656
FXUS61 KRLX 160038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
738 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain returns along a cold front overnight, perhaps with a rumble
of thunder. Turning much colder and windier Sunday through
Monday. Additional chances for precipitation return on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 735 PM Saturday...

No major changes were made to the forecast. Some showers appear
to be moving into Perry County as of press time, which is right
on schedule with when we had POPs over 40% moving in there.
Combined with the fact that the latest 1-hour NBM and short-
range consensus POPs look pretty similar to what`s currently in
the forecast grids, there doesn`t seem to be a need to reinvent
that wheel. Main tweaks were just to adjust T/Td/RH over the
next few hours to account for current conditions and trends.
Thus far the shower activity over eastern and central Ohio has
been underwhelming, with only a few scattered lightning strikes
noted over the past half hour. We`ll see if the activity
increases much, if at all, but for now we`ll maintain the low-
end thunder chances tonight ahead of and with the front.


As of 1132 AM Saturday...

Showers are expected today as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. There is currently a marginal threat for severe weather
in place today, and the best chance of that seems to be late in the
afternoon and into the evening hours, mainly confined to northern
areas of West Virginia and portions of southeast Ohio. Although
shear is expected to be plentiful (60-75 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear),
instability will be minimal (200-400 J/kg of MLCAPE). The best
instability will be located farther to the north. The main concern
today would be localized damaging wind gusts as stronger winds from
aloft mix down to the surface during any showers.

The cold front will cross areawide overnight, leaving cooler
conditions in its wake. Overnight lows will be in the 40s areawide,
and Sunday`s highs will only be in the lower to middle 50s.

A wind advisory will be in effect for the higher elevations of
Pocahontas and Randolph counties beginning this evening and lasting
through Monday morning. Expect winds to occasionally gust to 50 mph
during this period as low pressure creates a tight isobaric gradient
over the middle Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Across the lowlands,
breezy conditions will persist into Sunday with occasional gusts 20-
30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1132 AM Saturday...

Cold weather will return Sunday night with overnight lows in the 20s
and lower 30s. Dry weather is expected Monday with high pressure
briefly in control. A weak 500-mb vort max will approach from the
west Tuesday morning, bringing the next widespread chance of
precipitation. A period of wintry precipitation is possible Tuesday
morning across the higher elevations and northern portions of the
area, especially before sunrise. However, the air throughout the
entire lower column should warm by mid Tuesday morning, changing any
wintry precipitation over to rain for most of Tuesday. The only
exception will be for locations over 3,500 feet, where snow may mix
with rain throughout much of the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1132 AM Saturday...

Weak energy lingering in the mid-level flow will keep rain chances
in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, although it will not rain
the entire time during this period. Models are coming into better
agreement that another more significant system will approach from
the west Friday into Saturday, bringing another round of rain and
wind.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail initially, but as a cold front sweeps
southeast across the CWA between now and 09z, MVFR to locally
IFR ceilings are expected to accompany any showers and storms,
and in some spots linger a bit after they pass. There may be
some thunderstorms ahead of and with the front, which could
produce even more gusty winds, so we have TEMPO groups at each
site attempting to best time the t-storm potential, with VRB
winds gusting to 30 or 35kts. Once the front clears through, sky
conditions should improve within a few hours at most sites, with
VFR expected everywhere by around 12z, though the upslope flow
may allow some clouds to linger along the mountains into the
daytime hours.

Gusty SW`ly winds persist area-wide this evening, with gusts of
20-25kts common, and these will continue through frontal
passage, when they will veer more W`ly and then NW`ly behind the
front. Winds may diminish a bit later tonight into early Sun
morning behind the front, but with clearing skies and mixing
expected, gusts ramp back up into the 20-25kt range again
tomorrow (and possibly higher in spots). LLWS is possible over
much of the area through around 06z, with LLWS chances dropping
off behind the front.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of reduced ceilings and
visibility with showers or storms along the cold front tonight
may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR ceilings possible with the weather system expected on
Tuesday. IFR visibility possible early Tuesday in any areas that
begin as snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/26
NEAR TERM...FK/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...FK