and around the northeastern mountains.
Locally higher amounts and areas of patchy blowing snow will be
possible too. Also, expanded the winter weather advisory to
cover Ritchie, Putnam, and Wirt counties. 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall will be common in counties with an advisory.
Elsewhere, mostly 1 to 2 inches of snow will be picked up.

At this hour, temperatures have dropped into the upper 20s and
30s across the area. Most locations are reporting a full
transition over to snow. Some rain/snow mix is persisting
across the Metro Valley and Tri-State Area as temperatures are
still above 34-35 degrees in these locations. A lull in activity
is being reported across our Ohio counties and portions of the
Ohio River Valley.

A decent band of snowfall will drop south and push across our
area towards daybreak with temperatures further falling below
freezing. These low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and
lower 30s for the lowlands, with mostly 20s across the
mountains. A flash freeze will ensue creating slick surfaces and
some quick snow accumulations. This will be a nuisance to the
morning commute without a doubt.

High temperatures will be achieved early this afternoon
depending on extent of cloud cover with 20s and 30s forecasted
across much of the area. Portions of the lowlands are forecasted
to rise slightly above freezing. Westerly to northwesterly winds
will be gusty today with gusts between 25 and 40 mph being
common across the area. Locally higher gusts will be possible
across the higher elevations, where wind chills will likely be
in the teens and single digits.

Nonetheless, intermittent snowfall continues through the
morning into the afternoon, but models show a secondary wave of
moderate to heavy snowfall that manifests across our area this
afternoon and moves west to east through the late afternoon and
evening hours. This will line up with the low passing over or
just south of our area. This will be when a large chunk or of
the forecasted snowfall totals will be picked up across the
area as temperatures drop below freezing with the passage of
this low.

Snowfall continues this evening and overnight as temperatures
fall into the lower 20s and teens across the area. Snowfall will
be moderate to heavy, especially across the mountains as a
gradual tapering off from west to east occurs going into
Tuesday, skewing the snow showers across the mountains and
northern lowlands. Gusty winds continue with the higher
elevations seeing wind chills in the single and negative digits.
Currently, wind chills remain below criteria, but it is possible
that cold weather headlines may be needed if things change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Monday...

Snowfall will continue to taper off across the mountains Tuesday
morning with additional light accumulations possible. Winds will
remain gusty into the afternoon, but will be on decreasing trend
on the back side of the departing low as a southwesterly shift
occurs. Areas of patchy blowing snow will be likely across the
higher elevations of the mountains. Temperatures remain cold,
but not quite as cold as Monday, with highs in the lowlands
reaching the mid 30s and lower 40s, the mountains will stay in
the mid 20s and 30s.

Wednesday showcases a bit of a warm up with the lowlands jumping
back into the 50s thanks to increasing southwesterly flow. Drier
weather also looks to move back in. A passing shortwave will
create some gusty conditions which could rival winds associated
with Monday`s system. Future wind headlines may be needed if
wind gusts continue to trend upwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Drier weather and a warming trend will be the mainstay for the
beginning of the long term period. High pressure to our south
will keep a stout ridge over our area through Thursday night.
Tight pressure gradient aloft will create gusty winds along the
higher terrain, but surface high pressure will keep winds light
down in the lowlands.

A passing disturbance brushes the area on Friday bringing
chances for rain Friday and Saturday, but models are not
confident in this solution so changes could be possible. A
warming trend will be in full swing this weekend with the
lowlands rising in to the 60s Friday through Sunday.

A trough and low pressure center looks to form across the
southern plains and move up into our area beginning of next
week. Rain chances have been added to the forecast as a result,
but details are not hashed out yet due to models being in
disagreement for timing and location.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 537 AM Monday...

Snow showers will continue, moderate to heavy at times, through
the mid morning hours before some locations see a bit of a
break. MVFR conditions will likely persist though.

A heavier band of snowfall is expected to move through later in
the afternoon into the evening hours resulting in IFR or lower
conditions for many locations, especially in the mountains at
BKW and EKN. Snow showers will gradually become skewed to the
mountains tonight into Tuesday morning. MVFR and IFR
restrictions will likely persist.

Winds will be W or WNW and gusty through the period. Sustained
winds will likely be between 10-15 knots, with gusts between
20-35 knots. Locally higher gusts will be possible across the
higher ridges of the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/location of restrictions in low
ceilings and snow showers may vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    L    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Tuesday morning in occasional snow
showers, especially across the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ005>008-
     013>020-024>034-040-515>517.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ039-518>523-
     525-526.
OH...None.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ102-103-
     105.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC