Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
375 FXUS61 KRNK 012347 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 747 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain situated across the Mid-Atlantic and stay wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians through the midweek. High pressure then slides east during the Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will approach on Thursday, bringing a chance for organized showers and thunderstorms into early Friday. && .UPDATED NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Monday... Slight changes made to the forecast to account for recent temperature observations and updated model guidance. Scattered cloudy conditions continue and will have a small influence on how low temperatures drop tonight. Overnight to early Tuesday morning scattered patchy fog is possible, especially near rivers and bodies of water. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Dry weather is expected through Tuesday A fall-like start to meteorological fall, with temperatures running around 5-8 degrees below normal. This in part to upper trough/low over the mid-Atlantic combined with high pressure wedging from the northeast. This is not a "dirty" wedge we are more familiar with where we have low clouds/drizzle and patchy rain. This is a dry wedge with scattered fair weather cu, so temperatures despite being below normal are not way below if it were cloudy. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to around 50 in the mountains to lower to mid 50s piedmont. Moisture with inverted surface trough over TN/KY may shift toward our far SW VA counties later Tuesday but any storms should stay southwest of there, with some increase in cumulus field. Highs will be in the 70s areawide, maybe approaching 80 across southside VA into the NC Piedmont. Confidence in the near term is high. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1030 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Increasing chances of showers after the middle of the week. Late Tuesday and into Wednesday, a wedge set up covering the areas east of the Blue Ridge will begin to erode as the driving parent high moves its center off the New England coast and out to sea. A weak shortwave embedded in a larger trough covering most of the east coast will pass near the Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley. There will be enough of a sufficient disturbance to introduce a slight chance of showers and storms west of the Blue Ridge. Models are in fairly good agreement that this wave will not be strong enough nor far east enough to spread precipitation east of the Blue Ridge. Thursday will be much more active and showers will be more widespread, though high probabilities for more coverage exist in the mountains. A front will come out of the Upper Midwest and enter the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Showers and storms will spread from west to east and impact the entire CWA at some point. The front will begin to slow as it becomes cut off from its occluding parent low in the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than we`ve grown accustomed to in the cool August and closer to normal. Highs in the low 80s towards the Piedmont, ranging to the low 70s in the western mountain zones of far western VA and NC. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1100 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Calm and cooling temperature trend over the weekend Thursday`s cold front will continue to lose momentum as the parent system continues to occlude and become spatially separated. It will float to our south by weekend`s start, where cooler high pressure will replace it over our heads. Dry high pressure will again take hold for the weekend and into early next week, cooling us down slightly. Temperatures will generally run around normal for this period, dropping just under after the frontal passage. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Monday... Few to scattered cloud cover for most of the region overnight and into Tuesday with most terminals at VFR for the next 24 hours. Patchy fog will be spotty throughout the area with KLWB and KBCB the most likely to receive fog overnight and into sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure wedging with a relatively dry air mass will continue into Tuesday. Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions, with some patchy fog at specific locations, are likely to persist for most of the week until a cold front arrives to provide a chance of sub-VFR skies on Thursday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF/WP NEAR TERM...CG/WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...CG