097
FXUS61 KRLX 151750
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving, heavy rain showers and storms will continue
through early next week. Localized flooding possible. Flow
begins to strengthen mid to late week with an uptick in severe
potential.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

Key Points:

* Warm, moist airmass with limited, but deep instability yields
  efficient and heavy rainfall.

* Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding possible through
  tonight

* Isolated instances of significant flash flooding are possible with
  loitering or multiple instances of heavy downpours, highest risk
  near the higher terrain

* Limited risk for severe weather outside of flooding, although some
  locally gusty winds could cause tree damage with any convection

A weak upper level low as opened up into a wave and is slowly
working its away across the region this afternoon. The atmosphere
remains primed to produce efficient and heavy rainfall with
precipitable water values 1.7 to nearly 2.0 inches, deep warm cloud
depths, deep, but skinny instability profiles and H700 steering flow
of generally less than 10KTs. Although much weaker than progged
yesterday due to the weakening low circulation, a ~10KT feed of
additional low level moisture on a north-northwesterly trajectory is
also feeding into the higher terrain from the Atlantic Coastal Plain.

A combination of filtered insolation, weak vorticity maxima
transiting the area, and upslope flow will provide the focus for
deep moist convection through the remainder of the afternoon and
into the early overnight. Rainfall rates of generally 1-2" per hour
are expected with this activity, with locally higher rates possible
in collapsing cores. Several locations across the region have been
hit with heavy rainfall in preceding days with a patchwork of 1hr
flash flood guidance values from less than 1 inch up to around 2
inches. In the mountains, where there is a maxima of overlap between
the aforementioned factors for heavy rain, some pockets of 6hr flash
flood guidance are as low as 2 inches. Expect several instances of
lower end flash flooding this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
instances of significant flooding are also possible if heavy rain
either dwells over an individual spot, occurs multiple times over an
individual spot, or a core collapse occurs after an individual spot
has already received some heavy rain. While not quite as robust as
yesterday due to the weakening H850 flow, HREF 6hr probability
matched means do still show some bullets of 3-4" of rain in the 18-
00Z window this afternoon into this evening along the higher
terrain. A flash flood watch remains in effect through tonight for
much of the area.

With a weakly sheared column, not expecting severe thunderstorms
through this evening, but sub-severe thunderstorm winds near any
collapsing cells could still cause some tree damage, especially in
area with very wet soils.

Should see activity progressively wane through the overnight as we
lose heating, but any weak vort maxima would likely sustain at least
some scattered heavy rain producing convection into the overnight.

While the column will remain very moist with weak flow on Monday,
the lack of appreciable forcing should serve to limit convection to
diurnally enhanced activity. This activity will still be capable of
producing heavy rainfall rates, and will have some potential to
backbuild off the higher terrain. Depending on how compromised the
soils become with activity tonight, this may justify another flash
flood watch given potential large impact of high rates on these
compromised soils even with coverage being fairly limited. At this
time, don`t have the confidence level to pull the trigger on this,
but it will continue to be evaluated as tonight`s heavy rain unfolds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

Unsettled weather pattern continues in the short term period.
Frontal boundary should generally be north of the CWA at the start
of the period, with a warm and humid air mass in place. A shortwave
will lift northeast through the area Tuesday. An increase in
southerly flow out ahead of the wave will result in a renewed surge
of moisture to the area, with PWATs possibly topping 2 inches.
Storms should overall move a little better on Tuesday with a slight
uptick in steering flow, however, will continue to need to monitor
the situation for flooding issues, especially if Sunday and Monday
result in widespread areas of rainfall. In addition, there is the
possibility for an isolated strong to severe storm on Tuesday, due
to increasing shear and steep low level lapse rates. Greatest hazard
Tuesday would be a damaging wind threat.

Aforementioned shortwave will lift to the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. However, additional showers and storms can be
expected on Wednesday during peak heating hours in the warm, humid,
unstable conditions, and as multiple disturbances move through the
flow at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

On Thursday, an upper trough, will push east through the area, with
the frontal boundary that has been located to our north, finally
sweeping through the area. Severe weather may be possible during
this period, and spc already has parts of the area highlighted for
Thursday, with a damaging wind threat looking to be most likely.
Overall drier weather is expected Friday and Saturday behind the
departing system, however, occasional light showers cannot be
completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through
this evening at all terminals. These will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain which could reduce visibility briefly to IFR.
Storm motion is out of the is out of the west-southwest around 10KT
with some potential for training, this could yield a longer duration
impact of heavy rain at any given terminal than is typical. Given
the nature of these storms, it is hard to adequately address with
the TAFs, for now will cover with a mix of predominate VFR SHRA VCTS
with IFR TEMPOs for TSRA.

More widespread precipitation becomes isolated to scattered
overnight. IFR ceilings are expected to develop in the wake of this
activity which should help to limit the formation of any more
widespread dense fog, but some patchy dense fog will be possible,
especially where significant rainfall occurs tonight.

Winds generally light favoring a southwesterly direction, except
gusty and erratic near any convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and magnitude of impacts from
convection may vary from the forecast. Locally dense fog
possible overnight where any heavy rain falls.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in rounds of showers and thunderstorms
into next week. Locally heavy rain during the afternoons and
evenings could yield patchy dense overnight fog each night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ006>011-013>020-
     026>032-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ067-075-076-
     085>087.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP