124
FXUS61 KRLX 271055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
555 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning colder and remaining breezy through Friday. Mountain
snow showers are expected Thanksgiving night. Dry for the start
of the weekend before becoming active again next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...

Updated for T/Td/RH over the next couple hours to account for
current conditions and trends, but otherwise no other changes
were made to the forecast.


As of 1240 AM Thursday...

`Twas the night before Thanksgiving and all through the CWA,
the wind gusts stayed strong enough to blow inflatable reindeer
away. Winds remain strong on the higher ridges, with gusts
still in the 40-50mph range, so the Wind Advisory will remain in
effect for the northern mountain zones into the morning hours
of Thanksgiving.

Some light radar returns early tonight over the northern half
of the CWA have been reaching the surface as flurries or light
snow in spots based on a survey of area traffic cameras. Going
through the night, this activity is likely to reduce in area,
with just a few snow showers lingering around the northern
mountains heading towards sunrise. This may give a Thanksgiving
morning dusting to our higher ridges, beyond the man-made snow
ski areas have started cranking out as the temperatures dropped
below freezing. Highs will remain in the 20s to low 30s for the
mountains today, with 30s for most of the lower elevations.

As wind gusts drop a bit on the ridges during the day tomorrow,
increased diurnal mixing means the gusts may actually increase a
bit in the lowlands, but generally staying in the 20-30mph range
for lower elevations. We could see some sunshine work into the
southwestern and central parts of the CWA, but the northern part
is forecast to remain on the cloudy side, and upslope flow
against the mountains may keep clouds hanging against at least
the central and northern WV mountains.

Heading into tonight, the base of the upper-level trough will
swing across the area. The bit of extra lift from from the
trough passing will likely produce some snow showers over the
northern part of the CWA and especially in the mountains. Once
the base of the trough passes, the low and mid-level flow will
actually become a bit more favorable for upslope snow showers,
and we have some mountain snow showers lingering into Friday
morning. Tonight will also be quite cold, with low to mid 20s
for lows in the lowlands, and teens in the mountains (where wind
chills will likely dip below zero). Wind gusts will drop in the
lowlands a bit overnight, but likely increase again with the
trough passage. At this time, the potential gusts are much more
marginal for reaching Wind Advisory criteria compared to the
current gusts, so we agreed with neighbors to hold off on any
potential advisory for Thursday night for the time being.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Snow showers are forecast to continue in the northern mountains
and there western slopes into at least Friday morning. Looking
at time-height cross-sections, it would not be at all
surprising to see some light showers continue into Friday
afternoon, but for the time being, in coordination with
neighbors, we end the snow showers around midday on Friday.
Total snow from Thursday night into Friday morning will likely
be on the light side for most, but some of the favored snow
locations around Snowshoe and Kumbrabow might see a couple of
inches of fresh snow. It will stay cold and breezy on Friday,
with lowland highs in the 30s, while the mountains will stay in
the upper teens or 20s, with wind chills staying in the single
digits above and below zero.

Regardless, high pressure moving in by Friday night will cut
off the snow potential in the mountains, as well as bringing
briefly clearer skies and calmer winds across the area into
Saturday morning. However, high-level and mid-level clouds from
the next system moving east from the High Plains will start to
spread over the area by midday on Saturday, so any sunshine may
be fleeting. As the surface high slides east of the mountains
during the day on Saturday, developing SE-S`ly breezes will
start to push milder air into the CWA. The warming compared to
Friday will be most noticeable in the southern coalfields, where
highs may boost well into the 40s, while areas north of the Ohio
River may struggle to get much warmer than Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Precipitation from the next system will start to move into the
CWA later Saturday night, persisting through Sunday before
tapering off sometime Sunday evening or night. The precipitation
type forecast at the start of this system, as temperatures are
forecast to dip back below freezing across the area heading for
Saturday night. While some model soundings show a strong enough
warm nose aloft to make freezing rain or sleet a possibility,
others show the 700-850mb temps staying below freezing, making a
rain/snow scenario more likely. Given the forecast for the low
pressure system to lift northwest of us, this would seem to
favor a scenario where it would be more of a rain-to-snow event
as the low-level S`ly winds scour out the cold air, with little
or no wintry mix. We coordinated with neighbors to keep any
mention of freezing rain or sleet out of the forecast for now.

The bulk of guidance seems to have coalesced around the solution
that has a break in between systems on Monday. Uncertainty
increases on the speed and track of the next system expected to
affect the area sometime between Monday night and Tuesday
night, so POPs are kept under 50% for the time being. High
pressure trailing that system looks likely to bring some dry
weather to the area for mid-week, regardless.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 540 AM Thursday...

Winds remain gusty heading into the morning, though as expected
a bit less gusty than yesterday afternoon and evening. However,
the W-WNW`ly winds will persist through Thanksgiving, perhaps
increasing a bit late morning through the afternoon as we mix
down some stronger gusts. Generally expect gusts of 15-25kts to
be the prevailing conditions through the TAF period, though
after 00z Friday, gusts may intermittently drop out similar to
this past night, especially at HTS and CRW.


Aside from the winds, indications are that it should be a mostly
VFR day, though we will need to watch for the potential for some
MVFR ceilings to work into the northern sites, especially CKB
and EKN, later this morning into the afternoon. Some guidance
hints at that occurring, and upstream clouds over central Ohio
are pretty close - generally FL030-040. For now, the ceilings
are kept VFR, but did put in a TEMPO MVFR group at both CKB and
EKN. Additionally, some snow showers are expected in the
northern mountains after 00z, and if they also impact EKN, some
MVFR ceilings and/or visibility will be possible, so a PROB30
group was introduced late in the TAF period to account for that.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Surface gust intensity may oscillate through
the period. A few periods of MVFR ceilings are possible for EKN
and CKB today, and again overnight at EKN if snow-showers
materialize.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in areas of rain and/or snow late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK