721
FXUS61 KRLX 281634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1234 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, moisture-starved cold front approaches tonight into
Friday bringing a chance for an isolated shower north.
Otherwise, dry conditons continue through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Thursday...

A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this
evening. It will be starved for moisture, and the only chance of
rain will be across the far north as the front tracks eastward. PoPs
have been limited to just slight chances across northern West
Virginia and southeast Ohio this afternoon and this evening due to
the very dry low-level airmass.

This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop
very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will
drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early
evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front.

Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs
ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the
lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday...

More of the same tranquil weather is expected this weekend with
highs generally remaining a few degrees below average. Prior model
runs showed some upper-level ridging over the middle Ohio Valley by
Sunday; however, recent model runs show little change in the upper-
level height pattern over the northeastern United States, leading to
cooler than average weather for much of the Northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Thursday...

Cool, dry and tranquil weather will likely continue Monday and
Tuesday next week. There is some growing model agreement that
another significant cold front and upper-level trough will approach
the eastern U.S. by the middle or late portion of next week. This
could bring some much needed precipitation to the area, but there is
still plenty of model inconsistency regarding the timing and amount
of any precip. The best chance looks to be Thursday or Friday with
the passage of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1234 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions are mostly expected for the next 24 hours across
KCRW, KBKW, and KHTS. At KEKN, patchy IFR valley fog can be
expected early Friday morning (likely between 08Z and 14Z).
MVFR to IFR low stratus is expected at KPKB and KCKB between 09Z
and 15Z.

Light westerly winds are expected the rest of today. Another
cold front will pass from the west overnight. Northwesterly
winds are expected Friday afternoon, which can be occasionally
gusty at times (10-15 kts).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR fog cannot be ruled out for a
brief time early Friday morning at other TAF sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in patchy river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature of 48 degrees was set at Huntington,
WV today. This breaks the old record of 49 degrees set in 1986.

A record low temperature of 45 degrees was tied at Parkersburg,
WV today, matching the old record set in 1986.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC

CLIMATE...