299
FXUS61 KRNK 152221
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather into the first part of the weekend. Cooler
air behind a mid-week front may provide some mountain frost
Friday morning. Next opportunity for rain will accompany a
stronger front on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Temperatures drop back a few degrees closer to normal, but
still expecting nice fall weather.

A dry front has moved through today, reinforcing cooler and
drier air and bringing some northerly wind gusts to the area.
Dense high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will build in
slowly. This will support mostly clear skies overnight, with
parts of the Greenbrier Valley seeing fog/low stratus again
tomorrow morning, especially near riverbeds. This morning`s
fog/stratus has been slow to clear, but with the frontal
passage, mixing finally broke up this low level moisture.

Overnight, there is a 90 to 100% chance for temperatures at or
greater than 40F for the mountains, with the cooler mountain
valleys dipping below this with weak CAA pushing in tonight.
The Piedmont will be in the mid to upper 40s. Cooler
temperatures compared to what we have seen lately will continue
into Thursday, with the mountains generally below 65F, and the
Piedmont seeing a 70 to 100% likelihood of seeing 70F or warmer.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Dry through much of the period.
2. Frost and freezing conditions expected across portions of the
mountains Thursday night into early Friday morning.
3. Temperatures trending milder into the start of the weekend.

A look at the 15 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Thursday night a closed low and associated
trough extending from the Dakotas to the Four Corners region.
A ridge is expected to stretch from the Lower Mississippi Valley
north into the western Great Lakes. Low pressure will be in the
western Atlantic, off the coast of the Canadian Maritimes. For
Friday/Friday night, the rough-ridge-trough pattern shifts east
a bit, placing the ridge axis over western Quebec south to the
SE US and the western CONUS trough over the Central and Northern
Plains states. For Saturday/Saturday night, the shift eastward
in the wave pattern continues. By the evening hours the ridge
axis is expected to be over or just east of our region. The
trough is expected to be over the Mississippi Valley. Another
shortwave trough is expected to move onshore the coastal region
of the Pacific Northwest with a shortwave ridge over ID.

At the surface, on Thursday a broad area of high pressure will
extend south from Quebec to the SE US. Low pressure will be
located in the western Atlantic off the coast of the Canadian
Maritimes. For Friday/Friday night, the ridge axis shifts to
over our region. Low pressure develops across far western
Ontario with a cold front extending south into the Central
Plains. For Saturday/Saturday night, the axis of the ridge
shifts to along the US east coast. The Canadian low heads north
to near James Bay with its associated cold front extending south
to just east of the Mississippi River Valley by the evening
hours.

A look at the 15 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures on Friday around +10C over the
area. For Saturday, values increase to around +14C. These values
correspond to the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year CFSR
climatology over western sections of the region.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High
pressure across our region will provide for dry weather through
at least Saturday. On Thursday night, we are expecting the
coldest night of the three as the ridge axis is directly
overhead with light winds. Frost for several locations across
the mountains looks promising with freezing conditions for much
of the eastern sections of eastern Greenbrier County. Will
likely issue a Freeze Watch for this area for late Thursday
night into early Friday morning. On Saturday into Saturday night
with the center of the high shifting east and the approach of
the front to our west, low level flow will become more
southerly. This will help temperatures moderate, with clouds on
the increase Saturday night. By late Saturday night, we may
start seeing some isolated showers across far western sections
of the region.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend
milder, with values notably above normal by Saturday.

Confidence in the expected is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Showers expected, primarily west and north, for Sunday and
Sunday night.
2. Drier but gusty conditions for Monday.
3. Small chance of showers west for Tuesday.
4. Temperatures above normal with some fluctuation.

A look a the 15 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Sunday/Sunday night the ridge axis of the US
east  coast shifts to over the Canadian Maritime region. A
shortwave trough trends negatively tilted and extends from
central Ontario into the Tennessee Valley. A ridge moves east to
over the lee of the Rockies, a shortwave trough moves over the
Pacific Northwest. For Monday/Monday night, the trough over the
Tennessee valley makes slow progress northeast to over New
England. A flattened ridge moves into the mid-Mississippi and
Lower Ohio Valleys. A trough deepens and broadens from MT to
Baja California. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, a trough continues
to make slow progress northeast, exiting the New England area
for the St. Lawrence Seaway region. A flattening ridge continues
to lose its definition, with a zonal flow the result over our
region. A shortwave trough is expected to head west to east
north of this zonal flow into the western Great Lakes region. A
trough holds fast just upstream of the Four Corners region. For
Wednesday, zonal flow continues across our region. A ill formed
trough starts to eject eastward from the Four Corners region,
and a shortwave trough moves across Ontario/Quebec.

At the surface, for Sunday/Sunday night, the cold front shifts
east an is expected to over our region by the evening hours. A
high pressure ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley while
another low forms over southern Alberta. For Monday/Monday
night, the center of an area of high pressure moves southeast
and will be centered near the Carolinas. Low pressure will be
rounding the north side of this high, over New England by the
evening hours. A cold front will be positioned across the
Central Plains with a possible closed low along it near CO/KS.
For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the New England low shifts east into
the western Atlantic. A ridge of high pressure continues across
the SE US with its centered now off shore the coast of the
Carolinas. For Wednesday, a broad region of high pressure
continues across the SE US. Low pressure deepens near James Bay.

A look at the 15 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures for Sunday trending lower to
around +8C to +10C, nw-se across the region by the early evening
hours. For Monday, continue around +8C to +10C, but with
orientation more on the order of ne-sw. For Tuesday, values inch
upward to +11C to +12C. For Wednesday, values dip again to
around +8C to +10C, n-s.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. A cold
front crosses the region on Sunday into Sunday night with
associated showers. The greatest probabilities will be over
western and northern portions of the region. These showers will
be short lived as high pressure quickly returns to the region by
Monday afternoon. We could see our first of the season gusty
wind condition post-cold front across the region on Monday.

Much of the region is expected to be on the dry side Tuesday
into Wednesday. However, we may see some shower activity in
the west associated with low pressure crossing Canada.
Confidence is low to the degree of probability thanks to an
array of solutions among the ensemble members. After an initial
small dip in temperatures Monday, values are expected to
increase again on Tuesday. Depending upon the magnitude of the
cold front, Tuesday, temperatures may dip a bit again for
Wednesday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario moderate regarding the
shower potential on Sunday, but low regarding showers on
Tuesday. The expected temperature trend is moderate confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 620 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR expected throughout this TAF period. Brief exceptions exist
in the mountain valleys for fog again overnight tonight. Drier
air behind a front should clear skies up a little sooner
Thursday morning as opposed to this morning, which took until
16Z to lift in BLF and LWB.

Northerly and northwesterly winds are gusting to 15kts or so.
These decrease tonight after sunset, then become gusty again
Friday.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions remain through the rest of this period. Cannot
rule out fog at LWB in the typical 09-14z time frame, but with
drier airmass fog will be confined to near river valleys. The
next chance of rain will come Sunday into Monday with periods of
MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for VAZ020-024.
NC...None.
WV...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
     for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...CG/DS
LONG TERM...CG/DS
AVIATION...BMG/SH