Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
682 FXUS61 KRNK 301723 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 123 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Lowered PoPs and temperatures Saturday with wedge in place. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warming trend peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage. 1) The current period of dry and clear weather ends late Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend peaks Friday, with a cold air wedge building in for the weekend behind a cold front passage. Upper level ridging is expected to build over the southeast states, with the northern periphery likely across the Ohio valley and Mid- Atlantic states region. This will allow for increasing temperatures through Friday before the arrival of a cold front pushes into the region late on Friday. Behind this cold front, surface high pressure is expected to slide from the northern Great lakes region into the Northeast, which will briefly lead to cold air wedging developing over VA/NC Saturday and Sunday. This will dramatically cool temperatures areawide back to normal or just below normal for the weekend. The possibility of a secondary shortwave trough and stronger cold front look to push into the region late Monday into Tuesday, which looks to reinforce the cooler air into midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2: The current period of dry and clear weather ends late Friday into the weekend with increasing chances for rain. With the approach of a cold front on Friday night, and moisture from the remnants from Polo overriding the front, the region looks to be in store for a couple days of cool and rainy conditions through the weekend. Specifics on rainfall totals are still uncertain at this time, as ensemble model guidance has shifted towards the surface high pressure and dry air aloft inhibiting rainfall production across the area. The cutoff line of dry vs moist air is quite evident and sharp, and the placement of this line as the frontal boundary stalls will play a great role in how much precipitation the area sees over the weekend. If this line remains across northern VA, much of the area will see beneficial rainfall; however, if this line of drier air penetrates further south beyond the I-64 corridor, then much of the area will miss out on any heavy rainfall. We dry out next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect VFR conditions into this evening with some high clouds, and isolated fair wx cu. Fog appears likely again late tonight especially at LWB and BCB, where LIFR vsbys or lower possible. Less confidence elsewhere on fog. Any fog/low stratus erodes by 14z Thu. Winds will be southerly/southwesterly around 5 knots this afternoon becoming calm/light/variable tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will keep mostly VFR conditions through Friday, except for morning fog in mountain and river valleys. By Friday afternoon and evening, expect increasing cloud cover and precipitation through the weekend, with MVFR or lower conditions, especially Saturday and Sunday. NE to E winds develop over the weekend for TAF sites east of the Blue Ridge as cold air damming begins. Winds will be more variable over the mountains initially before turning ESE Saturday night. Cigs/vsbys improve to VFR early next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EB/WP AVIATION...AS/EB/WP