580
FXUS61 KRNK 142331
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
631 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface low tracking through the Great Lakes region on
Saturday and Sunday may bring some light rain showers to the
mountains; however, chances remain low, with the best chances
remaining across SE West Virginia. Dry and windy conditions in
the wake of the low may increase fire weather concerns once
again on Sunday. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday as
another system pushes through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and dry under broad high pressure.

A few isolated rain showers have developed in parts of central
and eastern WV so far this evening, but otherwise the weather
remains quiet. Some rain showers look to reach parts of SE WV
late tonight, but are not expected to make it much farther past
the WV/VA state line. Clouds will continue to increase through
the overnight, with moisture advection increasing over the area.
Tomorrow will be even warmer than recent days, with gusty winds
through the day.



Previous discussion below...


As of 200 PM EST Friday...

A warm front lifting north through northern West Virginia and
Pennsylvania overnight and into Saturday morning will bring
chances for some light upslope showers to portions of SE West
Virginia through the early morning hours Saturday. Outside of SE
West Virginia, the rest of the area should remain dry on
Saturday. This aforementioned warm front will be in association
with a surface low that is expected to track through the
northern Great Lakes region on Saturday. Ahead of this low, a
tight pressure gradient accompanied by a southwest 40-50 knot
850mb LLJ will move over the region Saturday afternoon. These
combined factors look to slowly increase winds and wind gusts
throughout the day on Saturday areawide, with Mountain locations
likely seeing the highest gusts. Towards the evening hours on
Saturday, a cold front is expected to quickly approach from the
west, but does not look to pass through the area until Sunday.

Overall, with the region being in the warm sector of this
surface low on Saturday, temperatures will climb to above
average values for this time of the year. Highs will generally
climb into the low 70s east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid
60s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm Sunday before cold front arrives to cool things down and
   bring a chance of precipitation.

2) Windy conditions following front raises fire weather concern.

Model guidance continues to show a surface low pressure system
making its way across the Great Lakes and into northern New England.
This system will bring in a cold front Sunday and a chance of
precipitation for the western portion of the forecast area. Things
will be a bit warm for this time of year until the cooler weather
after the front moves in. Sunday afternoon high temperatures will
likely be in the mid-50s to upper 60s, potentially reaching 70F in
the Piedmont/Foothills. Dew points will also be much higher than
normal for this time of year with values in the 40s and 50s. Rain
showers will be limited to the western mountain counties, and
accumulations only up to 0.10" are expected.

After the front passes, cooler and drier air returns. The weather
becomes calm and benign as a surface high pressure system moves
into the Mid-Atlantic from the Canadian Great Plains. Before
the high pressure gets here, however, winds from the cold front
will pick up considerably. Sustained winds are likely to be
between 10-15 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph with higher values at
ridgetops due to an impressive low level jet at 850mb with winds
of 40-50 mph. Model guidance suggests relative humidity values
between 20-30% Sunday afternoon and in the teens Monday
afternoon. With high winds, lack of rain, and an influx of dry
air, conditions are favorable for rapid fire spread. This will
be monitored in the coming days for impacts and updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Additional rain chance later this week from low pressure system.

2) Higher than normal temperatures for the rest of the week.

Models are having considerable agreement on what to expect for the
rest of the week. A low pressure system to our west will provide an
extended warm front stretching eastward towards the east coast. This
front will likely move north enough to provide a chance of
precipitation for the region. Precipitation is possible as early as
Tuesday morning for the entire area but is higher west of the Blue
Ridge. Early morning freezing temperatures may result in some snow
mixing in with the rain, especially in West Virginia, but the
dominant precipitation type is forecast to be rain. A large surface
high pressure system just to our north will determine how far north
the warm front goes. It very well could block most the low pressure
system`s path so this system will be monitored in the coming days.

There is a brief quiet period before another surface low develops
off the Rockies and pushes a cold front towards the region. This
frontal system will likely give another round of precipitation but
the timing and impacts are uncertain as of now. Otherwise, a mid-
level ridge builds over Florida with its ridge axis stretching into
the Mid-Atlantic. There will be a warming trend where temperatures
may be a little higher than normal for this time of year with highs
in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions prevail across the area and will continue for
much of the current TAF period for most terminals. However,
ceilings will lower to MVFR for KLWB and KBLF after 06Z
Saturday, as a front approaches the area from the west, and
could also bring a few hours of rain showers through about 14Z
or so. However, the MVFR ceilings will continue off and on through
much of the TAF period for those two WV terminals. Visibility
restrictions are not anticipated with any rain through the TAF
period.

Southwesterly to westerly winds between 5 to 10 knots will
continue through the remainder of the evening, but will increase
once again after 06Z, and gusts between 15 to 20 knots is likely
for all terminals along and west of the Blue Ridge by 12Z
Saturday. Gusts will continue to increase through the TAF
period, with even KLYH and KDAN seeing gusts between 15 to 20
knots after 20Z Saturday. Some low level westerly wind shear up
to 35 knots is possible for KBCB and KLWB as a low level jet
strengthens across the mountains between 06Z and 12Z, and
possibly KROA, but confidence is too low to include in the KROA
TAF at this time.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Conditions should be mainly VFR through Wednesday, outside any
mountain rain showers that may bring local sub-VFR cigs to
mountain TAF sites. Gusty winds continue through Monday, with
the strongest gusts expected on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1) Gusty conditions return Saturday, but more moisture increases
   RH areawide.

2) Gusty and dry conditions return on Sunday, with fire weather
   concerns returning.


Temperatures will trend warmer into the upcoming weekend.
Warmest readings are forecast along and east of the Blue Ridge
where readings will return to above normal. Caveat, there will
be some clouds and showers around and a bit higher Rh, so there
is a trade off. Winds will increase again over the weekend, so
not totally out of the woods with respect to wind either. Dry
air looks to return on Sunday, with windy conditions lingering.
This may increase fire weather concerns across the area once
again, with possible fire danger statements needing to be issued
for portions of the area.

In a nutshell, several more days of heightened awareness.

As for rain potential...little or no measurable rain is
expected until middle of next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...AS/EB
FIRE WEATHER...BMG/PM