322
FXUS61 KRNK 011735
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
135 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles in over the area today, keeping the
weather dry. A low pressure system will approach from the west
on Sunday, and then pass to the south of the area by Monday,
bringing increased chances for precipitation to the mountains
Sunday morning, and then to the Piedmont by Monday. High
pressure returns to the region after that to provide dry weather
through most of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather for today, low chances for rain Sunday in the
mountains.

2. Near, to just below, normal temperatures.

Current surface analysis shows a large surface high pressure
system centered over the southeast US, with a cold front
extending from a low pressure system over the Great Lakes into
the Arklatex region.

Subsidence from the surface high will keep the weather dry for the
local forecast area through at least Sunday morning. Looking aloft,
a deepening upper level low will swing from the upper Midwest into
the southeast and Carolinas through the weekend. Meanwhile, the
cold front moves closer to the area, and the surface high pushes
farther north with the cold front sliding to the south. With
some moisture advection ahead of the front, and some increasing
return flow as west to northwesterly winds today turn easterly
tomorrow, could see a slight chance for rain in the mountains
Sunday. However, models have been trending drier with this
frontal passage. Most of the initial moisture will have to
overcome the dry airmass currently over the region, and so
confidence is lower in any measurable rainfall during the near
term forecast period. The better moisture looks to come late
Sunday into Monday as the upper low skirts to the south of the
area.

Cloud cover will increase today mainly in the west, as the westerly,
downsloping winds will keep skies partly to mostly sunny in the
east. Overnight, as the westerly winds diminish, expect cloud cover
to expand eastward, which will temper radiational cooling and keep
lows up to 5 degrees above seasonal norms, in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. Afternoon highs will be right around normal, to a few
degrees below, in the low to mid 50s in the west and low 60s in
the east, for today and Sunday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain showers possible on Monday.

2. Dry conditions again Tuesday with above normal temperatures.

An upper wave will move out of the Tennessee Valley and into the
Carolinas on Monday. This will result in a few showers, mainly
confined to locations east of the mountains. Widespread rainfall is
not anticipated as the upper wave remains neutrally tilted as it
passes south of our area. This disturbance will continue east into
the Atlantic Monday night as high pressure quickly builds into the
region from the west for Tuesday.

Dry and sunny conditions expected on Tuesday with high pressure
overhead. Above normal temperatures, rising into the 60s by the
afternoon. Overnight lows cool, mainly in the upper 30s to low
40s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Aside from low chances of mountains showers on Wednesday
night and Friday night, most of this forecast period stays dry.

2. Temperatures will run near or slightly above normal for this
time of year.

High pressure will keep conditions dry on Wednesday amidst a mild
southwest flow, but it should head offshore by Wednesday night as a
cold front passes to the north. Only a low chance of showers may
reach western Greenbrier County during this frontal passage.
Otherwise, the flow will swing towards the northwest to make
Thursday a bit cooler but still close to normal values for early
November. Another area of high pressure should continue the stretch
of dry weather into Friday. By Friday night, a slightly more potent
cold front could reach the Appalachian Mountains to give a chance of
showers. However, most of the moisture may stay west of the Blue
Ridge. Weak high pressure should return on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are presently observed across the area, and
afternoon cumulus has developed in the westerly flow west of the
Blue Ridge, with some upper level cirrus passing over the
region. Cloud cover will increase through the evening and
overnight, skies becoming BKN to OVC for all terminals along and
west of the Blue Ridge not long after 00Z Sunday, as a front
nears the area, but ceilings look to remain VFR at this time.
KLYH and KDAN will see increasing cloud cover through Sunday, by
the end of the current TAF period, as easterly flow ahead of
the front starts to bring in additional moisture in. A few hours
of light rain is possible for KBLF after 06Z Sunday, but will
likely not expand much farther to the east.

Breezy west winds today, with gusts up to 20 possible, will
diminish overnight, becoming light and variable for most, and
calm in the valleys. Winds increase and turn easterly after
daybreak Sunday, after 14Z or so.

Forecast confidence is moderate.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Chances for rain and sub-VFR conditions increase in the Piedmont
and Foothills late Sunday night into Monday morning. Conditions
improve after Monday afternoon, and look to remain VFR through
at least Wednesday. The passage of dry cold front Wednesday
will bring breezy winds, but only limited precipitation chances
to southeast WV.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
NEAR TERM...AS
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AS