Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
963 FXUS61 KRNK 151049 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 649 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas today, followed by high pressure through Sunday. Unseasonably warm temperatures build into the region next week. The chance of precipitation will be limited for much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Saturday... Key message: - Probability of precipitation low today and tonight National Weather Service radar detected isolated showers in western Greenbrier County early this morning. A cold front was crossing the area from north to south and will reach the Virginia/North Carolina border around 12Z/8AM then continue south through the Carolinas today. Behind the front surface dew points lower into the 40s and 50s and the precipitable water drops into the 0.5 to 1.0 inch range. The air mass is stable behind the front and the chance for any showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge this afternoon and evening. The wind turns from the northwest to the northeast today then to the east and southeast tonight. Even though the wind speed remains below 10 mph clouds may bank up along the east slopes of the southern Appalachians late tonight. Will keep forecast high temperature within the 25th to 75th percentile range shown by the NBM 4.2. The probability of having a maximum temperature above 90s degrees today is 15 to 25 percent along the Roanoke Valley and east in to the piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1. Mostly dry and warm through the period. Main concern through the early half of next week is the developing dome of upper level high pressure over the Southeast states, and the well above-normal afternoon warmth that it will bring for Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will push off the coast of New England on Sunday, allowing surface winds across the Mid-Atlantic shift shift more from the southeast, drawing increasingly moist air across our area from the Carolina coast, bumping up humidity. The pattern is still in the process of developing on Sunday, with temperatures holding mainly in the 80s for our area. However, the dome of upper level high pressure becomes better established by Monday, allowing temperatures to feel like the upper 80s to the mid-90s during both Monday and Tuesday afternoons for the Piedmont and the river valleys across the mountains. The higher mountain ridges will remain cooler. Factor in abundant sunshine and light winds both days for the lower elevations, and there is an increased risk of heat-related health issues, especially among those that are sensitive to excessive warmth or are outdoors for extended periods of time. Precautions against the heat include having an abundance of cool non-alcoholic beverages available, wearing light and loose fitting clothing, and having access to a shaded and/or air conditioned area. Decent recovery will occur overnight however as temperatures fall back into the 60s for lows. In addition to the warmth, will be keeping an eye on isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms forming mainly along the mountain ridgelines each afternoon and evening. This activity will develop with daytime heating, most of which will then fizzle toward sunset with the loss of that heating. Can`t rule out that a few storms will become strong to severe for brief periods of time, producing locally damaging wind gusts, but the threat for any severe storms remains low. Forecast confidence is high. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1. Above-normal warmth will persist during the 2nd half of the coming workweek. 2. Mainly dry, with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the second half of the coming workweek as a dome of upper level high pressure remains situated over the Mid-Atlantic. This will maintain above- normal warmth across the region that, when combined with abundant sunshine and light winds, will result in temperatures each afternoon feeling like the upper 80s to the mid 90s for the Piedmont and the river valleys across the mountains. Upper level high pressure will also continue to limit all but isolated and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity that develops with afternoon heating and diminishes toward sunset. Forecast confidence is high. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Saturday... Other than patchy valley fog early this morning, VFR expected through the TAF period. The wind turns from the northwest to the northeast today then to the east and southeast tonight. Even though the wind speed remains below 10 mph clouds may bank up along the east slopes of the southern Appalachians late tonight. Any MVFR clouds will stay south of the local TAF sites. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will build back over the region for early next week. Aside for some morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be limited for much of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/BMG