704
FXUS61 KRLX 081855
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Unsettled pattern is expected to persist through the work week.
A brief dry period may be possible this weekend, though there is
uncertainty as to how long it may last before another system
arrives early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled pattern continues this week with daily chances
of rain and storms amid heat and humidity, and as a couple of
disturbances pass by. Repetitive or training storms could prompt
some flash flooding.

2) Heat safety will be important amid a prolonged stretch of
hot and humid weather this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening, with the bulk of activity occurring
across southern and western portions of the area in the vicinity
of a frontal boundary. Activity may briefly lessen overnight,
then additional showers and storms develop as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west early Tuesday. This trough should
support more widespread activity as it crosses the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

While widespread severe weather is not expected, there is a
risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the area both
today and Tuesday as moderate to heavy downpours in slow-moving
or training storms could lead to flash flooding.

Precipitation chances linger as a shortwave crosses on
Wednesday, then then weak ridging or zonal flow briefly takes
hold for Thursday. Increased instability amid hot and humid
conditions should once again facilitate development of showers
and storms, primarily during peak heating hours Thursday
afternoon and evening. A front is then projected to move through
the region late in the work week, prompting yet another
opportunity for more widespread showers and storms.

Forecast models seem to be in agreement over a drier start to
the weekend, but do not agree on how long the dry spell would
last before the next system arrives sometime next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A stretch of hot and humid weather is expected through the
week, with daily high temperatures reaching 80s to low 90s in
the lowlands and dewpoints generally ranging from 60s to 70s.

The combination of heat and humidity may propel apparent, or
"feels-like," temperatures into the mid to upper 90s in the
lowlands, though precipitation may help lessen the heat risk at
times. As of now, Thursday is projected to be the most favorable
day of the week for apparent temperatures to reach upper 90s,
and potentially even breech triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of the area should remain VFR amid a field of 4-5kft
cumulus; however, periodic restrictions will be possible in
scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Low
clouds may develop along the mountains overnight while the rest
of the area should remain VFR. Sub-VFR CIGs/VIS are then
expected to become more prevalent as a disturbance brings more
rain and storms into the area early Tuesday.

Winds generally remain light and southerly into tonight, though
storms could prompt stronger gusts at times. Flow gradually
increases early Tuesday with 15 to 20 kt gusts becoming possible
during the morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms may be more
extensive than forecast this afternoon and evening. Timing and
coverage of additional precipitation overnight and Tuesday may
vary from the forecast. Patchy fog could also be possible
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR visibility possible in thunderstorms each
day and even at night throughout this week. Episodes of late
night and early morning IFR or worse fog are also possible this
week, largely dependent upon where rainfall occurs.

&&

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLIMATE...TRM