Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
349 FXUS61 KRNK 192344 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 744 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather expected Sunday through Wednesday as a front remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending cooler by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected Sunday through Wednesday as a front remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending cooler by Wednesday. Stalled front to our south will return as a warm front Sunday, only to clash with another southward moving upper level trough Monday and Tuesday. A wholesale uptick in rain chances are expected for both Monday and Tuesday. 48 hour probabilistic ensemble guidance indicates 80 percent chance for 0.50, 50% chance of 1.00 and 25% chance of 1.50 or more. This is good news since we are in need of the rain. By Wednesday the upper trough digs in from the northwest while the front shifts southeast. Cooler air from the north with high pressure wedge will have our highs Wednesday running 10 to 15 degrees below normal, followed by a gradual return to near normal temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR across the area this evening, outside of MVFR ceilings and vsbys within a line of heavy rain and storms stretching from southwest VA into northwest NC. This activity should continue moving southeasterly, weakening with time, and should diminish before 05Z Sunday. with plenty of moisture in the region and getting trapped underneath a subsidence inversion overnight, ceilings will once again lower into the MVFR or lower range through Sunday morning, with some patchy fog reducing visibilities between 3 to 5SM in the river and mountain valleys. KLWB looks to see the lowest vsbys, with less than 1SM at times. Ceilings will lift and fog will dissipate soon after sunrise, between 12 and 14Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by Sunday early to mid afternoon in the west, and reaching the Piedmont by late afternoon to early evening. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Shower/storm chances increase Monday and Tuesday with numerous to widespread coverage. During this time expect periods of sub- VFR conditions and potential heavy rain. Fog at night can also be expected, especially in the mountain valleys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS/PM AVIATION...AS/PM