Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
859 FXUS61 KRNK 021014 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 614 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation update. Forecast remains on track for scattered showers and storms in the mountains today, with cooler temps, followed by a warming trend and dry weather for the rest of the week. Next chance for precipitation will come late in the weekend and early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this afternoon. Dry weather with warming temperatures through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this afternoon. Dry weather with warming temperatures through the rest of the week. A 500mb trough will sharpen over the northeastern US, extending into the Mid Atlantic through today, while a surface low develops along a front draped across the southeastern states. A weak shortwave rounds through the base of the trough, which will be enough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, the highest chances over the mountains, where the terrain will provide additional lift. There is some variation in CAM guidance as to how much coverage of precipitation there will be today, but most agree that it will be generally confined to along and west of the I-81 corridor. With limited moisture, dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s and PWATs less than an inch, rainfall totals will be light, with a tenth of an inch being the high end of the range, though most locations will see nothing to a couple hundredths. A broad surface high will push south from the Great Lakes region, and help keep temperatures on the cooler side today, high temperatures reaching the mid 60s in the mountains to mid 70s in the Piedmont. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s tonight/Wednesday morning. As the high and dry airmass becomes more settled overhead by Wednesday, upper ridging over the central US and Midwest will also expand eastward through the week. The ridge does begin to flatten towards the weekend, as a couple shortwaves move through the northern stream flow and the trough once over the eastern seaboard begins to move farther out to sea. Temperatures will start on a warming trend, and highs will climb back into the 80s areawide, to low 90s in the Piedmont and Southside by the end of the work week. High pressure will also keep the weather dry and quiet for the rest of the week, and dewpoints remain low, so the heat later in the week will not feel too oppressive. That being said, the NWS HeatRisk tool does have a Moderate risk of heat related impacts for Friday through Sunday over the Piedmont, meaning the heat may affect those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling and/or hydration. The next system that could bring some precipitation to the area does not arrive until at least Sunday, although model solutions begin to diverge late in the weekend and early next week with the evolution of a 500mb trough over the Great Lakes and a front dropping south towards the area. The surface high shifts offshore and increasing south to southwesterly return flow will also bring in additional moisture, which could help spark some afternoon showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday. However, the coverage and organization of any convection will be influenced the trough and surface front, so forecast uncertainty does increase after Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue for most locations through the TAF period, through Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and storms are possible in the mountains this afternoon, which could bring periods of sub-VFR visibility and/or ceilings, and could bring gusty and erratic winds. Given this chance for showers and thunderstorms, some VCTS has been included at mountain terminals except ROA for this afternoon and evening. Overall though, winds will be light and variable into the early morning hours, turning more northeasterly in the foothills and Piedmont, but more easterly in the mountains, through the day today. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will wane after 00Z Wednesday. Towards the early morning hours, some river valley fog looks likely at LWB. This fog may lead to some MVFR to LIFR restrictions briefly during the early morning hours prior to sunrise. Any restrictions from valley fog should quickly dissipate just after sunrise Wednesday morning. All other terminals look to remain VFR during the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will build in by Wednesday morning, keeping dry and quiet conditions across all terminals for several days. VFR conditions will persist through at least Saturday, with the only potential drop in flight conditions being patchy nighttime fog, mainly for the mountain and river valleys, though the dry airmass in place could keep fog development limited. Otherwise, pleasant weather continues and VFR conditions will prevail for most of the work week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AS AVIATION...AS/EB